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A report asserted that Iran has been acquiring and deploying a range of missiles and naval platforms to strike at shipping and energy facilities of its Gulf Arab neighbors. The report by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments said Iran wants to intimidate the United States from operating in the Gulf.

"Iran, with military-technical support from China, North Korea, and Russia, seems intent on developing and fielding a range of A2/AD [anti-access, area denial] capabilities, to include ballistic and cruise missiles -- possibly equipped with WMD warheads -- mobile ASCMs [anti-ship cruise missiles] submarines, small high-speed coastal combatants, and advanced anti-ship mines," the report said.

The new Iranian warship Jamaran fires a missile, reported to be a Noor, a long-range anti-ship missile based on the Chinese C-802, in an exercise in the southern waters of Iran, on March 9.    AP/IIPA, Ebrahim Norouzi

The report, titled "Why AirSea Battle?", said Iran appeared determined to develop additional capabilities to block U.S. military operations in the Gulf region. The center said Iran could eventually endanger energy production facilities and pipelines of Gulf Cooperation Council states.

Authored by former Pentagon official Andrew Krepinevich, the report said Iran could take advantage of the Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which measures 33 nautical miles at its most narrow point. The report said Iran could use its more than 70 bases to attack U.S. and oil ships.

"The IRGC has also built an extensive network of tunnels and underground missile bunkers on these islands, creating what it calls 'static warships,'" the report said. "From this base of operations, Iran hopes to progressively raise the cost to any power -- the United States in particular -- that desires to maintain a military presence in the Persian Gulf."

The report envisioned Iranian mining, cruise missiles, swarming craft and suicide strikes. Eventually, Krepinevich said, Iran could begin to use nuclear weapons.

Iran was said to have an estimated inventory of up to 3,000 mines. IRGC also operates Chinese-origin fast attack craft and hundreds of patrol boats equipped with heavy machine guns and man-portable surface-to-air missiles.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia sees no reason to stall on the sale of its S-300 anti-aircraft systems to Iran, the Kremlin's powerful Security Council said Sunday, hours before the premier of Iran's adversary Israel was due to visit Moscow.

The possible sale of Russian air defense hardware to the Islamic Republic is a major irritant for both Israel and close ally the United States. Both have pressed Moscow not to go ahead with a deal that may help protect Iran's nuclear facilities from potential air strikes.

"There is a signed contract (to supply S-300 missiles) which we must implement, but deliveries have not started yet," Vladimir Nazarov, deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council secretary, told Interfax news agency in an interview.

"This deal is not restricted by any international sanctions, because the talk is about deliveries of an exclusively defensive weapon," he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was due to hold talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow on Monday, planning to push the Kremlin for urgent "crippling sanctions" against Iran over its nuclear program.

Medvedev chairs the Security Council.

"Israel believes that heavy pressure must be applied on Iran -- above all very severe sanctions, which were referred to by the U.S. secretary of state as 'crippling sanctions'," Netanyahu told the weekly cabinet meeting earlier Sunday.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says the nation will deliver a harsh blow to the "global arrogance" on this year's anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

"The Islamic Revolution opened a window to liberty for the human race, which was trapped in the dead ends of materialism," Ahmadinejad said during a cabinet meeting on Sunday.

"If the Islamic Revolution had not occurred, liberalism and Marxism would have crushed all human dignity in their power-seeking and money-grubbing claws. Nothing would have remained of human and spiritual principles," he added.

Ahmadinejad said that in the three decades of its history, the Islamic Revolution had inspired some great developments in the world.

The Iranian president made the remarks as the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution approaches.

Iranians are expected to pour into the streets on February 11 to celebrate the occasion in public rallies across the country, as they have done annually over the past three decades.

U.S. expanding missile defenses in Gulf

The deployments include expanded land-based Patriot defensive missile installations in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Bahrain, as well as Navy ships with missile defense systems within striking distance in and around the Mediterranean, officials said.

General David Petraeus, who as head of U.S. Central Command is responsible for military operations across the Middle East, said this month that the United States has stationed eight Patriot missile batteries in four Gulf countries, which he did not identify.

The buildup began under the Bush administration, but has expanded under President Barack Obama, who is pushing for a new round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.

Officials said the expansion was meant to increase protection for U.S. forces and key allies in the Gulf.

The chairman of the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, said last month the Pentagon must have military options ready to counter Iran should Obama call for them.

US raises stakes on Iran by sending in ships and missiles

Tension between the US and Iran heightened dramatically today with the disclosure that Barack Obama is deploying a missile shield to protect American allies in the Gulf from attack by Tehran.

The US is dispatching Patriot defensive missiles to four countries - Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait - and keeping two ships in the Gulf capable of shooting down Iranian missiles. Washington is also helping Saudi Arabia develop a force to protect its oil installations.

American officials said the move is aimed at deterring an attack by Iran and reassuring Gulf states fearful that Tehran might react to sanctions by striking at US allies in the region. Washington is also seeking to discourage Israel from a strike against Iran by demonstrating that the US is prepared to contain any threat.

Patriots are nice.

Missile shield and X band is nice.

But that is a JIMMY CARTER MESSAGE (announcing sending of 2 squadrons of F-15's to KSA, and then worrying over the 'message' announce they were unarmed)

Here is how you do it.

Deploy 100% of B-2's to Diego Garcia and or Guam publicly

Deploy several wings of F-15E strike eagles to Kuwait and Bahrain publicly

If they can get there in time, send in 3-4 aircraft carrier task forces publicly.

Send in several marine MAU groups with their carriers to NEAR but outside the gulf.

SAY LITTLE ELSE save the announcement of these movements, an announcement coming from the Pentagon spokesman, at a normal daily briefing, made without taking questions.

Iran Targets U.S. via Latin America

By Jamsheed Choksy & Carol E.B. Choksy

Hot on the heels of state visits last November between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Latin American counterparts Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Evo Morales of Bolivia, Iran's tentacles continue to enmesh Latin American nations. Make no mistake: the target is the United States.

Venezuela's nascent nuclear program seems primed to draw upon technical assistance via both legal and illegal proliferation by Iran's civilian and military programs. Venezuelan Mining Minister Rodolfo Sanz told reporters in September that "Iranian and Venezuelan experts are jointly conducting surveys to find uranium deposits." Chavez himself declared: "Preliminary steps have been taken to establish a 'nuclear village' with the help of the Iranians."

Ahmadinejad and Chavez signed a memorandum of understanding in Caracas last November covering "270 agreements on cooperation in agriculture, industry, technology, energy, fishery and housing." An Iranian Ministry of Industries and Mines spokesman announced this month that "70 projects, mostly run by private sector companies, now are operating in Venezuela." The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Corporation reported Iranian corporations are tunneling and excavating in Venezuela - perhaps like their activities around nuclear sites in Iran. Venezuela could end up providing Iran with a steady supply of uranium. Indeed, Chavez taunted the U.S. during a televised Venezuelan cabinet meeting last October: "How's [our] progress on uranium for Iran, for its atom bomb?"

Recently, Tehran and Caracas have reached agreement to supply Iran with 20,000 barrels of gasoline per day - a move that could render ineffective U.S. attempts to embargo refined fuel imports by Iran. Joint efforts by both nations in banking and investment funds increasingly facilitate the Iranian government's efforts to run rings around the U.S. Treasury department's sanctions. Flight manifests between Tehran, Damascus and Caracas remain undisclosed as well, with reports that illicit materials, destructive equipment, and dangerous individuals are moving between those destinations. It is worthwhile to remember that an Iranian and Syrian militant client - Hezbollah - is believed by U.S. intelligence to have spread into Latin America.

