Recently in Iran Category

Nothing to see here - Russian analyst: Iran's missile capacity has topped North Korea's

By epaminondas on October 16, 2009 9:12 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

MOSCOW -- A leading analyst here said Iran has surpassed the missile development potential of North Korea.
The analyst pointed to Iran's success in building a space-launch vehicle that could place satellites into orbit.
"In my view, Iran has even greater potential and greater resources than North Korea has today," Vladimir Dvorkin, a leading Russian analyst, said.
The analyst's assessment differed sharply with that of the Kremlin. The Russian General Staff was said to have concluded that Iranian missiles had a range of no more than 1,000 kilometers.

AFP graphic on Iran's short-range missiles. AFP/Graphic

In a briefing on Sept. 21, Dvorkin, the senior researcher at the Moscow-based International Security Center, said North Korea was helping Iran produce intermediate-range ballistic missiles. But he said Teheran has extended Pyongyang's technology capabilities and could produce missiles with a range of more than 3,000 kilometers.
"And if the upper stage of the carrier rocket that took the first Iranian satellite into space is re-equipped, the range could be increased to 4,000 kilometers," Dvorkin said.
"I believe statements by the Russian General Staff that Iran possesses missiles with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers are inaccurate," Dvorkin said.
Another former Russian general and analyst said Teheran could develop an intercontinental ballistic missile as early as 2015. Viktor Yesin, a former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, said Russian defense systems were capable of intercepting Iranian missiles.
"Russia and the United States could jointly turn to this topic again in the future if Iran gets such a weapon [ICBM], but this won't happen until at least 2015," Yesin said.

Any bets on that one?

And while Obama sends repetitive missives and missions to Damascus and Assad...

By epaminondas on March 30, 2009 6:13 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

GERTZ:

Conflict resolution is still not high on list of Syria's strategic priorities

The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Iran and North Korea were the key contributors to Syria's nuclear weapons program.

The men who run Syria

Affiliation: Alawi sect of Shia

-- The Syrian regime has never been regarded as particularly helpful to Western interests in that it quietly but actively aided Al Qaida insurgents transiting its borders to and from Iraq and has continuously helped supply both Hizbullah and Hamas in their proxy wars against Irael.
And yet the leader Bashar Assad (and his attractive wife) dress in fashionable European designer attire and eschew the thuggish public behavior of other dictators in the region.
The quiet military/intelligence band of Alawi brothers he heads and that run the country carefully cater to the Sunni majority that makes country function to the degree that it does and holds down key posts in the middle levels of government.
But the same covert clique worked with North Korea to build a nuclear reactor apparently aimed at producing a Syria arsenal of weapons of mass destruction.
This inconvenient fact is downplayed by the newly-empowered U.S. State Department that chafed under President George W. Bush's inclination to favor the Pentagon (during his first term at least) in foreign policy debates.
Under President Barack Obama, the diplomatic corps and significant segments of the U.S. intelligence community under its sway, see engagement with Syria and Iran as the key to conflict resolution and peace in the Middle East.
Good luck with that.
As an advisory by Middle East Newsline warned:

In the latest assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Syria's alliance with Iran is described as unnatural and "may erode if Syria is accommodated significantly in any diplomatic agreement with Israel."
Somebody at DIA might want to know that the Syrian alliance with Iran is nearly 30 years old and survived three Arab wars. DIA might also want to know that President Assad's Alawi-dominated Syria, the minority that comprises 10 percent of the population, has never maintained normal relations with any of its neighbors -- Arab, Sunni, secular, Islamic or Jewish.

Jordan's King Abdullah II, right, welcomes Syrian President Bashar al-Assad upon his arrival at the Amman airport. AFP/Khalil Mazraawi

Syrian opposition sources report Damascus has been hosting foreign delegations to plan the resumption of its nuclear program. They said the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad plans to construct a nuclear facility over the next year.
"A new delegation of Iranian and Ba'athist Iraqis supported by Iran has arrived to Damascus last week to energize the Syrian nuclear program," the Reform Party of Syria said on March 12. "The delegation is comprised mostly of nuclear scientists but their specialized expertise remains a mystery."
The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Iran and North Korea were the key contributors to Syria's nuclear weapons program. In September 2007, the Israel Air Force bombed a suspected plutonium production plant in northeastern Syria near the border with Iraq.
RPS did not provide details of the Iranian delegation to Syria. Sources in Damascus said the destroyed site at Al Kibar has been rebuilt as a missile facility.
The U.S. intelligence community has also determined that Syria is modernizing its military, including the fighter-jet fleet and missile arsenal.
The Defense Intelligence Agency has concluded that Syria was upgrading its missile, rocket, anti-tank, aircraft and air defense inventories. The Pentagon agency said Syria was receiving advanced Russian air defense systems to combat any Israeli air strike.

Before and after photos of a suspected plutonium production plant in northeastern Syria targeted by the Israeli air force in a strike carried out just after midnight on September 6, 2007. Wikipedia

"Significant air defense related deliveries include at least two SA-22 self-propelled short-range gun and missile air defense systems from Russia in June 2008, out of a contract for several dozen," DIA director Michael Maples said. "Recent Syrian contracts with Russia for future delivery include new MiG-31 and MiG-29M/M2 fighter aircraft, and the SA-X-17 medium-range SAM system."
The SA-22 has been marketed by Moscow as the Pantsyr-S1 mobile air defense system. Pantsyr was developed with financing by the United Arab Emirates, a leading client of the system.
The MiG-31, a high-altitude interceptor meant to replace the MiG-25, has been deemed one of the most advanced fighter-jets in the Russian Air Force. The MiG-29M/M2 marks an upgrade of the legacy MiG-29, the staple of the Syrian Air Force. Damascus has not bought fighter aircraft in more than 20 years.
"Syria's ballistic missile inventory is designed to offset shortfalls in the country's conventional forces," Maples said. "It includes older Russian-built SS-21s as well as Scud B, Scud C, and Scud D missiles. Syria continues to flight test ballistic missiles which it views as a strategic deterrent against Israel."
In a briefing to the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 10, Maples said Syria was supplying anti-tank guided missiles to the Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah. He said Damascus has regarded Hizbullah as an "extension of its own defense capabilities against Israel in potential future conflicts."
DIA assessed that Syria contains a stockpile of chemical warfare agents, including nerve gas, which could delivered by aircraft or ballistic missiles. The agency said Damascus has advanced its biological weapons program and could fire missiles with a BW warhead.
"Based on the duration of Syria's longstanding biological warfare program, we judge some elements of the program may have advanced beyond the research and development stage and may be capable of limited agent production," DIA said in a report submitted to Congress.
"Syria is not known to have successfully weaponized biological agents in an effective delivery system, but it possesses a number of conventional and chemical weapon systems that could easily be modified for biological agent delivery."
Syria is also involved in supplying of the Hamas regime in Gaza, an operation that has become more difficult since its 2008 war with Israel.
A report by the Israeli intelligence community said that Iran, in wake of the Israel war, would face greater difficulty in restoring Hamas's military capabilities than in Teheran's rearmament of Hizbullah in 2006. The report by the state-financed Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center pointed out that Iran does not have direct access to the Gaza Strip as it does to Lebanon.
However, Hamas's military buildup in the Gaza Strip has been directed by Hamas headquarters in Damascus, Syria, headed by Khaled Mashal, the report said. The report said the buildup has focused on rockets and mortars and IEDs in an effort similar to that of Hizbullah in 2006. Hizbullah was said to have engaged in weapons smuggling for Hamas.
"In the Middle East, there are some countries which manufacture such rockets, including Iran and Syria," the report said. "In our assessment, Iran initiated the technological adaption to make it easier to dismantle the rockets for smuggling into the Gaza Strip for Hamas and the other terrorist organizations."
While new thinking seems to be in vogue these days in Washington policy circles, the priority in Teheran and Damascus remains what it has been: high tech weapons of mass destruction.

KUMBAYA FANS AND YAYO SMOKERS COMMENT HERE

It's so hard to read the tea leaves, eh? Lebanon rejected by U.S. on arms deal, signs 5-year pact with Iran

By epaminondas on December 9, 2008 10:09 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran and Lebanon have agreed on military cooperation and are discussing weapons deals.
Officials said Beirut and Teheran were considering the sale of Iranian weapons to the Lebanese Army. They said Lebanon sought combat platforms and weapons that have been denied by the United States, the chief supplier to the army.
"Iran has agreed to supply weapons to Lebanon at a very low cost," an official said.
Officials said Lebanese President Michel Suleiman discussed Iranian military aid during his two-day visit to Teheran in late November. They said Suleiman has been rebuffed in efforts to acquire artillery, missiles and air defense systems from the United States.

Actually this is good news to me. Is there any distinction at this point between that which reaches the Lebanese army and Hizballah?

The London-based A-Sharq Al Awsat reported that Suleiman signed a five-year defense cooperation agreement during his visit to Iran. The Saudi-owned daily said Teheran pledged to supply a range of unidentified combat systems to the Lebanese Army.

