Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa promised last week that Syria's response would be forthcoming to avenge Damascus' humiliation by the alleged Israeli air incursion into its airspace. Dr Boaz Ganor, executive director of the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) in Herzliya, has commented on the various options, that President Bashar Assad has in store. Ganor: "The Syrians have a variety of possibilities to operate against Israel, from urging Hezbollah to heat up the northern border through one action or revert to high-trajectory fire directed at Israeli targets." In fact, the Israeli defense establishment does not rule out a Syrian attempt to respond sometime with missile fire and has already taken precautionary measures to meet this threat.

So are Israel and Syria edging closer to war? Tension between the two longtime enemies has increased substantially and the recent incident may well become the trigger for a full-scale conflict of some kind.

One thing is quite certain, Syria sees the next war with Israel involving missile attacks on civilian infrastructure, an anonymous senior official in the Damascus Ministry of Defense, warned recently.

Fully aware of Israel's military superiority, especially it air force, the Syrian military prefers to avoid a direct, classic warfare confrontation with the IDF, in which it may well fare even worse than in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Instead, the next war will involve Katyusha rockets and ballistic missiles that will target strategic points in Israel, and escalate dangerously into a full-scale city war.

According to Arab affairs expert Dr Guy Bechor, the Syrian assessment is a result of the Second Lebanon War. After that war, the Syrians understood that they do not need a large ground force to defeat Israel, but rather missiles aimed at dense Israeli population centers.

Indeed, for the past two years the Syrians have been engaged in massive acquisitions from Russia, after an $11 billion debt was partially forgiven by Russia in 2005, and mainly through a tab taken on by Iran's president Ahmadinejad.

One of the worst case scenarios facing the Israeli defense community, in its short-term assessment period is Syria's chemical weapons potential, combined with its medium-range missile arsenal.

The Syrian Chemical Warfare Potential

Syrian chemical weapons development has been largely spurred by its disastrous conventional military defeats by Israel in 1967, 1973, and 1982. Syrian President Hafez al-Assad was Minister of Defense during the 1967 Six-Day War, during which the Golan Heights were captured by Israeli forces. After seizing power and assuming the presidency in 1971, Assad sought to bolster Syria's strategic capabilities by pursuing the development of chemical weapons and ballistic missile delivery systems. After Syria's air force was routed by Israeli jet fighters in 1982, losing 86 planes in a single engagement over the Bekaa valley in Lebanon, Syria apparently decided that surface-to-surface missiles could counter Israel's air superiority. From a strategic perspective, long-range missiles such as the Scud could offer a means to deliver chemical weapons in response to Israel's nuclear threat.

Assad's family split over Syrian response to Israeli air operation
GERTZ - LONDON -- The regime of President Bashar Assad has been divided over a response to an Israeli air operation in northeastern Syria last week.

Western intelligence sources said the Syrian leadership has failed to agree on a response to the Israel Air Force operation in northern Syria on Sept. 6. The sources said Assad has opposed a military attack on Israel while his brother-in-law, Assaf Shawkat, was urging a firm response.

Firm response? Is the the one where they send in the Mig 29's and none come out? Or the one where they launch 20 Scuds and a 'city war' ensues, until the IDF finally invades? The pity is Syria has no oil id they start a war. Just more sand and more poor people, and more religious hate doctrine

"Shawkat has warned Bashar that the absence of a military response would encourage the Israelis to take bolder gambits," an intelligence source said on Sept. 11.

The Assad family: from left to right (back row): Maher, Bashar, Basil, Majid, and Bushra. Shawkat has been backed in his view by his wife and Assad's sister, Bushra, said to exercise a major influence in the ruling Assad family.

Shawkat has been joined by his wife and Assad's sister, Bushra, the sources said. Bushra was said to exercise a major influence in the ruling Assad family.

The sources said the Assad regime has been concerned over the rise of the Sunni opposition movement aligned with Al Qaida. They said a Syrian strike on Israel could neutralize the opposition and bolster the regime.

Earlier, Syria said two Israeli F-15I fighter-jets fired air-to-ground missiles toward a ground target near the Turkish border. Damascus did not identify the target, but denied reports that Israeli ground troops had operated in Syria.

"We are prepared to defend ourselves against any attack that Israel may plan, but our basic priority is a comprehensive peace," Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mualem said during a visit to Turkey.

Ahmadinejad to Speak on Campus

By John Davisson

SEPTEMBER 19, 2007

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of Iran, has accepted an invitation to speak at Columbia from School of International and Public Affairs interim dean John Coatsworth, according to a spokesman.

The event is scheduled to take place on Monday, September 24--the same day that Ahmadinejad is scheduled to address the UN General Assembly--as part of the World Leaders Forum and will be sponsored by SIPA.