Iran began establishing military ties to Morales' Bolivian government in 2007. Economic aid estimated at $1 billion has been pledged by Ahmadinejad's cash-strapped regime to Bolivia. The National Iranian Oil Company opened an office in Santa Cruz for "joint projects in oil, gas, petrochemicals, and minerals" according to a press release last November. In return, Bolivia has publically supported Iran's nuclear program and may have provided some uranium as well. Morales characterizes his relationship with Ahmadinejad as one of "leaders who love justice." Iran hopes Cuba will join Bolivia in tripartite cooperation with the Islamic Republic - and so sent a delegation to Havana in June 2009.

Like Venezuela and Bolivia, Brazil has rapidly expanded economic, technological and financial cooperation with Ahmadinejad's administration. Such cooperation gives the regime in Tehran much needed international validity even as its legitimacy at home slips away. It also further facilitates Iran's attempts to circumvent UN and U.S. economic sanctions. Moreover, like Bolivia and Venezuela, Brazil is a potential source of uranium for Iran and a possible future recipient of Iranian assistance in nuclear technology. Tehran even suggested Brazil as a site where it would swap nuclear fuel with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Under ordinary circumstances, cooperation and assistance between Third World countries would and should be welcomed. Those nations need to solve their socioeconomic problems without constant handouts from developed nations. Yet these are far from normal times.

Iran sees Latin American nations as partners in creating a new world order. Ahmadinejad recently told the visiting Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro: "We need to establish a new system and take measures based on that system.... Many countries will join the new system." That Iran and Venezuela view nuclear power as part of an attempt at global hegemony was reinforced in a joint press conference this month between Maduor and his Iranian counterpart Manuchehr Mottaki: "Our experiences prompt us to generate nuclear fuel independently and even broaden the scope of our activities to meet the demands of other countries."

Many of the allegedly private Iranian companies doing business in Latin America are controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) through investments in corporate stocks. The IRGC operates in mining, construction, oil, gas, communications, mass media and arms industries within Iran and in Iranian commercial and aid ventures abroad. Not surprisingly, an IRGC commander named Mohammad Ali Jafari vowed during the recent protests against the incumbent regime that "preserving the Islamic Republic is even more vital than performing daily prayers." Venezuela and Bolivia too share this situation in which militarization of the state is occurring through the armed forces taking major stakes in industry.

The 2009 Annual Threat Assessment presented by U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair may have been too modest in stating "Tehran has made some progress over the last few years in improving commercial ties and establishing embassies and cultural centers in Latin America, with an aim to reducing Iran's international isolation." Rather, the Iranian government is expanding the lines of conflict with the European Union, United Nations and especially the U.S. through a rearguard action in Latin America. Based on these developments, the administration in Washington needs to take far more seriously the distinct possibility that a regime that is brutally repressive to its own citizens is unlikely to sow anything other than turmoil in the Western Hemisphere.

Jamsheed K. Choksy is professor of Iranian and International studies and former director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Indiana University. He also is a member of the National Council on the Humanities at the U.S. National Endowment for the Humanities.

Carol E. B. Choksy is adjunct lecturer in strategic intelligence and information management at Indiana University. She also is CEO of IRAD Strategic Consulting, Inc.

The views expressed are their own.

There's the currency campaign, for starters. Thousands of rial notes have been stamped with a simple green "V" for victory. Others bear handwritten slogans that echo the public chants denouncing the regime. Some have even been reprinted with pictures: one is a cartoon of President Ahmadinejad with "people's enemy" written underneath. Another carries a picture from the mobile phone images of Neda Agha Soltan as she lay dying on the street from a sniper's bullet. Underneath is written "death to the dictator" -- a common public chant against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The currency campaign even denounces the regime's foreign policy. "Khamenei the non-believer is the servant of [Russian leader Vladimir] Putin," declares one slogan, written in green, on a 20,000-rial note. Another chastises: "They stole money and give it to [Venezuelan President Hugo] Chavez." Some messages simply appeal for others to join the campaign to write anti-regime messages on one billion banknotes. The Government reportedly tried to take the marked notes out of circulation, but found there were too many to replace.

READ THIS WHOLE ARTICLE

Iran has helped Hizbullah form an operational network for attacks on Western targets, officials said.

The officials said the Hizbullah priority was to strike Israeli and U.S. interests in Turkey.

"Hizbullah established an operational cell in Istanbul that included members of Iran's IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]," an official said.

Officials said Hizbullah organized a safe house and formed a front company in Istanbul. They said IRGC helped Hizbullah set up a tourist agency that would enable Iranian agents to easily enter Turkey.

In mid-2009, officials said, Turkey foiled a Hizbullah strike on an Israeli target. Officials said the attack, aided by IRGC, was meant to have taken place in Istanbul and avenge the killing of Hizbullah operational chief Imad Mughniyeh in 2008. Hibzullah has blamed Israel for Mughniyeh's death in Damascus, Syria.

Officials did not report any arrests of Hizbullah suspects. The government of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has sought to maintain close relations with neighboring Iran.

In November 2009, Turkey and the United States reviewed regional insurgency threats. FBI director Robert Mueller led a delegation which reviewed details obtained from suspected insurgents in Turkey.

"We believe Hizbullah still has a presence in Turkey, although we think the security agencies have driven many of the operatives out of the country," the official said. 

Can anyone say Incirlik? On the day after Israel attacks Natanz, Bushehr, Arak et al?

North Korea is assisting Iran in the development of cruise missiles, an intelligence source told the Sankei Shimbun December 8.

"Engineers from both countries are collaborating in dismantling and analyzing Kh-55 cruise missiles Iran obtained from Ukraine through a black market route in order to produce a similar missile," the newspaper reported.

A TU-160 launching a KH-55 cruise missile. AFP/Yoshikatsu Tsuno

"The Kh-55 is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and if Iran succeeds in producing the missile, it could not only threaten the entire Middle East but also, with the benefit of improvements in North Korea's missile capability, cast a shadow on Japan."

Kh-55s obtained by China from Ukraine covertly also were the basis for China's newest long-range cruise missile, the DH-10, which was unveiled by China during the October 1 military parade in Beijing.

According to the intelligence source, Iran obtained 12 Kh-55 missiles from Ukraine through a black market weapons sale in 2001.

The missiles did not have nuclear warheads.

The source said that Iran considered seeking assistance from China, but instead chose North Korea, based on past missile collaboration.

North Korea's Nodong missile, based on Scud technology, was the basis for Iran's Shihab-3 missile.

According to the report, from 2001 North Korean and Iranian engineers began analyzing the Kh-55's construction and performance with the aim of producing the missile in Iran.

But the engineers encountered technical problems in reverse engineering the missile because of the difficulty for both nations in obtaining parts and materials due to UN sanctions.

The report said Iran has not been able to produce its version of the Kh-55.

"Iran's possession of a Kh-55 missile that can carry a nuclear warhead will mean it can widen its threat to not only neighboring regions but also Europe and Asia," the source was quoted as saying.

Moskit
SS-N-22 Sunburn

Iran is proceeding with an aggressive nuclear weapons program, and a few dogged holdouts notwithstanding, much of the Obama administration has come to terms with that reality. Official Washington has resigned itself to pursuing a containment policy that some argue will limit Iran's ability to proliferate, terrorize and otherwise exploit being a nuclear power. But it is wrong to think a nuclear Iran can be contained.

The containment argument runs along Cold War lines: The price of breakout is too high; the regime cares only about power, not about using weapons; containment will be simple because the Arabs are so scared of Iran they'll do anything to help us; President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doesn't have his finger on the button. In fact, these arguments are either false or misleading.

The bottom line of this reasoning is that the Iranians are not much different than the Soviets.

The Shiite regime in Tehran is far more skilled than its Sunni counterparts in the world of nuclear aspirations and sponsoring terrorists. A careful student of history, the mullah govt. surely realizes that the international community has meted out little punishment to nuclear transgressors. Tehran probably sees itself more in the mold of India, a great power whose nuclear weapons are acknowledged and now accepted, than of North Korea, a lunocracy without serious global aspirations or influence. Those Iranian officials who advocate withdrawal from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty do so not because they see Iran becoming the Shiite hermit kingdom but because they think Persia no longer needs to be constrained by status-quo powers and their status-quo treaties.