Lemme guess, Iranian manned C-802 missiles, and thousands of KORNET anti tank missiles

Officials confirmed the newspaper report. But they stressed that Suleiman would focus on what they termed medium-size weapons, including artillery, rockets and air defense.
In the first stage, officials said, Iran would review Lebanese military requirements. They said the two countries would exchange visits by senior defense and military delegations in 2009 in an effort to forge relations and cooperation.
"Iran announced its willingness to supply Lebanon with defensive weapons, to be agreed upon in the framework of a strategic defense system formulated by Lebanon," a Lebanese source said.
Iran has established a military and intelligence presence in Lebanon, largely through its Hizbullah militia. Hizbullah, said to contain 42,000 missiles and rockets, has demanded that the Lebanese Army acquire offensive systems from Iran.
"Our army must be strong, and therefore must be well-trained and well-equipped, and not only with assault rifles and grenades," Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah said. "Our army must first acquire an air defense system and anti-tank weaponry."

Just imagine for a moment what Israeli strategic planning must look like.

If there is no regional nuclear war in the next 20 years it will be a gift.

Iranian dissident - Sanctions + Low crude prices = Mullah Instability

By epaminondas on December 9, 2008 9:58 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

A leading Iranian dissident in a recent speech argued that Western sanctions combined with low crude oil prices would destabilize the regime in Teheran.
Parviz Dastmalchi, an opposition figure who lives in Germany, said international sanctions have harmed Iran's economy. He said many factories have been forced to close, throwing young people out of work.
"Currently there is still money in Iran from the oil industry which allows them to outfit the regime of terror," Dastmalchi said. "As soon as the money runs out, instability will prevail."
Like most rogue state regimes, Iran's might more readily be toppled from within were it not in essence propped up by foreign powers providing incentives for bringing its leaders to the negotiating table. After such "talks" rogue state regimes can use their enhanced leverage and international prestige to repel all threats from within and without.
The perfect prototype for how to play the United States has been provided by one of the world's most impoverished and dysfunctional rogue states -- North Korea.
As analyst and UN correspondent John Metzler wrote recently,
The U.S. side may likely then opt for a quick diplomatic deal with Iran, much like the Geneva Agreements the Clinton Administration achieved with North Korea back in 1994. That flawed accord offered North Korea energy supplies and a civilian nuclear power reactor in exchange for limited inspections and transparency. Needless to say North Korea still covertly pursued its nuclear weapons program and tested an atomic bomb a few years ago.

But the worldwide economic crisis is impacting much more harshly in countries like Iran and China than in the United States and could disrupt the mullahs' diplomatic and nuclear strategy.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, left, and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in Tehran on Dec. 1. Ahmadinejad has for the first time admitted that the fall in world oil prices is hurting his government, local media reported. AFP/Atta Kenare

After mocking the West at the onset of the economic meltdown in late September, Ahmadinejad has in the interim been buffeted by an increasingly critical economic crisis of his own. Already, throughout the past year, he had been coming under sharp internal criticism for his economic policies. Last month, 60 economists wrote Ahmadinejad a letter blaming him for out of control inflation caused the huge stimulus oil money injection his government gave the economy.
Ahmadinejad had promised the stimulus would create jobs but instead, unemployment has increased by at least 10 percent.
The International Monetary Fund reported last summer that the Iran regime would face "unsustainable deficits" if the price of oil dropped below $75 a barrel. And Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has for the first time admitted that the fall in world oil prices will affect the economic projects of his government, his own media reported this week.
"If we fix the oil price at 30 dollars a barrel in the budget, we will have to abandon much of our economic projects ... We have to set it at 30 to 35 dollars as we don't determine the oil price on international markets," he said.
In his address at Israel's Haifa University, Iranian dissident Dastmalchi said the mullah regime in Teheran was certain to collapse.
Dastmalchi, in his first visit to Israel, said Iranians, in a demonstration of their distrust for the regime, have been seeking information from Western news outlets.
"All indications are that the Iranian regime is not stable," Dastmalchi said on Nov. 25. "The majority of the Iranian population is not interested in the regime of ayatollahs, and I believe the regime will eventually collapse."
Teheran has regarded Dastmalchi as an enemy. In 1992, he survived an Iranian assassination in Germany in which four of his colleagues were killed.
"Ninety-nine percent of the Iranian population do not have the right to vote and cannot work in key positions," Dastmalchi said. "Iranian law actually allows citizens of a certain social standing to murder another citizen of lower standing without having a trial in a court of law as long as the victim is considered an enemy."

Obama ..I will cut unproven missile defense....

By epaminondas on November 27, 2008 9:10 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Memo to the Office of the President-elect: Missile defense now 'urgent'
The director of the Pentagon's missile defense agency has some urgent advice for U.S. President-elect Barack Obama: Don't go wobbly on missile defense.
Air Force Lt. Gen. Trey Obering, who retires from his position in early 2009, said last week that

Iran is expected to field a missile capable of hitting the United States by 2015. He also warned of the need to answer the emerging China missile threat.
"That is why there is some urgency to this," Obering said, in pressing the need for building a U.S. missile defense interceptor site in Poland and Czech Republic.
Obering said abandoning plans for the site in the Obama administration would severely hamper defenses against Iranian missiles and also would undermine U.S. leadership in NATO, which has agreed that Iranian missiles pose a threat.

"We have been saying for a long time that the Iranian's have a very aggressive missile development program," Obering said. "They are continuing to develop missiles of longer ranges and of better and better technology."
Obering also said current U.S. missile defenses are not geared toward countering Chinese missiles, adding that he did not rule out the possibility of expanding the current system in the future.
"We're not fielding missile defense components today to counter a Chinese threat," Obering said. "We are certainly cognizant of what the Chinese are doing in their missile development program. And we're looking within our own missile defense development program as to what is possible there."
Obering said that while U.S. intelligence agencies do not know for certain when Iran will have the ICBM, "they believe that around the 2015 time frame is when they can have the capability to reach the United States." Currently, Iranian ShIhab missiles can range all of Europe, he said.

Lt. Gen. Henry "Trey" Obering addresses an audience at the dedication of the Ronald W. Reagan missile defense site at Vandenberg Air Force Base. Michelle J. Wong

Little has been said in public about Iran's long range missile program but the comments by Obering indicate that Iran is secretly working on building an ICBM.
Obering declined to comment directly on reports of Iran's missile test last week. However, he expressed concerns that Iranian test suggested a missile with a 2,000-kilometer range, multiple stages and solid fuel propellant. If confirmed, "that represents a major step up in their capability," he said. "They are doing exactly what they said they are doing and they are doing it in a very aggressive fashion."
U.S. officials believe Iran obtained small nuclear warhead technology that originated in China and was passed on by the Pakistan nuclear supplier group headed by A.Q. Khan. If combined in the future, the small nuclear warheads and long-range missiles would make Iran a global strategic nuclear power in the next 10 to 15 years.
Obering also recently told reporters that a recent Iranian missile test was one sign of Teheran-Pyongyang missile cooperation.
"I don't know that this particular flight [test] would be a validation in and of itself," Obering said of the Iranian missile test. "But I will tell you that we have many other parameters that we can see that collaboration between those two countries."
North Korea provided Iran its Nodong medium-range missile technology, which was adapted into Iran's Shihab-3 missiles, a mainstay of the Iranian missile forces that is based on Scud short-range missile know-how.
Officials suspect that Iran has also acquired technology from North Korea related to the intercontinental Taepodong-2, which North Korea unsuccessfully flight tested in July 2006.
Iranian officials have said Iran is developing both space-launchers and long-range missiles.
When asked about a draft State Department advisory panel report recommending the U.S. build missile defenses against China's growing force of nuclear missiles, the three-star general said he was not familiar with the report.
The draft report of the secretary of state's International Security Advisory Board, disclosed by The Washington Times in October, said that China's aggressive strategic nuclear buildup, including new long-range missiles and ballistic missile submarines, should be countered with expanded missile defenses, among other measures.
"To avoid the emerging creep toward a Chinese assured destruction [nuclear] capability, the United States will need to pursue new missile defense capabilities, including taking full advantage of space," the report said. "The United States must explore the potential that space provides for missile defenses across the spectrum of threats."
Disclosure of the report followed a recent $5-million congressional appropriation for the Pentagon to study space-based missile defenses, specifically a space-based interceptor program.
China routinely protests U.S. missile defenses in meetings with U.S. officials. China also is believed to be behind an international political influence program designed to curtail U.S. missile defenses, fearing that eventually the limited ground-based interceptor program now in place to counter North Korean and future Iranian missiles will be expanded to cover China's missile forces.

There is a reason why the USSR, Russia and China have been so totally opposed to the USA having any kind of missile defense. Their opposition, and it's degree should inform our leaders of something

If I were Al Qaeda or Hizballah, I might imagine this is the moment to strike

By epaminondas on November 6, 2008 7:21 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

The Military is very concerned:

Gertz:
Transition vulnerability

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Wednesday that the United States is vulnerable to attack or other incidents during the presidential transition period and that the military is ready to respond.

"When you go back and look at the number of incidents that have occurred three or four months before an inauguration to about 12 months out, back to the '50s, it's pretty staggering the number of major incidents which have occurred in this time frame," Adm. Michael Mullen said, noting that the danger is compounded by current world conditions.

The Sept. 11 attacks, for example, occurred eight months after President Bush took office, at a time when many key appointments had not been made.

All that is true.