"Necessarily, on occasion this will bring us into contact with beliefs many, most, or even all of us will find offensive and even odious," University President Lee Bollinger said in a statement. "We trust our community, including our students, to be fully capable of dealing with these occasions, through the powers of dialogue and reason."

"Opportunities to hear, challenge, and learn from controversial speakers of different views are central to the education and training of students for citizenship in a shrinking and still dangerous world. This is especially true for SIPA students, many of whose careers will require them to confront human rights and security issues throughout the globe," Coatsworth said in a statement.

I'm looking for a parallel analogy for the west with Iran, but you know, we just don't have one. The foreign minister of Iran sits with David Duke at a Holocaust Denial conference with banality, and what can I conjure up to compare with such a thing?

This is not a freedom of speech, or an academic freedom to inquire issue any more than it would be if we have David Duke there to examine why blacks are inferior and jews back them up, and in doing so control the world by proxy.

That has no cachet.

And let's be clear that THIS is what we are talking about.
This is Leonard Bernstein inviting the Black Panthers to the cocktail party on crack.
He will want the same thing from you at the end of the day as he does now.

Why not invite a chief theoretician for the salafi freaks? That WOULD make sense.

THEN invite Mesbah Yazdi or Jannatti to examine the effect on western civilization of a messianic religious superiority cult in charge of nuclear weapons and its strategic meanings?

Instead, invited by the ill advised, misinformed, cloistered morons we have the living combination of David Irving, David Duke and Hermann Goebbels, appointed by limited choice in elections, via those who accept the idea that if Armageddon occurs, the perfect being, the new mahdi will arrive in Qom via a well to lead us all to paradise on earth?

The only thing we can discover from Mahmoud Achmadinejad at this point are more reasons to ensure that the hojatieh led mullocracy must GO. Will those who count this man accepting an invitation as a bonus turn into the insistent version of Tim Russert when he speaks? Will they tolerate such a questioner?

Or will they have tasers ready?

Will a student be able to ask about this:

Ahmadinejad described the Holocaust as a "myth" that has been used to impose the state of Israel on the Arab world and called for Israel to be wiped off the map.

"Ahmadinejad's Holocaust comment opened a new window in international relations on this issue. Twenty years ago, it was not possible to talk about [the] Holocaust and any scientific study was subject to punishment. This taboo has been broken, thanks to Mr. Ahmadinejad's initiative," Georges Theil of France told conference delegates on Tuesday.

Theil was convicted in France for "contesting the truth of crimes against humanity" after he said the Nazis never used poison gas against Jews.

WILL A HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR BE PERMITTED TO ATTEND AND CROSS EXAMINE THE LEADER OF IRAN ABOUT HIS OR HER TATTOO?

Iran Draws Up Plans to Bomb Israel

TEHRAN,Iran (AP) - The deputy commander of Iran's air force said Wednesday that plans have been drawn up to bomb Israel if the Jewish state attacks Iran, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

The announcement comes amid rising tensions in the region with the United States calling for a new round of U.N. sanctions against Iran over its disputed nuclear program and Israeli planes having recently overflown, and perhaps even attacked, Iranian ally Syria's territory.

"We have drawn up a plan to strike back at Israel with our bombers if this regime (Israel) makes a silly mistake," deputy air force chief, Gen. Mohammad Alavi was quoted as telling Fars in an interview.

Su-24M Fencer Front Line Bomber, Russia

The Su-24M front line bomber is manufactured by the Sukhoi Design Bureau Joint Stock Company, based in Moscow, and the Novosibirsk Aircraft Production Association, Novosibirsk, Russia. The Su-24M entered service in 1983 and is a development of the Su-24, known by the NATO codename 'Fencer'. Over 900 Su-24s have been delivered, and the aircraft is in service with the Russian Air Force and Navy and the air forces of Azerbaijan, Algeria, Iran, Libya, Poland, Syria and the Ukraine.

The Su-24M front line bomber is designed to penetrate hostile territory and destroy ground and surface targets in any weather conditions, by day and night. Variants of the Su-24 have also been produced, designed for reconnaissance and electronic countermeasures.

Iran has at least 30 SU-24's

WEAPONS

The Su-24 is armed with the following types of air-to-surface missiles: Kh-23 or Kh-23M (NATO codename AS-7 Kerry) radio-command guided missiles (range 5km; up to four missiles carried); Kh-28 (AS-9 Kyle) and Kh-58 passive radar-homing missiles (range 90km; up to two missiles carried). Up to two Vympel R-60 (AA-8 Aphid) IR-homing air-to-air missiles with a range of 3km are also carried.