Advocates of containment and deterrence suggest that Iran will be encircled by a "like-minded group" of nations bent on raising the costs of adventurism. This absurd notion rests on weak reeds in Europe and Arabs deeply hesitant to act. And who can blame the neighboring Arabs? Egged on by distant powers to cut Iranian access to banking and shipping, they suspect they will be hung out to dry by the next world leader eyeing a Nobel Peace Prize.

Contrast this administration 'hope' with the today's decision by Pakistan, our 'firm ally'.

Worse, the common notion of deterrence is ill-designed for the regime in Tehran. Perhaps it is unfair to suggest that today's Iranian leadership is fashioned from different cloth than the Soviets; after all, we are often reminded that the doctrine of mutually assured destruction worked with the Soviet Union for half a century. But even the most ardent hawks have serious doubts about U.S. resolve to "totally obliterate" Iran in the event of a nuclear attack on, say, Israel -- despite Hillary Clinton's threat, as a presidential candidate, to do just that. Rather, most see the usual hemming and hawing about "certainty," "provocations" and "escalation" as the far more likely rhetoric should such an event occur. And if we in Washington see it that way, why would the Iranians think differently?

Or the Israelis? They might think it better thus to make their pre-emptive attack on Iran, the mullahs and their nuclear weapons, one made with weapons which will ENSURE the result rather than one which leads to a regional war as a result of a some few air attacks on theoretically pin point targets which leave the Iranian nation and it's military capacity largely intact.

Many also scoff at the notion that a responsible Iranian leader would risk using or transferring nuclear weapons or technology. We are told that Ahmadinejad (who most acknowledge is crazy enough to use such a weapon) won't make the final decision. But the regime is remarkably opaque, and shifting power centers ensure that even capable intelligence agencies have low levels of certainty about decision-making in Iran's nuclear program. If our intelligence community's prognostications about Iran's reaction to the Obama engagement policy are any indication (apparently they predicted that Iran was desperate to talk), then it seems safe to conclude that no one knows whose finger will be on Iran's nuclear trigger.

It is possible that Iran will amass enough fissile material to make a bomb and then choose not to fashion a weapon or test. But that is not the history of states that have clandestine nuclear programs, particularly those with advanced delivery systems and warheads. It's also possible that once it possesses such a weapon, Iran will neither use it nor share the technology. But there are few things Iran has not been willing to share, and it is certain to be tempted to use its nuclear weapons as a shield from behind which it can engage in adventurism in Lebanon, Iraq and Israel.

Advocates of a containment policy suggest that in the absence of effective diplomacy or sanctions that deliver results, the stark U.S. options are acquiescence or military action. Privately, Obama administration officials confess that they believe Israeli action will preempt our policy debate, as Israel's tolerance for an Iranian nuke is significantly lower than our own. But subcontracting American national security to Israel is an appalling notion, and we cannot assume that an Israeli action would not provoke a wider regional conflict into which the United States would be drawn.

There are few good options available to roll back Iran's nuclear weapons program. Nonetheless, after a year of false starts and failed initiatives, the Obama administration should be pressed to find a new way forward. At the very least, we must hope the president's new policy will not find footing in the false notion that a nuclear Iran can be contained.

The writer is vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

ElBaredei's last word on Iran: 'We have . . . reached a dead end'

Outgoing IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei last week confirmed that Iran had violated its obligation to the U.N. nuclear watchdog by failing to notify the agency of its secret nuclear facility at Qom.

ElBaradei said told the board of governors that there was "no movement" on resolving the issue of Iran's nuclear program and thus we unable to conclude that the program is not for producing nuclear arms.

"We have effectively reached a dead end, unless Iran engages fully with us," he said.

Iran notified the agency in September that it was constructing a uranium enrichment facility in Qom that will contain 16 cascades of about 3,000 centrifuges. "The facility is at an advanced stage of construction and Iran plans to make it operational in 2011. Iran stated that construction of the plant was part of its efforts to protect sensitive nuclear activities against attack by using 'passive defense systems.'"

Iran failed to notify the agency of the existence of the facility until September 2009 instead of as soon as the decision was made to build it and the action is "inconsistent" with Tehran's safeguards agreement.

"Iran´s late declaration of the new facility reduces confidence in the absence of other nuclear facilities under construction in Iran which have not been declared to the Agency.

The declaration by ElBaradei will likely signal the end of the Obama administration's diplomatic initiative to engage Iran on its nuclear program. The next step is likely to be the imposition of economic sanctions against Iran.

The Office of Naval Intelligence is warning that Iran's naval forces could shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz where some 30 percent of all the world's oil and natural gas passes and severely disrupt international commerce and energy supplies.

The ONI report, released last week, stated that Iran's naval modernization includes the purchase of Chinese and Russian advanced weapons systems, including Kilo submarines and C-801 cruise missiles, among other weapons.

"Naval modernization is one of Iran's highest military priorities and the country continues to focus on weapons acquisition and development programs," the report states. The Iranians are expanding existing arms inventories and adding "increasingly sophisticated systems," the report said.

This Strait of Hormuz.    Xinhua/Reuters

"Weapons, such as the Hoot supercavitation high-speed missile torpedo, may be proliferated throughout the Iranian naval inventory as will longer range anti-ship missiles, such as the Ra'ad," the report said, noting that mining weapons also will be expanded.

The report states that Iran would lose money from shutting Hormuz, but that closure of the strait in a conflict could be carried out in extreme circumstances.

"Given the importance of the Strait, disrupting traffic flow or even threatening to do so may be an effective tool for Iran," the report said.

The world would face "serious economic impact from a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to greatly reduced supplies of crude oil, petroleum supplies and LNG," the report said.

Japan and China would be hit hard by such a closure along with the United States and Western Europe.

Iran's navy relies on both conventional and asymmetric warfare concepts and its weapons procurement has focused on purchasing large numbers of small and fast military boats, like its 10 Chinese-made Houdong fast attack craft, which are equipped with high-speed anti-ship missiles.

The Iranians also have purchased fast patrol boats from Italy's Fabio Buzzi Design, which are based on racing boat designs. Iran's navy has reversed engineered the boats and is now producing its own version.

China also sold Iran rocket-propelled and Russia sold three Kilo submarines in the 1990s.

"The primary missile in the Iranian mobile [coastal defense cruise missile] arsenal is the C801/802, first imported from China in 1995," the report said.

The C802s are Iran's most capable missiles and the report noted that with them "Iran can target any point within the Strait of Hormuz and much of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman."

Additionally, the Hizbullah terrorist group used a C802 to sink (WRONG- damage, article from 2006 no less) an Israeli naval vessel in 2006 and the ONI said "Iran could use the missile in the same way."

Iran also has "worked jointly with China to develop shorter-range missiles, including the C701, for deployment in narrow geographic environments," the report said.

Iran also has several midget submarines that can be used for covert operations.

Air defenses include Russians systems including the Tor-M1 and purchase of S-300s.

Iran is not going to build
10-12 new nuclear processing facilities, people ..
THEY ARE BUILT

Terror State: A dithering world has for years underestimated the costs of appeasement toward Iran. Tehran's aggressive plans for 10 new nuclear plants show they want dominance, not just a bomb or two.

To any informed observer, it's no surprise that Iran is now collecting its 10-to-1 winnings in the high-stakes game Tehran's Islamofascist government has been playing with the free world for years now.

WRONG ALL WRONG.

They are not going to BUILD 10 new nuke processing facilities.

They ARE built

They ARE operating

It's just that with the discovery of the Qum facility, and the now unarguable fact they are lying, taqiya laden genocidal sons of bitches, they are making sure they can say they TOLD US SO before the rest of these facilities are 'discovered'.