However, after what probably appeared to the leaders of the Islamozoids of Khomeinist and Salafi varieties to be staggering to truly crippling losses from the Lehman Bros collapse to the last 2 days of thousand point losses on Wall Street, GM, Chrysler and Ford telling the admin and their unions (who have just won a great political victory) that they need $25B before Jan 20th, or there will be 50-100k unemployed, and another 750k workers who supply them, and Toyota whose hybrid vehicles lead the world, and build MANY HERE, posting 68% revenue drops, after 30-40% drops by Nissan and BMW......we have what might look like a teetering capitalist world which might be permanently set back, if say, Abqaiq was destroyed, or several tankers sunk in the Strait of Hormuz, or if attack on Wall Street, or Fleet St. could be carried out, or a dirty bomb say in Naples or Tokyo, or 'better yet', Osaka or Hiroshima.

These execrable miscreants might actually think they could free their brethren from the yoke of capitalism, and the corrupted leaders of their own nations.

They would be tragically wrong, but so were the Germans and Japanese who had much better intelligence.

What is similar are the cultural errors of the enemy about our responses in both the short and long term. If things get bad enough, I have no doubt that Mecca is on a list somewhere, even for a calculator like Mr. Obama. However, I wonder if they think that way.

But they may very well conclude that with one big push and a little luck we will be so concerned with our own situation, and desperation as a result of one or several devastating attacks that they can have their way in their own desert.

Perhapsa little Israeli attention to Natanz and Arak might refocus their attention.

There is nothing quite like the initiative.

US:Hizbullah military training better than Iran's

By epaminondas on November 2, 2008 8:40 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Gertz:

WASHINGTON -- A U.S. Army report, based on interviews of Iranian-sponsored Shi'ite fighters, said Hizbullah was believed to provide better training and instruction than Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
The report, based on more than 28 U.S. intelligence documents, asserted that Iraqi Shi'ites preferred Hizbullah training in Lebanon rather than that of IRGC in Iran.
"Based on the accounts of multiple Iraqi militants that claimed to have been trained by Lebanese Hizbullah, the training in Lebanon is considered to be superior to the training conducting in Iran," the report, "Iranian Strategy in Iraq: Politics and Other Means," said. "Part of this assessment appears to be based on the fact that the instructors and students share Arabic as their native language and have an Arab cultural affinity."
Iraqi Shi'ite fighters, particularly those from the so-called Special Groups, were said to receive training in anti-aircraft missiles, anti-armor missiles, mortars, sniper skills, intelligence and management. The report said Hizbullah provides a course of up to four weeks on anti-armor missiles a German sniper rifle and intelligence. Iran was said to offer as 12-day course in the Russian-origin SA-7 shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile.

That's not just insurgency training where I come from.

"Iraqi SG trainees do not like their Iranian trainers," the report, authored by Joseph Felter and Brian Fishman, said. "The Iranians do not show the SG trainees any respect and feel they are better than the SG trainees. The SG trainees like and respect the Lebanese Hizbullah trainers because the Lebanese trainers speak Arabic and treat the SG trainees with respect."
Shi'ite fighters captured over the last 18 months were quoted in the U.S. intelligence documents as describing training in Iran. The fighters said Hizbullah instructors, wearing uniforms different from those of the IRGC, briefed Special Groups operatives on ambush, stealth, discipline and demeanor.
At one point, the Hizbullah instructor showed a suicide bombing of the U.S. Marine Corps barracks in Beirut in 1981. Hizbullah trainers also taught Shi'ites on how to avoid enemy fire, saying this was used by Palestinian insurgents against Israel.
"This is one of the specific events that gave the [detainee] impression that the instruction they received was developed mostly by LH [Lebanese Hizbullah] not IRGC," an intelligence report said.
The report said Hizbullah was probably training Iranian-sponsored fighters in Iraq as well. Felter and Fishman said Iran has concluded that Hizbullah shields Iran from charges of interference in Iraq.
"Employing the Lebanese Hizbullah trainers provides additional insulation and ameliorates the cultural tension between nationalist Iraqi militants and their Iranian sponsors," the report said.

But Barack will talk them out of it - New Iran base to block Persian Gulf in case of war

By epaminondas on October 29, 2008 7:02 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

From Press TV, an Iranian New Service

Iran's Navy Commander says the new naval base in the strategic port of Jask will be used to block the Strait of Hormuz in case of war.

In a Tuesday interview, Chief Navy Commander Habibollah Sayyari said the presence of foreign forces near Iranian waters prompted the army to expand its strategic positions in the Sea of Oman.

"The newly-inaugurated naval base offers a new defensive front to the east of the Strait of Hormuz," said Rear Admiral Sayyari.

He stressed that the base would become an impenetrable barrier in the event of war, blocking the entry of enemy naval units into Persian Gulf waters. (More likely it would be rubble in minutes, but....)

Washington and Israel have threatened to strike the Islamic Republic, under the pretext of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

A US attack on the Syrian village of Sukkariyah on Monday, has raised speculation about the likelihood of a unilateral strike on the Islamic Republic.

Tehran has warned that in the event of war, it would not hesitate to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's sea-transited crude oil passes.

In a Sep. 11 report, the Washington Institute for the Near East Policy says that in the two decades since the Iran-Iraq War, the Islamic Republic has excelled in naval capabilities (download the report and decide for yourself) and is able to wage unique asymmetric warfare against larger naval forces.

According to the report, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) has been transformed into a highly motivated, well-equipped, and well-financed force and is effectively in control of the world's oil lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz.

The study says that if Washington takes military action against the Islamic Republic, the scale of Iran's response would likely be proportional to the scale of the damage inflicted on Iranian assets.

Hizballah's Mugniyah replaced >> IRANIAN - Mohammed Riza Zahdi

By epaminondas on October 25, 2008 8:31 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Hizbullah has new operations chief 8 months after assassination
LONDON -- Hizbullah has reportedly replaced its operations chief eight months after his assassination.
Western intelligence sources said Iran has approved the appointment of the successor to the late Hizbullah operations chief Imad Mughniyeh.
The sources identified the successor as
Mohammed Riza Zahdi
an Iranian national
who worked in the Iranian embassy in Lebanon.
"The Iranians groomed Zahdi and when he was ready told [Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan] Nasrallah that he would replace Mughniyeh," an intelligence source said.
The sources said Iran blocked Nasrallah's attempt to replace Mughniyeh after he was assassinated in Damascus in February 2008. They said Nasrallah, although consulted, had little input in the Iranian selection.
"Nasrallah has been reduced to political activities," the source said. "He has very little influence over military operations or appointments."

Hello, calling Barack Obama who was stating in May that HAMAS and HIZBALLAH had legitimate claims (sort of like telling Georgia to exercise restraint while we attempt to rationalize both EQUAL sides)...
Barack, bubby, you are telling the IRGC (who you WOULD NOT DECLARE A TERRORIST ORGANIZATION) that they have legitimate claims in Lebanon, bordering Israel.
Iran IS Hizballah.
The IRGC IS HIZBALLAH.
KHAMENEI AND AHMADINEJAD ARE HIZBALLAH.

How could this be made any more clear?

Mughniyeh was said to have overseen the training of Hizbullah forces, special operations, equipment and weapons deliveries as well as espionage. The sources said Zahdi would not have Mughniyeh's authority but would focus on the Hizbullah military buildup in southern Lebanon in coordination with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
The sources said Zahdi, also known as Hassan Mahdawi, was with Hizbullah from nearly its inception in 1982. They said Zahdi was recruited by IRGC in the late 1980s and was given Iranian citizenship.
Nasrallah maintained control over Hizbullah military operations until the 2006 war with Israel. During the war, Nasrallah fled to a bunker to escape Israeli air strikes and the war was conducted by IRGC officers.
After the war, the sources said, Nasrallah failed to regain control over the Hizbullah military command. They said Hizbullah commanders reported directly to IRGC although Nasrallah was briefed on major decisions.

Failure to recognize these threats, congressional weaknesses, hatred of the organs of our defense and intelligence by the party in power, and coming investigations for political revenge are going to make this the 1970's on crack. It took from 1980 until 1992 to correct that decade and we should have no doubt the damage now is going to be far worse.

Look it up, this is Rome 120 BC.The oscillations are going to increase until there is street violence, and then it's going to go downhill.

No Matter the election result, Iran has its own agenda, and Iraq is STILL ON IT

By epaminondas on October 24, 2008 12:35 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Gertz:

Iran pressing covert war in Iraq despite new softline U.S. strategy
The new commander of U.S. forces in Iraq warned last week that Iran is continuing to back insurgents and terrorists in Iraq, despite gains made in stabilizing the country by U.S., Iraqi and allied forces.
Army Gen. Ray Odierno said "Iran continues to meddle inside of Iraq."
Despite the evidence of continued Iranian support for terrorism in Iraq, the Bush administration has failed to take action against Iran for the lethal assistance, although the Pentagon claims its special operations forces have been working covertly against the Iranian aid networks.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has adopted softline policies toward Iran and favors a strategy of engagement with the regime in Tehran.

Gates is from the Jim Baker school of thought. Gates fits well with Gordon England, who is the force that backed Hesham Islam against Stephen Coughlin. What on earth happened to George Bush along the line to make him such a complete disaster? Gates and England together killed the F-22 at 183 planes to replace the ~750 F-15 C&D air superiority fighters which we WILL need to deter a China we pay lots of interest to on our national debt and a Russia we watch grow rich on dead dinosaurs, as WELL AS the slow movers and drones to combat Iranian infiltration.