The Su-24M aircraft is armed with: Kh-25L (AS-10 Karen) laser-guided missiles (range 20km; up to four missiles carried); Kh-29LT (AS-14 Kedge) laser/TV-guided missiles (range 10km; up to three missiles carried); Kh-31P (AS-17 Krypton) passive radar-homing missiles (range 180km; up to two missiles carried); and Kh-59 (AS-13 Kingbolt) TV-command-guided missiles (range 90km; up to two missiles carried). It is also armed with KAB-50OKR TV-guided and KAB-1500L laser-guided air bombs, supplied by the Region State Research and Production Enterprise of Moscow.

Both aircraft can carry up to six rocket pods. The weight of conventional bomb armament amounts to between 7.5t and 8t.

The aircraft can carry up to three gun pods with 23mm Gsh-6-23 guns, which have a rate of fire of 9,000 rounds per minute and fire unit of 500 rounds. Gsh-6-23 guns are manufactured by the Instrument Design Bureau of Tula, Russia.

TARGETING

The Su-24 bomber's integrated navigation and aiming system is the PNS-24. PNS-24, in conjunction with radio navigation equipment, can perform the following functions: terrain warning; detection of targets and their destruction by level and toss bombing; target designation for missiles; detection of operating radars and launch of missiles on these radars; and automatic and semi-automatic aircraft control during landing approach to a height of 40m to 50m.

The Su-24M aircraft is equipped with the PNS-M modified integrated navigation and aiming system, which includes a laser/TV-sighting system for the air-to-surface laser/TV-guided missiles.

Proof of cooperation between Iran and Syria in the development and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction was brought to light Monday in a Jane's Magazine report that dozens of Iranian engineers and 15 Syrian officers were killed in a July 23 accident in Syria.

According to the report, cited by Channel 10, the joint Syrian-Iranian team was attempting to mount a chemical warhead on a scud missile when the explosion occurred, spreading lethal chemical agents, including sarin nerve gas and VX gas.

The factory was created specifically for the purposes of altering ballistic missiles to carry chemical payloads, the magazine report claimed.

Reports of the accident were circulated at the time, however, no details were released by the Syrian government, and there were no hints of an Iranian connection.

The report comes on the heels of criticism leveled by the Syrains at the United States, accusing it of spreading "false" claims of Syrian nuclear activity and cooperation with North Korea to excuse an alleged Israeli air incursion over the country this month.

According to Global Security.org, Syria is not a signatory of either the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), - an international agreement banning the production, stockpiling or use of chemical weapons, or the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Syria began developing chemical weapons in 1973, just before the Yom Kippur War. Global Security.org cites the country as having one of the most advanced chemical weapons programs in the Middle East.

In a speech about Iran's nuclear program, Ahmadinejad declared that Iran has become a global power, and that it would place its nuclear technology at the service of those determined to confront the U.S. and other Western countries. He announced that Iran was now successfully operating over 3,000 centrifuges, continued to downplay the impact of the U.N. Security Council sanctions on Iran, and reiterated Iran's official stance of refusal to freeze its nuclear activity. Ahmadinejad also harshly censured senior Iranian officials who had called for compromise with the West on Iran's nuclear program out of fear of a possible U.S. attack on Iran, hinting that they were traitors.

U.S. confirms Syria-N. Korea nuke link

WASHINGTON -- The United States has determined that Syria has been seeking nuclear weapons from North Korea.

"We do know that there are a number of foreign technicians that have been in Syria," Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Andrew Semmel said. "We do know that there may have been contact between Syria and some secret suppliers for nuclear equipment. Whether anything transpired remains to be seen."

One North Korean-flagged ship, Al Hamad, arrived in the Syrian port of Tartous on Sept. 3. Three days later, the Israel Air Force attacked an unspecified target in northeastern Syria along the Euphrates River near the border with Turkey.

Officials said North Korea has provided nuclear material and guidance to Syria. They said Pyongyang has helped establish underground facilities that could be used to produce weapons-grade uranium for the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

"There are indicators that they do have something going on there," Semmel, who did not rule out the involvement of the so-called nuclear smuggling network once led by Abdul Qadeer Khan, said on Sept. 13.

"There are North Korean people there," Semmel said. "There's no question about that. Just as there are a lot of North Koreans in Iraq and Iran."

Israel has not denied an air force operation in Syria. But officials have refused to provide any details.

Question to Palestinians ...

Would your opinion about Israel's right to exist change if there was a two-state solution whereby Palestine is on the land occupied in 1967?

West Bank    YES  35.7%  NO 64.3%

Gaza Strip      YES 36.6%    NO 63.4%

Any questions ?