Why on earth do think their attitude, is and has been that the west can't do a damned thing?

The International Atomic Energy Agency probe of Iran's nuclear program is at a dead end because Tehran is not cooperating, the chief of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Thursday in an unusually blunt expression of frustration four days before he leaves office.

Mohamed ElBaradei also warned that international confidence in Iran's assertions of purely peaceful intent shrank after its belated revelation of a previously secret nuclear facility. And he criticized Tehran for not accepting an internationally endorsed plan meant to delay its achieving the ability to make nuclear weapons.

1. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, last night dismissed protests over last week's election as the work of "tension seekers" following a fourth day of protests in Tehran
2. Posts on Twitter seemed to suggest that there were still pockets of unrest. One user who has been posting messages about the situation in Tehran said there had been reports of street fighting in Azadi square and the surrounding streets with pepper gas being used by security forces. Earlier the poster said hundreds had been arrested during the day, and that as the night wore on Basij militamen were ­causing trouble.
3. As the night went on the user posted: "Our lives are in real danger now - we are the eyes - they need to stop us."
4. But numbers on the streets yesterday were far fewer than the 500,000 to 1 ­million who took part in a mass opposition protest in the capital on Monday
5. Ominously, the government ordered ­foreign journalists not ­permanently based in Iran to leave the country at once, and banned resident correspondents from reporting from the streets, a move seen as possibly heralding an intensification of the crackdown.
6. The regime appeared to be following a dual strategy of partial concessions on ­Friday's vote combined with arrests of opposition figures who could give ­coherence to the protests. Those detained yesterday included Muhammad Ali Abtahi and Saeed Hajarian, both Mousavi supporters.
7. In his remarks, Khamenei called for ­tolerance and said those disputing the result were ­tarnishing the ­"beautiful" image created by the record 85% turnout.
8. Mousavi had appealed to his supporters to stay off the streets and remain peaceful.

Mr. Netanyahu, in his first term as prime minister in the late 1990s, earned a reputation for conspicuous insincerity. It is therefore possible to interpret his fixation on Iran -- he told me in a recent conversation that it is ruled by a "messianic apocalyptic cult" -- as a way of avoiding the mare's nest of problems associated with the Middle East peace process, especially the escalating pressure from the Obama administration to curb Jewish settlement on the West Bank.

"Israel has to work toward a two-state solution," declared Vice-President Joe Biden today in a speech to the annual conference of a powerful pro-Israel lobby group in Washington.

"You're not going to like my saying this," he warned the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) before adding that the Jewish state should not build any more settlements on Palestinian territory, and should "dismantle existing outposts and allow Palestinians freedom of movement".

There are, in the West Bank and Gaza 3 Palestinian movements. One movement is led by the Holocaust Denier/Minimizer Abbas, who only in April again asserted that while the Palestinian Authority may sign agreements which recognize Israel, he has no right to enforce this on the people or other movements. The other two movements are Hizballah and HAMAS. So there's certainly nothing to discuss there. More the idea that a peace deal with this batch will HELP with Iran is too stupid to believe, 2 out of 3 ARE the IRGC. They are Iran.

It is clear that to Obama, Israel is Czechslovakia, and the West Bank and Gaza the Sudetenland.

Meanwhile in the capital of the nation we are 'engaging with our dialog', Syria, the president of Iran says ..

"The Zionist occupiers are destructive microbes, because Zionism itself is occupation, aggression, the use of assassination and annihilation," he told a joint news conference with President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian capital.

"Zionism was created to threaten us. To support the Palestinian resistance is a humanitarian and popular obligation," Ahmadinejad said in remarks in Farsi that were translated into Arabic.

"Syria and Iran are united in supporting the Palestinian resistance."

Syria also is claiming that H5N1 (swine) flu is an american product.Progress on all fronts, eh.

What are other leaders thinking of all this? What are they thinking in other intelligence agencies? What are they going to keep to themselves?

I guess then it should be no surprise that Israel reacts this way..

"Whether or not Israel got the green light from Washington to attack Iran is almost immaterial, as everybody in the region would believe that the U.S. was complicit," said Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

One U.S. diplomat envisaged Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak telephoning Pentagon chief Robert Gates, unannounced, "to give a heads-up and explain" once the mission were under way.

Since Biden was so idiotic and dhimmish that he wanted to pay jizya to the Mullahs after americans had been killed in 2001, is there ANYONE in Israel who would trust the VP of the US with a moment's advance knowledge of an attack?

With each statement and admonishment, with every lack of undertstanding of the nature of the Palestinian desires, this administration brings regional war closer. There may be nothing anyone can do to prevent this, but Obama and his remarkably stupid and dangerous ideas are being noted by those who DO understand, and wonder what else he lacks the ability to move correctly on.

GLOBALSECURITY.ORG:

Kurdistan's Zagros TV announced the raids by Iranian helicopters in the border region and quoted Kurdish officials as saying that it was the first time that combat helicopters have been used during months of sporadic border clashes. A Kurdish military spokesman said the helicopters did not violate Iraqi airspace but attacked by flying parallel to the border.

Border officials said Iran's military shelled the PJAK positions before the helicopters struck. Iran has targeted the PJAK with artillery in the past but never followed with air assaults.

Iran has long complained about cross-border activities of the PJAK (Free Life Party of Kurdistan) which normally operates further to the north.

Turkey bombed positions of the terrorist PKK (Kurdish Workers' Party), along its border with Iraqi Kurdistan, several times, this past week. Nine Turkish soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb blast, for which the PKK claimed responsibility, Wednesday.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Turkish President Abdullah Gul agreed to a joint demand that the PKK throw down its arms, during a recent visit by President Gul to Baghdad. The PKK rejected that demand.

26 people were also killed during fierce cross-border gunbattles between Iranian police and Kurdish separatists along the Iraqi-Iranian border, just a week ago. 18 of the dead were Iranian policemen.

Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group said that Iran has been trying to quash PJAK rebels along its border for quite some time:

"The Iranians have been taking action against PJAK, the Kurdish guerilla group from Iran that has worked in cooperation with the PKK, the Turkish-Kurdish group, for some time, and the latest attack is consistent with that, and whether the Iranians shell the PJAK positions or they carry out helicopter attacks in the area where the PJAK is operating doesn't make a huge difference," he said. "Now, some Kurds in Iraq are obviously going to be affected by this. The people living in the border area have suffered a long time from these attacks and it's a big problem for them, but they also are not capable of getting rid of PJAK and the Kurdish regional government is equally incapable of ejecting PJAK from this area," he added.

Western Iran has a large Kurdish population, and Iranian security forces have clashed repeatedly with PJAK separatists, operating out of northern Iraq, in recent years.

WIRED:
Iranian aircraft attacked three villages inside Iraq over the weekend. The airstrikes -- Iran's first on Iraqi soil since the U.S. invasion -- could complicate the Obama administration's efforts to normalize relations with Tehran.

"The bombardments appeared to have targeted the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish separatist group which has launched attacks on Iran from rear-supply bases in the mountains of northern Iraq," AFP reports. Iran has attacked the Kurdish group before, with artillery. But this is the first time the Iranians followed up, with assaults from the air.

"The incident comes a week after reports of a clash between Iranian police officers and suspected PJAK fighters in the country's western province of Kermanshah," Al-Jazeera reports. "At least 10 policemen and 10 fighters were killed in the gun battle."

Details on the airstrikes remain sketchy. Voice of America says the attacks were carried out by helicopters, which remained in Iranian airspace. Al-Arabiyah television, on the other hand, says it was "Iranian planes [that] raided those villages."

It is a serious development because the Iraqi airspace is under the control of the US Air Force and under US protection.  So the raids are either approved by the United States, as was the case when a US nod was previously given to the Turkish Army, or such operation was a surprise by the Iranians.  According to eyewitnesses, the planes were flying at very low altitudes, which may indicate that they were trying to escape detection by radars. So these planes were able to attack many locations.  Eyewitnesses and official Kurdish sources said that the raids were carried out by fighter jets and not helicopters.