U.S. Gen. Ray Odierno. AFP/File/Nicholas Kamm

"Clearly they have a tremendous information campaign going on against the strategic agreement between the United States and Iraq," Odierno told ABC News on Oct. 10. "They're openly criticizing it. So they want to influence the outcome of that."
The four-star general said the military is also continuing to see the influx of "lethal aid" from Iran. "We're still discovering Iranian-made weapons and munitions that are still inside of Iraq," he said. "Although it's a bit less, we're still discovering it."
Odierno also said the military in Iraq had detected a change in tactics by the Iranians operating inside Iraq. "We believe they are starting to train some of these special groups who have broken off from Jaish al-Mahdi once they've started to reconcile, and we believe they're forming ... organizations that they want to insert into Iraq for a long term potential to create instability."

Everyone get the game they are in ? It's not election to election here in the USA. They play a longer clock for high stakes.

Odierno said the Iranians are posing a threat to the stability of Iraq. "They, in my mind, are creating more instability in Iraq," he said.
Asked about the Iranian government role in the covert operations, Odierno said: "The Quds Force is the one that's running the operations here. People have differing opinions on what the relationship is with the government. But I would say the Quds Force is clearly involved in what's going on here in Iraq."
The general's comments followed a recent report by the Czech government that Iranian intelligence activities are increasing inside Iraq, as Tehran seeks to expand its influence and intelligence-gathering operations.
Iranian secret services are attempting to operate against coalition units in Afghanistan and Iraq, where Czech soldiers are also deployed, according to the 2007 annual report by the Czech military counter-intelligence (VZ) made public Sept. 29. The report said that "particularly in Iraq, a wide range of activities was registered, such as infiltration of persons active for the benefit of Iran in the Iraqi administration, the training of agents and insurgents, supplies of weapons, and penetration of Iranian agents to the coalition troop's bases."

Special Argentine AMIA Bombing Prosecutor Orders Confiscation of Bank Accounts of Hezbollah and Former Iranian Officials

By epaminondas on October 23, 2008 9:17 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

This travesty lives

10/23/2008 Alberto Nisman, ordered the confiscation of $1,000,000 (one million dollars) from bank accounts belonging to Hezbollah and to former Iranian officials, including former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Akbar Velayati.

Rafsanjani has been widely hailed in the west as a moderate, and practical man who can be talked with in order to advance relations.

The indictment is based on the civil claim initiated by one of the victims injured during the 1994 attack and whose identity remains confidential (see http://www.wiesenthal.com/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=fwLYKnN8LzH&b=4423615&ct=3352753). The indictment states in part that the bombing "had structural support from the Iranian State as well as from the Lebanese group Hizbullah for its organization, financing and operation."

"This new indictment by Prosecutor Nisman strengthens the fight for justice for the victims of the AMIA bombing. We call on the international community to support this legal effort on behalf of innocent victims of terror as well for the strengthening of mechanisms to prevent the financing of terrorism," said Dr. Shimon Samuels, Director for International Relations of the Simon Wiesenthal Center.

"Our Center applauds this measure, and stands in solidarity with someone who has bravely initiated a civil claim against the terrorists and the senior Iranian government officials involved in this heinous crime. We hope that the Prosecutor's indictment will encourage other victims to seek to use the legal system to strike a blow against the terrorists who shattered their lives. We also hope Argentina's indictment will serve as a model for all victims of terrorism," added Sergio Widder, Latin American Representative of the Center.

For further information please contact Sergio Widder at +54911 4425-1306

No doubt Barack believes there is some way to reason with these people in order for them to give up their millennial, religious racism. This is what the dialectic insists on, right?

Qatar sees Iran targeting huge North Field

By epaminondas on October 11, 2008 8:48 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Gertz:

ABU DHABI -- Qatar has been preparing for an Iranian strike.
Gulf security sources said Qatar has been contracting Western defense majors for solutions to protect the emirate's huge North Field. The North Field, located next to Iran, has been identified as a leading target in any war with Teheran.
"Qatar believes that Iran sees it as a major energy rival in the region, and should there be military tension, the emirate's gas facilities would be the first target," a Gulf source said.

I don't think we'll be able to protect everything , everywhere

In 2004, Iran warned Qatar regarding development of the North Field. Iran's deputy oil minister said Qatar was producing more than its share of gas, and that Teheran would not "allow" its energy resources to be used by others.

I don't think american imperialism, or zionism is responsible for that warning

North Field production train in Qatar.

Qatar's fear was said to have been shared by other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. GCC secretary-general Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah, a Qatari, has scheduled a visit to Teheran in late October or early November 2008 to discuss regional security.
The sources said Qatar has been examining the prospect of missile defense systems to protect against Iranian attack. They said Doha has been briefed on the U.S.-origin PAC-3 for protection of Qatar's energy fields.
At the same time, Doha has encouraged a dialogue with Iran on both energy and security cooperation. In September 2008, the two nations discussed defense and military cooperation during a visit by Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Najar to Doha.

What's it going to take to nullify this threat to EVERYTHING?

Hey Barack after you remember the name on the bracelet maybe the dwarf will meet you over this

By epaminondas on September 27, 2008 7:37 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran solves centrifuge issues, could have nuke capability by March
WASHINGTON -- Iran has significantly enhanced its gas centrifuge fleet, despite assertions to the contrary, according to a new report.

The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security stated that Teheran has resolved many of the technical flaws in its 4,000 centrifuges being used in Iran's uranium enrichment program. The institute, headed by former United Nations nuclear inspector David Albright, said Teheran was enriching uranium at a rate that would enable nuclear weapons capacity by March 2009.

Reminder....using 1944 technology it took the USA 10 months to refine enough U-235 for weapon deemed so reliable it didn't even need testing before it was dropped on Hiroshima (the test at Alamogordo in July 1945 was of a plutonium implosion device, not a U-235 device). That's June-July 2009 FOR A USABLE WEAPON if the starting line is September.

Is there time for diplomacy to work? Or is there just enough time for military plans? Or should we just act as Joe Biden advises...

Biden told Jerusalem officials three years ago that he firmly opposed an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and that Israel would likely have to come to terms with a nuclear Iran.

I wonder if the other dictatorships in the area feel the same way as Biden does about acquiescence to Iran?

"The centrifuges now appear to be running at approximately 85 percent of their stated target capacity, a significant increase over previous rates," the report said.

A map locating Iran's nuclear facilities. AFP

The report, released on Sept. 15, was based on information by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

In early 2008, the agency indicated that Iran was operating its centrifuge fleet at 50 percent capacity.
Titled "Centrifuge Operation Significantly Improving," the U.S. institute said Iran has now intensified uranium enrichment. The institute cited an IAEA finding that from May 7 to Aug. 30, 2008, Iran fed 3,630 kilograms of uranium hexafluoride into the cascades at the Natanz plant, "a significant increase over previous rates."
"Whatever the actual amount of LEU [low-enriched uranium], Iran is progressing toward this [nuclear weapons] capability and can be expected to reach it in six months to two years," the report said.
The institute's assessment appeared to differ with that of IAEA. On Sept. 15, an agency briefer told the board of governors that Iran was operating much of its centrifuge fleet at 20 percent capacity.
But Albright, along with report co-authors Jacqueline Shire and Paul Brannan, determined that Iran has overcome difficulties in operating its P-1 centrifuge cascades. The researchers said that until mid-2008 Iran lost a significant amount of uranium because of breakdowns in Pakistani-designed P-1 centrifuges.
"This latest [IAEA] report, however, shows that Iran has largely overcome these problems, which is reflected in the increased feed rates and LEU production," the institute said. "One official close to the agency stated that Iran may have reached a point where its cascades are operating in a stable manner, noting that fewer centrifuges are breaking."
The institute said Iran has assembled 18 cascades that comprise 3,000 P-1 centrifuges. At the same time, Iran was installing a second module of 3,000 centrifuges.
Iran has also been accelerating tests of its advanced IR-2 centrifuge. The institute said Iran has installed two or three models of what was termed "next-generation" centrifuges, including IR-2, IR-3 and "possibly a longer centrifuge."
"During this reporting [May to August 2008] period, Iran has significantly increased the feed rate into its IR-2 centrifuges," the report said. "This development appears to reflect Iran's goal of developing a more advanced centrifuge that can be deployed in the FEP [fuel enrichment plant] instead of its P1 centrifuges. It is unknown how long Iran intends to test these new designs or when they could be deployed in large numbers in the underground halls."

Duh, ya think they might be underground?

Anyone who thinks that we are not on course for a MAJOR, CATACLYSMIC regional mideast war, possible NUCLEAR is NAIVE

By epaminondas on September 22, 2008 10:59 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Chief inspector: Iran may be hiding secret nukes

VIENNA, Austria - The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warned Monday that Iran may be hiding secret nuclear activities, comments that appeared to reflect a high level of frustration with stonewalling of his investigators.
A senior Iranian envoy accused the United States of trying to use the IAEA as a tool in Washington's confrontation with Tehran. Iran, he said, has demonstrated full cooperation with the agency. Allegations of nuclear weapons work by Tehran is based on forged documents and the issue is closed, the envoy said.

The two men spoke at the start of a 35-nation board IAEA meeting. With time running out before Tehran develops potential nuclear weapons capacity, some worry that Israel or the U.S. might resort to military strikes if they believe all diplomatic options have been exhausted.

And with Tehran showing no signs of giving up uranium enrichment or heeding other international demands, the diplomatic window appears to be closing.

IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei said Iran's stonewalling of his agency was a "serious concern."

Military intelligence: Iran halfway to first nuclear bomb
Sep. 22, 2008
Herb Keinon , THE JERUSALEM POST

Iran is halfway to a nuclear bomb, and Hizbullah, Hamas and Syria are using this period of relative calm to significantly rearm, Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz, the Military Intelligence's head of research, told the cabinet Sunday during a particularly gloomy briefing on the threats facing the country.
Baidatz said there was a growing gap between Iran's progress on the nuclear front and the West's determination to stop it. "Iran is concentrating on uranium enrichment, and is making progress," he said, noting that they have improved the function of their 4,000 centrifuges.
According to Baidatz, the Iranian centrifuges have so far produced between one-third to one-half of the enriched material needed to build a bomb.
"The time when they will have crossed the nuclear point-of-no-return is fast approaching," he said, though he stopped short of giving a firm deadline. Last week in the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, however, he put the date at 2011.
Baidatz said that neither the efforts of the International Atomic Energy Agency nor the US and European attempts to get a fourth round of sanctions through the UN Security council were slowing down the Iranian nuclear march.
"The Iranians are pleased that the gap is widening," Baidatz said. "Their confidence is growing with the thought that the international community is not strong enough to stop them," he added.
Baidatz said the Iranians were playing for time, and that time was working in their favor since the longer the process dragged on, the wider the rifts appearing among the countries in the West become. "Iran is in control of the technology and is moving with determination toward a nuclear bomb," he said.
In addition to their nuclear efforts, the Iranians were also deepening their influence in the region through cooperation with Syria and the Palestinian terrorist organizations, as well as being the main arms supplier to Hizbullah and a source of constant attacks on American troops in Iraq. All of this, he said, was part of Iran's efforts to stand at the head of the region's extremist front.
The region's moderates, he said, were limiting their opposition to "just rhetoric."

Is there anyone who seriously believes the current Iranian govt, or ANY mullah dominated govt can by talking be dissuaded from the course they are embarked on?

Gertz : Major debate raging among Iran's leaders over war options

By epaminondas on September 21, 2008 7:16 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

LONDON -- Iran's top leadership is at odds over the feasibility of a major war in the Middle East between late 2008 and 2009.
Western intelligence sources said Iran has been preparing its military while debating the feasibility of an offensive against Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council states. The sources said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been clamoring for a war option should Israel and the United States continue preparations for a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

They want to attack Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Oman and Israel? Is there anyone who believes they can achieve victory over those nations? What is it they are really trying to achieve?

Military ships and helicopters of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards seen off the coast of Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. AFP/IRNA

"Ahmadinejad has been arguing that Iran has never enjoyed such favorable conditions for an attack," a senior intelligence source said. "

Anyone shocked?

The Iranian assessment is that the European Union is dependent on foreign energy, the Arabs have retreated into submission, Iraq could be annexed, Turkey is paralyzed and Israel is weak. The only threat is [U.S. President George] Bush."
Ahmadinejad was said to be opposed by a group led by former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani. The sources said Rafsanjani has warned that Iran must consider a suspension of its uranium enrichment program to prevent a massive Israeli and U.S. air strike.
"Rafsanjani has not argued for surrender," another intelligence source said. "His argument is that Iran should conduct a tactical withdrawal until the United States pulls out from Iraq. Then, Iran could resume its nuclear weapons program and threaten the region."

I believe this. One guy wants to attack and the moderate wants to wait until we are gone. I think this is a perfect frame for the real spectrum of what this government wants.

The sources said the Iranian leadership could resolve the debate in late 2008. They said Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been monitoring the nation's combat readiness, tested in a series of massive military exercises.
"Over the next few weeks, the Iranian leadership could reach a determination whether Teheran would be ready for a total war," the source said.

IAEA:Iran tried to refit its main long-distance missile to carry a nuclear payload

By epaminondas on September 17, 2008 1:29 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

'Iran worked on long-range nuke missile'
Sep. 16, 2008
Associated Press
The UN nuclear monitoring agency on Tuesday shared intelligence purporting to show that Iran tried to refit its main long-distance missile to carry a nuclear payload, according to diplomats who attended the meeting.
Responding to the presentation to the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, a senior US envoy said the information was compelling evidence of such work by the Islamic Republic. But his Iranian counterpart said the material shown was fabricated.

Of course, because the UN is a hotbed of Zionist intrigue as Durban demonstrated

Other diplomats, who demanded anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on the closed meeting's details, described the information presented as something in-between the American and Iranian standpoints.

Uh, excuse me but it wasn't an American presentation, it was the IAEA, that group of aggressive go getters.

The briefing focused on an IAEA report circulated to the board members Monday that said Teheran stonewalled agency efforts to follow up on the alleged weapons program. The report also confirmed that Tehran was expanding its uranium enrichment activities - which can make either nuclear fuel or warhead payloads - despite three sets of UN Security Council sanctions.
Part of the report spoke of what appeared to be drawings and calculations by Iranian engineers on reconfiguring its Shahab-3 missile to be able to carry a nuclear payload, and the presentation Tuesday went into greater detail on that issue, the diplomats said.
Iranian officials say the new missile has a range of 1,250 miles - more than 2,000 kilometers - which would enable a strike on Israel and most of the Middle East.
The presentation "showed board members for the first time photographs and documents of work undertaken in Iran on the redesigning of the Shahab-3 missile to carry what would appear to be a nuclear weapon," said Gregory L. Schulte, the chief US representative to the IAEA. He said the senior IAEA official doing the briefing "told us that information they have is very credible."
But Schulte's Iranian counterpart said the meeting was told that the material shown could not verified.
"We have given clear information ... (on) why this material is fabricated," Ali Ashgar Soltanieh told reporters. He called for "an end to this endless process" of probing Iran for evidence of an arms program he said never existed, saying his country considered the investigation closed.
A diplomat from a third country inside the meeting told The Associated Press that board members were told "the information is credible but cannot be verified."
Another said that while the information was compelling, most of it was known and what was new in the presentation "appeared to be only a few new photos and diagrams."
In Washington, the State Department said it would host a meeting of top negotiators from the five UN Security Council countries and Germany on Friday to discuss how to proceed in wake of Monday's IAEA report, which was also sent to the council. Officials said the meeting would be held to prepare for a gathering of the six foreign ministers expected next week on the sidelines of the annual UN General Assembly session in New York.
The US and its Western allies would like to see Iran hit with new UN sanctions for its nuclear defiance, but Moscow and Beijing have traditionally been opposed to harsh Security Council action. China said Tuesday that imposing further penalties will not resolve the nuclear impasse.

What a complete waste of time, and totally bad theatre. Think these guys could manage to put a few of these on a beat up freighter 3-400 miles off DC?

We hate you, we need you, we hate you, we need you, we hate you, we need you

By epaminondas on September 16, 2008 7:02 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Gertz:

U.S. assistance sought to keep Gulf open in any war with Iran
ABU DHABI -- The Gulf Cooperation Council are making plans based on the shared estimate that Iran would block both regional naval and air traffic during any war with the United States.

Officials and analysts said the six Persian Gulf states have begun to exchange scenarios of a war between Iran and the United States. They said the GCC governments have concluded that air and naval traffic would be disrupted for weeks, particularly in such states as Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.

Note that the islands in the throat of the Strait of Hormuz are Iranian, and tanker traffic lanes are in Iranian waters. Note also that Iran's asymmetric warfare doctrine of the IRGC call for speedboats to deliver very difficult to detect bottom moored mines in waters 120 feet deepp or less, in this area.

Bahrain has increased coordination and cooperation with the U.S. military. On Aug. 11, Bahrain's Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa toured the U.S. Fifth Fleet and discussed the U.S. and Western role in protecting the Gulf.
"The United States has a vital role in bolstering security and stability in the region," Salman said.
Several GCC states, particularly Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, have been holding exercises to prepare for an Iranian war. Officials said the GCC, unlike its surprise during the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, has sought to prepare for what could be a regional crisis.
"The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is something that is going to happen and will happen many times," Kuwaiti analyst Hajaj Bu Khathor said. "It might happen very soon with this issue, but either way, it will repeat again in the future."

Is there anyone else's navy with the ability to prevent or reverse this?

Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz during a Gulf war. GCC states have expressed concern that such a move would block crude oil shipments.
"The issue with Iran is not about uranium enrichment; it wants to control the region," Bu Khathor said. "We do not want to repeat what happened before. It is important to address this calmly and discuss this in a professional way. We need a strategy, alternative strategies and solutions."
Kuwait has been the most active of GCC states in preparations for an Iranian attack. The GCC sheikdom has been upgrading its U.S.-origin Patriot missile defense system as well as stockpiling such critical supplies as water, food and medicine.
At the same time, GCC states have sought alternative air routes that would avoid Iranian air defense systems. Officials said the effort would involve the establishment of a regional supply center, perhaps in Saudi Arabia, to transport provisions by truck.
The most difficult challenge for GCC states would be to maintain oil exports during any war with Iran. GCC countries have discussed alternative pipelines as well as sea routes far from Iran.
"This would require oil tankers equipped to travel in shallow water," Bu Khathor said.