In February, American fighter jets shot down an Iranian drone flying over Iraq. Such an incursion would've likely provoked an angry response from the previous administration. But the reaction to the drone incident was muted -- perhaps in the interest of keeping the dialogue with Tehran going.

Open hand, and unclenched fist, indeed.

GERTZ:

The Bedouins were said to have resided in central and eastern Sinai and allegedly were connected to the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip.

Another ..'they'll never work together' story.

Egyptian security sources said Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah ordered the establishment of sleeper cells in Egypt as Israel prepared to unilaterally withdraw from the Gaza Strip in 2005.

Looks as if even Sharon badly misjudged this entire mess.

The sources said the Hizbullah network contained more than 100 people, located in such cities as Alexandria, Cairo and El Arish.    AP/Ben Curtis

The sources said Hizbullah, directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, intended to use Cairo as well as the Sinai Peninsula to transfer funds, weapons, instructions and recruits to the Gaza Strip.

"Iran and Iran's followers want Egypt to become a maid of honor for the crowned Iranian queen when she enters the Middle East," Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abu Al Gheit said.

You mean they weren't just enforcing the law so that international chaos and war would be avoided?

The sources said details of the Hizbullah network have been provided by Sami Shihab, identified as a cell chief and captured in April 2009. Shihab, a Lebanese national whose real name is Mustafa Mohammed Yusef Mansour, was said to have told Egyptian interrogators that Hizbullah had prepared a series of attacks on Israeli and other foreign targets in Sinai.

Gee, any guesses who "other" means? Maybe Thais?

"Elements of the cell monitored tourist sites in [Sinai's] Taba, Sharm e-Sheikh, Dahab and Nueiba to conduct operations against Israeli tourists and visitors," Shihab was quoted as telling interrogators. "They monitored Israeli ships moving through the Suez Canal."

The sources said a Hizbullah commander, Mohammed Qublan, was assigned the mission to establish a network in Egypt in 2005. They said Qublan visited Cairo and transferred funds to Egyptian and Palestinian recruits.

The sources said many of the Bedouins were arms and drug smugglers with connections in Israel. They said the Bedouins were ordered to recruit their relatives in Israel to the Hizbullah cell to facilitate smuggling and mass-casualty attacks.

You mean it's not really about the 'occupation' ? I can hardly believe it !

The Hizbullah network in Egypt was used to facilitate the flow of fighters, weapons and ammunition from Africa to the Gaza Strip.

The sources said the network intensified activity in February 2008 in wake of the assassination of Hizbullah operational chief Imad Mughniyeh, a killing blamed on Israel.

In addition, the sources said, Hizbullah planned three at least attacks on Israeli targets.

Hizbullah was said to have planned at least three attacks against Egypt and Israel. One plot stipulated a huge suicide bombing in Tel Aviv meant to result in scores of casualties.

Another plot was to identify and attack an Israeli or U.S. ship in the Suez Canal.

A third target was Israeli vacationers in the southern Sinai.

"This is the tip of the iceberg," the source said. "We are sure that we will uncover additional plots as additional terrorists are captured."

I wonder how Egypt will question them? With Honeyed Chicken and Rice Pilaf and soft walls meant to make a loud noise if you hit it, while preventing whiplash?

"The [Hizbullah] supreme leadership ordered Hizbullah not to stage operations in Egypt, rather within Israel," Shihab was quoted as saying. "The operations have been already approved."

At first, Shihab said, Hizbullah planned to attack Israeli interests in Egypt. He said Hizbullah sent operatives on forged passports to collect intelligence on a range of Israeli targets.

Another Hizbullah operative, Nasser Abu Umra, was said to have confessed to acquiring and concealing suicide explosive belts. Abu Umra was also said to have purchased a house in the divided city of Rafah to store weapons.

"This serious case, which affects the national security of Egypt and its national sovereignty, calls for zero tolerance and the protection of the state within a legal framework," Egyptian Parliamentary Affairs Minister Mufid Shehab told parliament on April 14.

The sources said the Hizbullah network contained more than 100 people, located in such cities as Alexandria, Cairo and El Arish. They said the Sinai network contained at least 25 Hizbullah operatives, believed to have been provided haven by Bedouins in the central part of the peninsula.

"The Central Committee of Hizbullah approved this, and Hizbullah sent Lebanese and Palestinians to form the network," a security source said.

Bedouin smugglers have been clashing with Egyptian security forces throughout eastern Sinai. On April 13, an Egyptian border guard was shot and killed along the Israeli frontier. At the same time, another shootout was reported between Egyptian forces and Bedouins in central Sinai.

Officials said the Hizbullah network was preparing to intensify weapons smuggling to the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip. They said the network, alleged to have already assembled suicide explosive belts, planned to purchase a boat and bring weapons from Somalia, Sudan and Yemen to Egypt.

"They were observing and locating the tourists groups who repeatedly come to south Sinai resorts and residences paving the way to target them in hostile activities," Shehab, the Egyptian minister, said.

Former CIA officer Robert Baer said last week that he has held exchanges with Iranian military and paramilitary officials and that he has understood Tehran's deterrence doctrine as a result.

Baer, speaking at the National Defense University, said Iran does not trust the United Nations because it learned from the experience with Saddam Hussein that opening up the country to U.N. inspections will not stave off an invasion.

Additionally, Iran's deterrence doctrine calls for fighting its wars outside of the country. "You cannot defend fixed positions against the American military; therefore, do not try to defend with armor, with conventional forces inside your country. Fight your wars elsewhere. Fight them with asymmetrical warfare. Use proxies," Baer said.

If Iran is attacked by the United States or Israel, it will respond by attacking abroad, for example against U.S. troops in Iraq or Afghanistan, or against the U.S. Navy or oil facilities in Bahrain, closing the Strait of Hormuz, or through proxies in Gaza, the West Bank or Lebanon.

This is actually good news. If this is their operating theory, it means that they truly believe any operation Israel undertakes IS an American operation, and they will go to the maximum effort against us, everywhere. This, far from being some kind of ...whew.... Israel will be protected sigh of relief, is in fact a thankfulness that the USA will not be given a choice about ELIMINATING IRAN'S REGIME. It will be them or us in the Middle East.

Also, the Iranians are prepared to accept "maximum danger to Iran," Baer said, noting that this lesson was learned from Saddam after he survived the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

They think we will occupy Iran, exposing ourselves?

There?

Trash it. Give the Iranians a chance for something else.

Leave a sign.

"DON'T MAKE US COME BACK. YOU WILL LIKE IT LESS THAN THIS TIME"

The United States called Monday on Iran to end its "horrible rhetoric" after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's attacks on Israel but said it still wanted talks with Tehran to mend relations.

"We want to have a direct dialogue with Iran, but Iran needs to do a number of things to get back in the overall good graces of the international community," State Department spokesman Robert Wood told reporters.

"If Iran wants a different relationship with the international community, it has to stop this horrible rhetoric," he said.

REPORTED BEFORE as early as 2006
GERTZ:
TEL AVIV -- Iran was said to be preparing to deploy a Soviet-origin intermediate-range ballistic missile that could be equipped with a nuclear warhead.

Israeli intelligence sources said Iran is completing modifications of the BM-25 ballistic missile, supplied to Teheran in 2007. They said Russian scientists and engineers were preparing the BM-25 (R-27 / SSN-6) for operational use in 2009.

"The BM-25 would give Iran the capability to strike anywhere in the Middle East and Europe," an intelligence source said.

Iran acquired BM25 land-mobile missiles with launchers from North Korea and other sources. Now Russian scientists and engineers are said to be preparing the BM-25 for operational use.   jcpa.org

Over the last three years, Iran acquired several dozen BM-25s from North Korea and Ukraine. The intelligence sources said most of the Soviet-origin missiles, designed for ship launch, were deemed faulty or obsolete.