Iran's IRGC recruiting Saudi agents throughout Gulf region
ABU DHABI -- Saudi Arabia is closely monitoring what officials charge are Iranian efforts to recruit both Sunnis and Shi'ites to spy for Teheran.
Officials said Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was recruiting Saudis both in the Arab kingdom as well as in other regional countries. They cited Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

KSA'a Eastern Province (where the oil is), is Shia.Repressed, ardent Shia.

"Saudis have greater access than others to Sunni countries," an official said. "Iran wants to take advantage of this."
Iraq has reported the arrest of a Saudi national who confessed to working for Iranian intelligence. The detainee was identified as Hussein Ulaiwi Al Arjani, a 20-year-old resident of the northern Saudi town of Najid.
"Authorities will contact the brothers in Iraq to verify the identity of that person," Saudi Interior Ministry spokesman Lt. Gen. Mansour Al Turki said.
Al Arjani was captured as he sought to illegally cross into Iran at Iraq's Mahran. Al Arjani was said to have been carrying a forged Iraqi passport.
"This man is unknown to us," Al Turki said.
But other officials said Riyad has been monitoring Iranian recruitment of Saudi nationals throughout the Middle East. They said IRGC was believed to be recruiting Saudi Shi'ites in the kingdom's Eastern Province.
"We believe a key goal of Iran is to identify targets in the kingdom and other GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states in case of a war with the United States," the official said.
A leading Saudi analyst, Abdul Rahman Al Rashed, said Iran has decided to increase tension with GCC states. Al Rashed, who directs the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya satellite television, said Iran has assessed that it could confront GCC states without sparking U.S. intervention.

I personally believe that would absolutely trigger intervention. INSTANTLY. Especially with this week's financial trauma making the wntire world economy jittery as oil drops by almost 40%.

"Iran holds the view that the United States is not expected to enter a war if small military clashes take place in the Gulf waters without developing into a conflict beyond the region," Al Rashed said. "The GCC is convinced that Iran targets it militarily, politically and security-wise."

BIG MISTAKE.
Civilizational, cultural historic error, Hassan, ole boy

Iran will support Hamas until collapse of Israel ... say, isn't that Shia AND Sunni?

By epaminondas on September 13, 2008 7:05 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

I have been told authoritatively that this is impossible
Perhaps those authorities might wish to reassess, and consider the strategic meaning of the shia of Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood sunni salafists of HAMAS working together with little apparent problem? NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH !

HAARETZ:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed Friday to keep supporting the Palestinian militant group Hamas until the "collapse of Israel."

Well, I mean since Israel is on an islamic waqf, land consecrated for muslim occupation until doomsday, I guess, ole dinner jacket really has no choice, does he? But I am sure FATAH has no such ideas, right Condi?

The Iranian news agency Khabar quoted Ahmadinejad as telling Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh that Iran views the support of the Palestinian people as part of its religious and national duty and that Iran will stand behind the Palestinian nation "until the big victory feast which is the collapse of the Zionist regime."

Say how are those P-2 centrifuges coming along. You wouldn't be thinking about sliding a crude fission contraption to HAMAS or anything, would you? I mean, you wouldn't USE them like that, would you?

Ahem....Republican Vice Presidential Nominee Sarah Palin on Thursday said the United States shouldn't "second guess" steps taken by Israel to secure itself, not only that, SHE DIDN'T BLINK !! OMG!! The horror ! Even worse, she expects the USA to live up to NATO obligations ! OMG !!

In a phone conversation between the two leaders (HAMAS AND IRAN), the Iranian president said that the continued Hamas resistance against Israel and the group's achievements would always be "a source of pride for all Muslims."

Achievements? You mean like this?

Yes, this is a cultural achievement worth pride, the purposeful murder of old people praying as a strategic and tactical goal of a "state's" effort. Yes, these old jews are worth knocking out a squadron of F-15's, right? Of course we have to remember that the past PM, Rafsanjani and many of his contemporaties remain wanted for murder in Argentina.

Iran does not acknowledge the sovereignty of Israel and vowed to support Hamas until what Ahmadinejad calls "deliverance from Zionists (Israel)."

Haniyeh, the leader of the Islamist Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, was elected Palestinian prime minister in 2006, but was dismissed in June 2007 by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, after Hamas violently seized control over the Gaza Strip from Abbas' Palestinian Authority.

Taken from a commenter at American Thinker:

A Jewish person voting for Obama is like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders.

Iran begins planting mines in the Gulf

By epaminondas on September 1, 2008 7:50 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Gertz:

ABU DHABI -- Iran has upgraded preparations for war which have included threats of retaliation against the world's oil supply.
Gulf Arab officials said Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has been planting mines in the Gulf. The officials said most of the mines were placed in Iran's territorial waters.
"This is a clear message by Iran that it is preparing for war," a Kuwaiti defense official said.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, right, watches military exercises with Army chief Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, left, in the Golan Heights on Aug. 12. The United States is at present opposed to any Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, Barak said on Aug. 27. AFP/IDM

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Teheran has also warned that it would target Gulf Cooperation Council states in any retaliation for a U.S. attack.
Officials said the U.S. Navy and its Western allies plan to deploy at least one additional strike carrier group in the Gulf. They said the carrier group was expected to arrive in the Gulf by mid-September.
Officials said the U.S. Navy has been monitoring Iranian mining of the Gulf. So far, they said, the mining has not significantly hampered U.S. or other naval vessels.
In late 2007 and early 2008, IRGC confronted U.S. Navy vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, passage for more than 30 percent of global oil shipments. The United States has not reported such a confrontation since April 2008.
"Merely talking about such a closure [of the Strait of Hormuz] creates a state of tension and will raise the insurance costs on vessels passing through," Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Mohammed Al Salem Al Sabah said. "We are now paying additional shipping costs because of an [Iranian] statement, which may be a trial balloon or a war of words."
Over the last two years, Iran has increased exercises and maneuvers in the Gulf. In July 2008, IRGC was said to have arrested a Kuwaiti national during an Iranian naval exercise. Iran has since denied holding the Kuwaiti.

It's a national mission they are on, and nothing except force will end it

By epaminondas on September 1, 2008 7:40 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Politics is the result of what happens on the battlefield

GERTZ:
Iran still arming Mahdi Army in Iraq
A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Iran continued to supply weapons to Shi'ite militias in Iraq. The report, authored by former Defense Department official Anthony Cordesman, said Iran has focused its support on the Mahdi Army, led by Shi'ite cleric Muqtada Sadr.
"Iranian involvement remains a key issue, and one with many uncertainties," the report, titled "Sadr and the Mahdi Army: Evolution, Capabilities and a New Direction," said. "Iran seems to be trying to find a careful balance between retaining influence over Sadr and the JAM [Mahdi Army] and working with the Iraqi government and other Shi'ite parties. Iran seems to have played an important role in both the Sadr ceasefire in Basra and in Sadr City, but some of the most lethal technology used in IEDs [improvised explosve devices], components for shaped charges, came from Iran."

They are preparing for day 1 of the US being out. Iraq is to be a new Ossetia

The report, dated Aug. 4, said Iran has been supplying rockets, mortars, explosively-formed projectiles and other weapons to Shi'ite militias. CSIS said the Mahdi Army, believed to have up to 40,000 fighters, contains Iranian advisers in an effort to model the militia after the Lebanese-based Hizbullah.
"The JAM certainly has some capability for paramilitary combat and urban warfare, but it is scarcely a well-organized, well disciplined, or capable force," the report said. "Muqtada Sadr and the Mahdi Army appear to have suffered significant losses in the course of 2008, but they remain the biggest Shi'ite threat to both the Iraqi government and the U.S.-led coalition."

Meanwhile Sistani says any US presence long term would violate Sharia.

Cordesman raised the prospect that Sadr has used so-called splinters of the Mahdi Army to attack the U.S.-led coalition. The report cited the Special Groups, whose attacks appear coordinated with the Mahdi Army and Iran.
"In spite of their limits and lack of practical combat experience the Mahdi Army and the Special Groups have been effective in using asymmetrical warfare in a number of past battles, and they remain the largest and most dangerous Shi'a militia in Iraq," the report said. "Their ability to adapt to military tactics and technological advancements has put further stress on the U.S. military both financially and mentally, and their ability to develop and/or employ devastating weapon systems has been a serious problem."
The Mahdi Army was said to be equipped with AK-47 Kalashnikov assault rifles, sniper rifles, grenades, rocket-propelled grenades, bombs, mortars and Katyusha rockets. The report said Mahdi has increased the size of its bombs to overcome the U.S.-origin Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle.
The U.S. military has already overseen development of a new prototype, MRAP-2. At the same time, Shi'ite militias have also decreased their use of EFPs by 70 percent since May 2008.

This has to end with a force field. No, really. Every up armoring in size and technology will only instill the development of larger IED's

The Mahdi Army has also been using the Improvised Rocket Assisted Mortar, also known as flying IEDs. IRAMs have been described as propane tanks packed with explosives, which use Iranian-origin 107 mm rocket charges. They have been launched from small trucks and fired in multiples of four to nine rockets by using cell phone signals or timers.
"There is a growing concern of weapon technology being transferred from Iran to Shi'a militias," the report said. "The use of these weapons has given the JAM a political impact much larger than its military impact."