Meanwhile Israel has prepared its own missile option against Iran, a report said.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies said Israel was preparing an intermediate-range missile attack option against Teheran. In a report, CSIS said Israel was deploying the Jericho-3 missile, with a payload of 750 kilograms, to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

"If the Jericho-3 is fully developed and its accuracy is quite high then this scenario could look much more feasible than using combat aircraft," the report, titled "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities," said.

Authored by analyst Abdullah Toukan, the March 14 study said Israel's Jericho-3 contained a circle error of probability of several dozen meters. Toukan said the Jericho-3 could overcome the difficulties of an Israeli aircraft strike on Iran, located about 1,000 kilometers from the Jewish state.

"The most recent version of the [Jericho] missile seems to be a two-stage, solid-fuel propellant with a range of up to 900 miles [1,500 kilometers] with a 2,200 pound payload," the report said.

The 114-page study said any Israeli missile attack would spark an Iranian counter-strike. Toukan said Iran would use its Shihab-3B intermediate-range ballistic missiles against the Jewish state. The report said Iran was believed to have fewer than 100 such missiles.

The report said Israel was believed to have deployed Jericho-3 in late 2008 and might have stored the missile in Zeharya, near the city of Bet Shemesh. The missile was said to be designed to eventually reach a range of 6,500 kilometers.

"Israel has carried out the successful test launch of a long-range, ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead," the report said. "Israel has begun a program to extend the range of its existng Jericho-2 surface-to-surface missile. The Jericho-3 is planned to have a range of 4,800 kilometers to 6,500 kilometers which brings all of Iran and the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries within range."

Toukan envisioned that most Iranian missiles would be intercepted by Israel's Arrow-2 ballistic missile defense system. He said that most of the incoming Iranian missiles would fall in neighboring Jordan.

The report said an Israeli strike would require advanced U.S. air-to-ground weapons. Toukan cited the GBU-27 BLU-109 2000-pound class penetrating warhead and the GBU-28 BLU-113 5000-pound class penetrating warhead for any mission to destroy Iran's Natanz centrifuge facility as well as the Isfahan uranium conversion facility.

"We can conclude that a military strike by the Israeli Air Force against Iranian nuclear facilities is possible, however, it would be complex and high risk in the operational level and would lack any assurances of a high mission success rate," the report said.

Israeli intelligence assessed that the BM-25 upgrade was coordinated with Iran's nuclear weapons program.

"The Iranians have been using components and technology from BM-25 to improve existing systems, including the Shihab," the intelligence source said.

On March 25, Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin said Iran has reached the capability to enrich uranium for an atomic bomb.

Yadlin told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iran could enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb within several months. Weapons-grade enrichment requires a 90 percent level.

"They are enriching fissile material in a low percentage of 4.5," Yadlin said. "But whoever knows how to enrich [fissile material] 4.5 percent knows also how to enrich it 20 percent, 60 percent or 93 percent. With 4,000 centrifuges spinning, to change from 4.5 percent to 93 percent takes only a few months to a year."

OK this is all very nice, but again I will make the point that any such attack will bring about attacks by Iran on Israel, US forces, Hormuz, Abqaiq, gas prices above the $4/gallon levels we saw last year, and calumny upon the state of Israel and jews around the world unseen since ... the first crusade?

Given this, and the fact that these items are NOT a deterrent to Israeli action compared to becoming toast, why would Israel NOT seek to take out the leadership of Iran and look for another regime entirely ... remember even another inimical regime, which is both non apocalyptic, not dedicated to a quranically based killing of the jews, and not inclined to support HAMAS and HIzballoid genocidal freaks is all it would take to create a VAST improvement in the wowrld situation.

Israel won;t be looking for Jefferson and Madison over there.

The Manhattan district attorney's office has smashed a sinister plot to smuggle nuclear weapons materials to Iran through unwitting New York banks, the Daily News has learned.

Officials plan to unseal a 118-count indictment Tuesday accusing a Chinese national of setting up a handful of fake companies to hide that he was selling millions of dollars in potential nuclear materials to Tehran.

"This case will cut off a major source of supply to Iran and it shows how they are going ahead full steam to get a nuclear bomb. Long-range missiles they pretty much have already," a law enforcement source close to the case said.

"We think it is one of the largest suppliers of weapons of mass destruction to Iran."

READ IT ALL

WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE?

• The Westphalia order of states is dead, replaced by a modern system that includes states, semi-states, and irrational international players
• The free world must focus on defeating the countries, forces, and extremist entities "that are trying to violate it." The real problems are coming from "the direction of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq"
• "The fact that we say the word 'peace' twenty times a day will not bring peace any closer."

A former German government official, Hans Rühle, has disclosed classified information on the discovery of Syria's covert nuclear plant that was built with North Korean assistance before being destroyed in an Israel air strike.

Ruhle stated in a column that appeared in the Zurich newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung on March 19 that Iran helped finance the Syrian plant at al Kibar. He stated the CIA's role in the defection of Iranian defector Ali Reza Asghari in February 2007 was "a spectacular intelligence coup."

In addition to details of Iran's nuclear program, Asghari's "biggest surprise" was the disclosure that Iran was bankrolling the Syrian-North Korean nuclear program.

The disclosure embarrassed not only the Americans, which spend billions monitoring foreign nuclear developments, but the Israelis as well, who had thought that Syria's weapons of mass destruction programs were limited to chemical and biological weapons.

Ruhle said the late Syrian leader Hafez Assad decided to cooperate with Iran and North Korea on the nuclear project with the goal of developing nuclear weapons.

North Korean ship traffic to Syria began the first deliveries of equipment in 2002 but aroused no suspicions from U.S. or Israeli intelligence. It wasn't until the fall of 2006 that suspicions began to arise.

One reason for the intelligence failure was the fact that there was no electronic communications coming from the al Kabir construction site, Ruhle said.

Instead, the Syrians used couriers to communicate on the al Kibar project.

Ashgari's revelations took western intelligence by surprise and they launched a top secret operation to find out about the plant, he stated. The operation included a 12-man commando unit in two helicopters to obtain soil samples and photographs of the plant. The mission proved it was a North Korean design reactor.

That led to the Israeli F-15 bombing raid on Sept, 6, 2007 that took the Syrians by complete surprise.

The North Korean role in the reactor was kept secret for months to avoid upsetting the six-nation nuclear talks on North Korea, which had become a centerpiece of the Bush administration's Asian diplomacy. The talks ultimately failed.

Ruhle said Israel estimated the Syrian nuclear program cost Iran between $1 billion and $2 billion.

"The deterrent effect of the Israeli action in September 2007 will probably not last," he stated.

Iran "Is Known to the World as a Nation that Cannot Be Defeated"

"Thanks to the steadfastness of the Iranian nation, which stands behind the dear leader [Khamenei], this nation continues in its glorious path and is known to the world as a nation that cannot be defeated. Today, thanks to great achievements, the threat to Iran has been lifted, and no power in the world entertains the notion of taking action against the Iranian nation. Even if someone were to entertain this notion and want to undertake any act of aggression against the nation... he should know that the Iranian nation is ready, and any hand outstretched in order to attack will be cut off.

"The Iranian nation is one of civilization, culture, and values. It is peace-loving, and [its people are] people of reason and dialogue, justice and brotherhood. It desires that this atmosphere should exist throughout the world. They [the West] say that the world cannot be run through terror or militarism. We say the same thing; in fact, this is the deepest wish of the Iranian nation. However, the question here is: why are they making shows of force thousands of kilometers from their borders and attacking other nations? Stop your shows of force and aggression, and look to the world in peace and tranquility..."