But not that tiny ...63% of us favor whacking Iran if diplomacy fails

By epaminondas on August 28, 2008 6:55 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

"Iran, Cuba, Venezuela,
these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union," Obama said.
"They don't pose a serious threat to us " May 18, 2008

Sixty-three percent of Americans say that if diplomacy fails to solve the Iranian nuclear crisis, they would approve of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites, a new poll has found.
The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and commissioned by The Israel Project, also finds that 87% of US voters feel that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a threat to the US.
Meanwhile, 80% of Americans said it was likely Iran would use nuclear weapons if it acquired them.
The threat of Iran is apparently felt across the political spectrum, with 85% of Democrats and 97% of Republicans believing the Islamic Republic represents a serious threat to the US.
However, 62% of those polled also felt that it was still possible to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

Sorry, but that's a dream, folks. That's okay if you are prepared for the reality.

The approval rate for American military action against Iran was lower than that of an Israeli operation, with 55% supporting targeted strikes by the US and its allies.

Sigh....the american people are beleaguered and need leadership. Bush has FAILED as we can see from this number. 80% feel Iran would use nukes, but only slightly over half want to do something about that, the rest praying that Israel under Olmert/Livni would take action AND succeed. Puuuuuuulllleeeeeeeeeeeeeze !

Oh just perfect...Rafsanjani:Iran wants FUSION

By epaminondas on August 6, 2008 10:44 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

From MEMRI

Rafsanjani: Iran Beginning Work On Nuclear Fusion

Iranian Expediency Council chairman Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has announced that Iran is at the beginning of the first stage of nuclear fusion.

He said, "Nuclear fusion is more important and healthier than the nuclear fission presently in use."

Speaking to a gathering of student political activists, he said that the West would again confront Iran for using nuclear fusion, but that "since we are still at the early stage they will not confront us (now)."
He added that Iran must obtain advanced technologies like the U.S., Russia, China, and Japan in order to reduce the technological gap between it and these countries, and in order to "break the monopoly of global powers over advanced technology."

Dancing in the dark, when the tune ends we're dancing in the dark......

Maybe "O" man can talk them out of it when he sees them.

Iranian Secret Weapon Will Destroy US Ships from 200 Miles, also make you transgendered

By epaminondas on August 4, 2008 7:31 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran tests 'new weapon' for use at sea
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran announced Monday that it has tested a new weapon capable of sinking ships nearly 200 miles away, and reiterated threats to close a strategic waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf if attacked.

Up to 40 percent of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage along Iran's southern coast. Tehran has warned it could shut down tanker traffic there if attacked--a move likely to send oil prices skyrocketing.

The warnings came two days after a deadline expired for Iran to respond to incentives from six world powers, offered in exchange for a promise to curb its uranium enrichment.

I'm sick of these morons.

Let's dance.

It has the feel of the Bioweapons presentation Powell made ......BUT how can you ignore this stuff

By epaminondas on August 1, 2008 9:22 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

The one and only Bill Gertz:

Iran's high-altitude test was 'consistent with EMP attack' on U.S.
WASHINGTON -- A congressional commission warned that Iran is developing an advanced missile and a nuclear warhead meant to paralyze the United States.

The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse has concluded that Iran was planning to conduct a nuclear attack that could disable U.S. infrastructure.

Reported here before

The commission said Iran could install a nuclear warhead on a Shihab-3 missile that would result in an electromagnetic pulse that would destroy power, software and electronics.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seen here in 2007, said the country will not retreat in the face of demands by world powers for Teheran to halt sensitive nuclear work. AFP/ISNA

"Iran has also tested high-altitude explosions of the Shihab-3 a test mode consistent with EMP attack, and described the tests as successful.

Iranian military writings explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States," commission chairman William Graham said. "While the commission does not know the intention of Iran in conducting these activities, we are disturbed by the capability that emerges when we connect the dots."

In July 10 testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, Graham said Iran has already conducted missile tests from ships in the Caspian Sea. He said Iran could achieve the capability to conduct an EMP attack from a freighter in international waters off the coast of the United States.

"A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication," Graham said. "For example, an adversary would not have to have long-range ballistic missiles to conduct an EMP attack against the United States. Such an attack could be launched from a freighter off the U.S. coast using a short- or medium-range missile to loft a nuclear warhead to high-altitude. Terrorists sponsored by a rogue state could attempt to execute such an attack without revealing the identity of the perpetrators."

This kind of attack doesn't exactly need to have pinpoint accuracy either, does it?
What communications, besides hardened military communication would survive?
The far fetchedness of this idea derives partly from it's sheer horrifying impact on our ECONOMY and daily life. Forget those those electronic deposits, boyz & girlz. Forget starting your car. Forget the web. Forget TV. Forget radio. What's Farraday cage hardened in YOUR house?
I thought so.
If your work requires any kind of 'tech', well then, happy ditch digging at those temp stafffing jobs, IF YOU CAN GET THE GIG.
Someone had better get the hard intelligence to rule this out before it's mere possibility results in casus belli based on speculation. Retaliation by our military even if no two bricks stand on top of each other in Iran will not make up for the quadrillions of damage to our economy, and property, or the decades it will take to rebuild (but there will be plenty of oil, since no car or oil burner will be working)

The commission said a relatively low-yield nuclear weapon, including one installed on a Scud B, can be employed to generate an EMP attack over a huge area of the United States. The panel said Iran and other countries could acquire foreign assistance to complete development of a nuclear weapon.
"Potentially hostile states, such as North Korea and Iran, may also be developing the capability to pose an EMP threat to the United States, and may also be unpredictable and difficult to deter," Graham said. "With a Scud B, they could cover the east coast and the west coast [of the United States]."

There is only one question in all this ..can Iran be deterred from using nuclear weapons?

Or will this kind of thing be viewed as paralyzing the great satan to get at the little one.

Iran...'jews ascared...emigrating' after mighty mullah missile miracle

By epaminondas on July 19, 2008 10:57 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran: Missile drill causing massive Israeli emigration

IRNA news agency proudly reports to citizens of Islamic Republic that due to military maneuver held last week, of which evidence was said to be 'doctored', Israelis have begun to fearfully evacuate country
Dudi Cohen
Published: 07.14.08, 21:22 / Israel News

Iran continues to enjoy the dubious success of the military missile drill, which the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guard held last week. The Iranian news agency IRNA reported to the country's residents on Monday that the Israelis were so terrified by the display of power that it has sparked a mass emigration.

No doubt

Maybe they are only listening to each other over there. I read this stuff and it sounds like the Wehrmacht staff talking to der Fuhrer in the bunker ....

.... "Von Kleist vill destroy ze untermenschen mit ze Zird Army, mein Fuhrer"

"Yes I am from Dusseldorf und zat iz vy zey call me Rolf"

It's actually comedic

Is anyone else wondering what the hell they are imagining is going on?

There is no way the mass of people descended from the Achaemaenids can be this stupid, is there?

Leader- Iran's right to carry out preemptive action to defend its national security

By epaminondas on July 18, 2008 1:51 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran leaders disagree on who are their enemies, what they are planning
U.S. officials said that Iranian political and military leaders appear divided on the extent of the threat posed to Tehran. Iranian leaders divided on threat from U.S., Israel
Iranian political leaders have sought to play down a recent Israel military exercise over the Mediterranean that were viewed as preparation for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Iranian military and paramilitary leaders, by contrast, continue to sound the alarm as though military action against Iran was imminent.

Too bad, so sad.

Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohammad Ali Ja'fari said June 28 that Iran "must take the possibility of America putting its military threat into action more seriously." He then added: "Of course, I am not trying to say that military action is definite."
Other IRGC officers stated that recent Iranian missile test firings and naval exercises, codenamed Noble Prophet 3, were held in part due to perceived threats from the U.S. and Israel.
Several Iranian political leaders, by contrast, used standard rhetoric in recent statements that sought to minimize the potential for a war, in an apparent attempt to dispel worries among the population.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad stated in a July 8 speech that reports of possible U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were "funny jokes." He asserted that the U.S. political, economic and military situation precluded an attack.

My personal judgement is that THIS is the official view in side the Mullihtburo.In line with Hassan Abbasi, Bush was an exception and now he is defanged, sans stones

Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki stated on July 4 that both the United States and Israel were not capable politically of attacking Iran and would not "risk the craziness" of a strike.

No more wild cowboy Bush, since he is now Gates, and Rice's bitch. Make no mistake that THAT is their read.