Conflict resolution is still not high on list of Syria's strategic priorities

The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Iran and North Korea were the key contributors to Syria's nuclear weapons program. The men who run Syria Affiliation: Alawi sect of Shia

-- The Syrian regime has never been regarded as particularly helpful to Western interests in that it quietly but actively aided Al Qaida insurgents transiting its borders to and from Iraq and has continuously helped supply both Hizbullah and Hamas in their proxy wars against Irael.

And yet the leader Bashar Assad (and his attractive wife) dress in fashionable European designer attire and eschew the thuggish public behavior of other dictators in the region.

The quiet military/intelligence band of Alawi brothers he heads and that run the country carefully cater to the Sunni majority that makes country function to the degree that it does and holds down key posts in the middle levels of government.

But the same covert clique worked with North Korea to build a nuclear reactor apparently aimed at producing a Syria arsenal of weapons of mass destruction.

This inconvenient fact is downplayed by the newly-empowered U.S. State Department that chafed under President George W. Bush's inclination to favor the Pentagon (during his first term at least) in foreign policy debates.

Under President Barack Obama, the diplomatic corps and significant segments of the U.S. intelligence community under its sway, see engagement with Syria and Iran as the key to conflict resolution and peace in the Middle East.

Good luck with that.

As an advisory by Middle East Newsline warned:

In the latest assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Syria's alliance with Iran is described as unnatural and "may erode if Syria is accommodated significantly in any diplomatic agreement with Israel."

Somebody at DIA might want to know that the Syrian alliance with Iran is nearly 30 years old and survived three Arab wars. DIA might also want to know that President Assad's Alawi-dominated Syria, the minority that comprises 10 percent of the population, has never maintained normal relations with any of its neighbors -- Arab, Sunni, secular, Islamic or Jewish.

Jordan's King Abdullah II, right, welcomes Syrian President Bashar al-Assad upon his arrival at the Amman airport.  AFP/Khalil Mazraawi

Syrian opposition sources report Damascus has been hosting foreign delegations to plan the resumption of its nuclear program. They said the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad plans to construct a nuclear facility over the next year.

"A new delegation of Iranian and Ba'athist Iraqis supported by Iran has arrived to Damascus last week to energize the Syrian nuclear program," the Reform Party of Syria said on March 12. "The delegation is comprised mostly of nuclear scientists but their specialized expertise remains a mystery."

The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Iran and North Korea were the key contributors to Syria's nuclear weapons program. In September 2007, the Israel Air Force bombed a suspected plutonium production plant in northeastern Syria near the border with Iraq.

RPS did not provide details of the Iranian delegation to Syria. Sources in Damascus said the destroyed site at Al Kibar has been rebuilt as a missile facility.

The U.S. intelligence community has also determined that Syria is modernizing its military, including the fighter-jet fleet and missile arsenal.

The Defense Intelligence Agency has concluded that Syria was upgrading its missile, rocket, anti-tank, aircraft and air defense inventories. The Pentagon agency said Syria was receiving advanced Russian air defense systems to combat any Israeli air strike.

Before and after photos of a suspected plutonium production plant in northeastern Syria targeted by the Israeli air force in a strike carried out just after midnight on September 6, 2007.  Wikipedia

"Significant air defense related deliveries include at least two SA-22 self-propelled short-range gun and missile air defense systems from Russia in June 2008, out of a contract for several dozen," DIA director Michael Maples said. "Recent Syrian contracts with Russia for future delivery include new MiG-31 and MiG-29M/M2 fighter aircraft, and the SA-X-17 medium-range SAM system."

The SA-22 has been marketed by Moscow as the Pantsyr-S1 mobile air defense system. Pantsyr was developed with financing by the United Arab Emirates, a leading client of the system.

The MiG-31, a high-altitude interceptor meant to replace the MiG-25, has been deemed one of the most advanced fighter-jets in the Russian Air Force. The MiG-29M/M2 marks an upgrade of the legacy MiG-29, the staple of the Syrian Air Force. Damascus has not bought fighter aircraft in more than 20 years.

"Syria's ballistic missile inventory is designed to offset shortfalls in the country's conventional forces," Maples said. "It includes older Russian-built SS-21s as well as Scud B, Scud C, and Scud D missiles. Syria continues to flight test ballistic missiles which it views as a strategic deterrent against Israel."

In a briefing to the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 10, Maples said Syria was supplying anti-tank guided missiles to the Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah. He said Damascus has regarded Hizbullah as an "extension of its own defense capabilities against Israel in potential future conflicts."

DIA assessed that Syria contains a stockpile of chemical warfare agents, including nerve gas, which could delivered by aircraft or ballistic missiles. The agency said Damascus has advanced its biological weapons program and could fire missiles with a BW warhead.

"Based on the duration of Syria's longstanding biological warfare program, we judge some elements of the program may have advanced beyond the research and development stage and may be capable of limited agent production," DIA said in a report submitted to Congress.

"Syria is not known to have successfully weaponized biological agents in an effective delivery system, but it possesses a number of conventional and chemical weapon systems that could easily be modified for biological agent delivery."

Syria is also involved in supplying of the Hamas regime in Gaza, an operation that has become more difficult since its 2008 war with Israel.

A report by the Israeli intelligence community said that Iran, in wake of the Israel war, would face greater difficulty in restoring Hamas's military capabilities than in Teheran's rearmament of Hizbullah in 2006. The report by the state-financed Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center pointed out that Iran does not have direct access to the Gaza Strip as it does to Lebanon.

However, Hamas's military buildup in the Gaza Strip has been directed by Hamas headquarters in Damascus, Syria, headed by Khaled Mashal, the report said. The report said the buildup has focused on rockets and mortars and IEDs in an effort similar to that of Hizbullah in 2006. Hizbullah was said to have engaged in weapons smuggling for Hamas.

"In the Middle East, there are some countries which manufacture such rockets, including Iran and Syria," the report said. "In our assessment, Iran initiated the technological adaption to make it easier to dismantle the rockets for smuggling into the Gaza Strip for Hamas and the other terrorist organizations."

While new thinking seems to be in vogue these days in Washington policy circles, the priority in Teheran and Damascus remains what it has been: high tech weapons of mass destruction.

KUMBAYA FANS AND YAYO SMOKERS COMMENT HERE

F-22s needed to penetrate Iran defenses that included Russian S-300s WASHINGTON -- To penetrate Iranian air space and attack strategic facilities, is not as straightforward as it once was, a report said. The Washington Institute said the U.S. Air Force would require the F-22 fighter to enter Iranian air space without being detected by Teheran's network of Russian-origin air defense systems. The institute, in a report by Thomas Crimmins, said Iran's acquisition of the S-300 would enable the rapid detection of virtually any U.S. combat aircraft, including the F-15 and F-16. "There is little doubt that the F-22 can neutralize the S-300," the report, titled "Buying Time with Iran: The F-22 Fighter," said. F-22 Raptor at a 2007 air show in Belle Chasse, La. AP/Alex Brandon The report, released on March 13, said Iran's deployment of the S-300 would comprise a "game changing move that could affect Israel's calculus about whether, and when, to launch a preventive strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure." Crimmins quoted Gen. [Ret.] Richard Hawley, the former commander of U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command, as saying in August 2008 "for non-stealth aircraft, the SA-20 represents a virtual no-fly zone." Officials in Iran and Russia have reported negotiations for the S-300PMU-2, the most advanced variant of the S-300 and which contains missile defense capabilities. Iran was already said to have acquired components, including radars of the legacy S-300V, with an interception range of 150 kilometers. "Iran's acquisition of the S-300 would render Israel's current strike options dramatically more difficult, and could force Israel to considerably move forward any strike timetable," the report said. "Should diplomacy fail, the United States can mount a powerful strike, regardless of the state of Iran's air defenses; Israel, operating at extreme range with the F-15I and F-16I, cannot." The report urged the administration of President Barack Obama as deploying the F-22 in a forward position to dissuade Russia from transferring the S-300PMU-2 to Teheran. Crimmins said another option was to already export the F-22 to Israel to enable a future strike option. "The F-22 fighter, however, might represent a trump card that could dissuade Russia from transferring the new air defense systems or that could preserve Israeli options should Russia go through with the sale," the report said. For the last decade, Israel and other prospective foreign clients have been unable to purchase the F-22. The report said the F-22 ban, contained in an amendment by Rep. David Obey passed in 1998, could be repealed by Congress, which would help the prospect of an aircraft sale to Israel. "Military deployments and arms transfers have long been used by the United States to reassure nervous allies and to forestall undesirable actions. In keeping with this tradition, the United States should consider the forward deployment of the F-22 as a means of signaling its resolve on the Iranian nuclear issue," the report said. "Washington should also consider rescinding the Obey amendment restrictions on F-22 export to pave the way for its eventual transfer. This action could buy policymakers much-needed breathing room, allowing nuclear diplomacy with Iran time to run its course and, hopefully, to succeed." Report: Emerging Iran air defense could defend against U.S. F-15s LONDON -- The air defense network based on Russian systems that is being assembled by Iran could defend against a U.S. attack, accordin to a report by a leading defense researcher. The report, "Surviving the Modern Integrated Air Defence System," said Iran has employed IADS technology that could cause huge losses in any U.S. air campaign. "The reality of evolving IADS technology and its global proliferation is that most of the U.S. Air Force combat aircraft fleet, and all of the U.S. Navy combat aircraft fleet, will be largely impotent against an IADS constructed from the technology available today from Russian and, increasingly so, Chinese manufacturers," the report, authored by Dr. Carlo Kopp, said. "If flown against such an IADS, U.S. legacy fighters from the F-15 through to the current production F/A-18E/F would suffer prohibitive combat losses attempting to penetrate, suppress or destroy such an IADS." The report said Iran as well as it allies China and Venezuela were employed IADS technology. Kopp said only such U.S.-origin aircraft as the F-22A Raptor and the B-2A Spirit could penetrate and destroy such an air defense system. "The United States therefore has only one remaining strategic choice at this time," the report said. "That strategic choice is to manufacture a sufficient number of F-22A Raptors to provide a credible capability to conduct a substantial air campaign using only the B-2A and F-22A fleets." The Soviet Union developed IADS by using highly-mobile air defense systems to down an unacceptable number of combat aircraft in any U.S. air campaign. The concept was deployed in such wars as Vietnam, the 1973 Arab-Israel war and the 1999 war in Yugoslavia. "The Soviet reaction to the IADS debacle in Vietnam, and the not entirely convincing performance during the Yom Kippur conflict, and the subsequent Syrian debacle in 1982, was to develop a new generation of SAMs and radars, with more range, better jam resistance, and importantly much better mobility," the report said. "These weapons were the S-300P / SA-10A Grumble semi-mobile strategic air defence missile, with its semi-mobile 5N63 Flap Lid engagement radar, modelled on the US MPQ-53 Patriot radar, and the sibling Soviet Army high mobility weapon, the S-300V / SA-12A/B Giant/Gladiator." "The S-300PS/PM and S-300V both employed high power, and for that period, exceptionally long ranging phased array engagement radars, much more difficult to jam than the engagement radars in the SA-2, SA-3 and SA-6 deployed and used during the 1960s and 1970s, and much more difficult to target with anti-radiation missiles," the report said. "Importantly, the SA-10, SA-11 and SA-12 employed radio frequency datalinks, which allowed the battery command posts, engagement radars and missile launch vehicles considerable flexibility in how the battery was deployed geographically." Kopp said Iran would be able to develop the capability to intercept cruise missiles. Cruise missiles were expected to be a major element in any U.S. air campaign. Russia was expected to improve its IADS components. The report said this could include the use of wheeled transportation for air defense batteries and radars, a move that would vastly increase mobility and reduce the signature of electronic warfare equipment. "This makes sense insofar as wheeled vehicles are more affordable to buy and maintain, provide higher road speed than tracked equivalents, and produce a less challenging vibration environment for electronic equipment," the report said. "The Cold War imperative to provide organic air defence for tank armies operating off road has vanished, while the imperative of mobility has increased." The report said Iran was also developing capability to jam U.S. satellites as well as aerial refuelling capability. Kopp said Iran's new generation IADS radars and launchers could survive and even defeat U.S. stealth aircraft. "The expectation that the U.S. can get by with a small golden bullet fleet of stealth aircraft to carve holes in IADS to permit legacy aircraft to attack is no longer credible," the report said. "The difficulty in locating and killing the new generation of self propelled and highly survivable IADS radars and launchers presents the prospect of a replay of the 1999 OAF campaign, with highly lethal SAM systems waiting in ambush, and mostly evading SEAD/DEAD attacks." DIA: Iran investing heavily in Russian air defense systems WASHINGTON -- Iran continues to seek an advanced long-range air defense system from Russia, despite the diplomatic overtures from the Obama administration. The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Iran was moving toward procurement of the S-300, known in NATO as the SA-20. The community said Iran has been investing heavily in advanced air defense assets and began deployment of the Russian-origin TOR-M1 system, or SA-15. "Iran continues to invest heavily in advanced air defenses, reversing decades of neglect in this arena," the Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report. "Iran has deployed the advanced SA-15 tactical surface-to-air missile systems and continues to express interest in acquiring the long-range SA-20." The S-300, with an interception range of 150 kilometers, would be used by Iran to protect its nuclear facilities as well as the regime in Teheran, the report said. The report suggested that TOR-M1, delivered in 2008, has already assumed a similar role. TOR-M1 has an interception range of 12 kilometers. "Iran's procurement of modern SAMs with automated command, control and communications systems will improve its ability to protect senior leadership and key nuclear and industrial facilities," the report said. DIA director Michael Maples said Iran was combining its air defense modernization with an advanced ballistic missile program. Maples said Iran has been developing intercontinental ballistic missile capability through the successful launch of its Safir-2 space-launch vehicle in February 2009. "Beyond the steady growth in its missile and rocket inventories, Iran has boosted the lethality and effectiveness of existing systems with accuracy improvements and new sub-munition payloads," Maples said.

Gates, under Obama, raises the bar on criteria for U.S. action in Iran
A senior official asserted that President Barack Obama was unlikely to order the destruction of Iran's nuclear weapons facilities.

Instead, Obama was expected to first determine whether a nuclear Iran would constitute a direct threat to the United States.

"I think that the barrier first of all will be are we going to be attacked here at home," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said.In a television interview on March 12, Gates appeared to reverse years of U.S. warnings that it would consider all options, including military, to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program. Instead, Gates asserted that neither Obama nor his successor would rely on U.S. intelligence assessments on whether Iran has already reached the capability to produce atomic bombs.

"He is going to ask a lot of very hard questions," Gates said. "And I think that hurdle is much higher today than it was six or seven years ago."

U.S. intelligence breaks with Israel's on nuclear headway by Iran

The U.S. intelligence community has disputed an assessment by its Israeli counterpart and the Pentagon regarding Iran's nuclear program.

In an assessment that played down warnings by U.S. military chiefs, the American intelligence community determined that Iran has failed to produce highly-enriched uranium, required for the assembly of nuclear weapons. Two leading U.S. intelligence officials said Iran was not known to have begun refining low-enriched uranium into fuel that could be installed into a missile warhead.

Officials said the U.S. intelligence community and military dispute Iran's progress toward nuclear weapons. On March 1, Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Teheran has accumulated enough fissile material to produce a nuclear bomb.

Within hours, senior officials in the Obama administration, including Defense Secretary Robert Gates, disagreed with Mullen. Later, the admiral issued a clarification.

"There are differences among the [U.S.] intelligence communities," Blair said. "Our current estimate is that the minimum time at which Iran could technically produce the amount of highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon is 2010."