Expediency Council Chairman Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, a key Iranian leader, stated June 29 that military threats were "psychological warfare." He warned that Israel or "its protectors" would "regret" attacking Iran, though he deemed it "unlikely" that Israel would commit "such a big mistake.
However, both military and political leaders have warned in recent weeks that Iran would respond forcefully to any attacks and also hinted that Tehran would use surrogate groups in the region and around the world to carry out attacks, a veiled reference to the likely use of terrorism by the Lebanese based Hezbollah terrorist group. Jafari told Iranian state television recently that "if the Zionist regime were to undertake the slightest action against our interests, either on its own or with America, all the areas under the control of the Zionist regime would very soon become insecure." He then warned "Muslim revolutionaries" throughout the Middle East would feel a "divine obligation to respond and confront such an attack," and that Iran would respond "quickly" and "beyond imagination."
Maj. Gen. Hassan Firuzabadi, the chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, warned on July 5 that Iran would "close down" the Strait of Hormuz if attacked.
The strategic waterway is used by tankers to supply between 20 and 40 percent of the world's oil.
One prominent Iranian, though not a member of the Tehran government, also has raised the possibility that Iran will take preemptive military action against either Israel or the United States. Mohammad Nabi Habibi, secretary general of the conservative Islamic Coalition Party, stated July 1 that he has urged the foreign ministry to "prepare international organizations to understand Iran's right to carry out preemptive action to defend its national security."
"The 33-day war (2006 Israel-Hezbollah war) showed that a preemptive attack is the best response to any kind of mischief," Habibi said.

Well, that would make it all prretty straight forward. I can't imagine our luck being that good.

Iran working on assymetric EMP weapon that could cripple all U.S. electronic systems

By epaminondas on July 18, 2008 1:30 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Gertz:

Iran is working on a nuclear weapon-related capability that could cripple all U.S. electronic systems with a massively disrupting electromagnetic pulse over the United States or elsewhere, a specialist on EMP told Congress last week.

William Graham, head of a congressional commission that investigated EMP threat, said the United States is vulnerable to attack by electromagnetic pulse weapons from Iran, as well as North Korea, China and Russia.
"Several potential adversaries have -- and more can acquire -- the capability to attack the United States with a high altitude nuclear weapon generated electromagnetic pulse," said Graham told the House Armed Services Committee.
"A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication," Graham said during a hearing last week. "EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. A well coordinated and widespread cyber attack is another potential example."
An EMP strike would cover a wide geographic region and would cause significant damage to critical infrastructures and "thus the very fabric of society," he said.
Graham was the head of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack that first reported on the dangers in 2004.
The U.S. government needs to prepare for a future EMP attack through a combination of prevention, planning, training, maintaining situational awareness, protection and preparations for recovery.
"In so doing, the U.S. will reduce the incentives for adversaries to conduct such an attack on our homeland, our friends and allies, and our forces deployed abroad," Graham said. Among the threat scenarios are EMP attacks using a nuclear warhead detonated from a missile fired from a freight over U.S. territory, a terrorist attack sponsored by a rogue state.
Graham said Iran has conducted missile launches from a vessel in the Caspian Sean and has tested high-altitude explosions from the Shahab-3 medium-range missile.
"Iranian military writings explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States," Graham said.
Graham said there is no other explanation for Iran's high-altitude detonation tests or the freighter launch of the missile "other than to deploy an EMP type of attack."
He noted that relatively low-yield, unsophisticated nuclear weapons can be used to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas, and designs for variants of such weapons, as well as more sophisticated weapons, appear to have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter century at least.

More info HERE, article written in 2000.

North Korea also reportedly has the capability to mount an advanced nuclear weapon on a missiles, he said.
Additionally, China and Russia in the past considered limited nuclear attack options that, unlike their Cold War plans, employ EMP as the primary or sole means of attack, Graham said.
"Indeed, in May, 1999 during the NATO bombing of former Yugoslavia, high-ranking members of the Russian Duma meeting with the U.S. congressional delegation to discuss the Balkans conflict raised the specter of a Russian EMP attack that would paralyze the United States," he said.
Also, two weeks ago Assistant Defense Secretary James J. Shinn told the same committee that "China's military is working on exotic electromagnetic pulse weapons that can devastate electronics systems by using a burst of energy similar to that produced by a nuclear blast," Graham said.
Rep. Rosco Bartlett, R-Md and a leader in highlighting the threat, called potential EMP attacks on the country a "real threat."
"It's my understanding that a robust lay-down, like we produced by a single weapon of 200 kilovolts per meter that made it 300 miles high over Iowa or Nebraska, would probably shut down all of our national infrastructure," Bartlett said. "There would be no electricity. The SCATA units in our substations and so forth would all be gone. The large transformers would be destroyed, and we don't make those. It would take a year and a half or so to buy them from somebody overseas who makes them."

Iran negotiating with Belarus for strategic air defense system ...

By epaminondas on July 15, 2008 7:20 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

GERTZ:

LONDON -- Western intelligence sources said Belarus has been negotiating the sale of a strategic air defense system to Iran.

The sources the two countries have been discussing Iranian procurement of surplus Soviet-origin S-300 air defense systems from Belarus. They said the proposed acquisition was regarded as an interim measure until Teheran procures the S-400 Triumf air and missile defense system from Russia.
"Iran needs a major air defense system now to protect against U.S. and Israeli threats," the intelligence source said. "Teheran has been searching for surplus S-300 systems for sale from former Soviet republics."
The London-based Jane's Defence Weekly reported that Belarus has offered two S-300PT systems retired from the air defense umbrella around Minsk. The S-300PT, known in NATO as the SA-10A Grumble, was said to have an interception range of about 75 kilometers.
The S-300PT is a towed system that contains the Fakel 5V55K interceptor, with a range of 47 kilometers, and the TVM guided missile, which can travel 75 kilometers. The system comes with the baseline 5V55R semi-active radar.
Jane's said Iran was in the "final stage of negotiations" with Belarus for the S-300PT. Western intelligence sources said Iran has sought to acquire delivery of the first low-to-high altitude system by late 2008.
Iran has also advanced in negotiations with Russia for the S-400.
The sources said Moscow has agreed, in principle, to the sale of the air and missile defense system despite U.S. opposition.

The S-400 Triumph was developed by the Almaz Central Design Bureau and stemmed from the S-300PMU air defense system. Industry sources said the S-400 could detect and destroy airborne targets at a distance of up to 400 kilometers, or 2.5 times greater than the S-300PMU.

Maples did not forecast when Iran would purchase the S-400, which Russia said was superior to the U.S.-origin PAC-3 missile defense system. Triumph includes radars said to be capable of detecting low-signature targets. (In other words, they are claiming it can see F-117 and B-2 as well at the new F-22 and F-35 stealth aircraft)

Industry sources said Russia's Fakel Machine Building Design Bureau has developed two missiles for Triumph. One so-called "big missile" was said to have a range of up to 400 kilometers and could destroy airborne early-warning and control aircraft as well as jammers.

s-400 long range anti stealth air defense.jpg

The so-called "small missile" was identified as 9M96, designed to destroy aircraft and air-delivered weapons at ranges of more than 120 kilometers. The sources said this missile, equipped with an active homing head, could intercept non-strategic ballistic missiles.

These systems should be thought of as variants of the US Aegis radars and their accompanying missile systems, but Russia has succeeded in creating a land mobile system of sensors and missiles in suite which THEY CLAIM can be used to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles, aircraft, stealth aircraft and small cruise missiles.

It's the mullahs, stupid..Passive Defense to save Hojatieh freaks?

By epaminondas on July 13, 2008 8:01 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

No mullahs, maybe no nukes, but certainly far fewer problems.

And let me tell you, THEY are concerned not just with losing their nuclear program, but that the strike to remove it, will in fact, be one prolonged to remove them.

And they had better be right.

MEMRI:

IRGC -the war and the administration

of the population are inseparably linked.

Despite confident pronouncements by Iranian leaders that the West will not dare to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, [1] the Iranian regime has, on orders from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, been preparing for this eventuality by means of a comprehensive emergency plan called "Passive Defense." [2] Examination of the plan reveals that the regime's main fear is of an attack on Iran's vital infrastructures, which would ultimately lead to its downfall. Therefore, alongside a defense doctrine based on preemptive attack, long-range ballistic missiles, and asymmetric guerilla warfare, [3] it has formulated a doctrine of "passive defense," based mainly on cooperation between regional Passive Defense Councils and the regime's popular militia, the Basij.
In fact, analysis of the plan reveals that the Basij plays a central role in it.
The Nature of a Possible U.S. Attack
Jalali expressed Iran's concern that the West would attack Iran from the sea and air with the aim of destroying vital infrastructure, ultimately bringing about the downfall of the regime. He said:
"With military bases and forces around [Iran], America has access to the entire territory of the country. The Islamic Republic of Iran is a political regime that relies upon the [Iranian] people... If the enemy aims to change the regime, it can achieve this by disrupting the [regime's ability] to administer the population. To this end, the enemy will attempt to paralyze infrastructures and the vital institutions of the regime, in order to sow dissatisfaction among the people.
"Under these circumstances, the war and the administration of the population are inseparably linked. That is, the enemy will try to destroy the infrastructures [vital to] people's lives, and we must protect the people while providing necessary services. According to some analyses, the [2006] Lebanon war was 'a war of bridges,' because Israel destroyed all bridges in Lebanon, large and small, in order to cut off all land routes. In other words, in that war, the immediate aim was to [destroy] the infrastructures [that permit] administering the population, but the ultimate aim was to render such administration impossible.
"Asked in an interview about the nature of a possible attack on Iran, and [in particular] on Tehran, a U.S. colonel said that... [U.S. forces] would be deployed around the city, would strike its infrastructures from the air, and would, with the help of elements affiliated with [the U.S.], sow dissatisfaction among people. In other words, using these two methods - destruction of infrastructure and psychological warfare - [they] will instigate a popular uprising against the government. To confront this kind of threat, we must employ all [our] defense strategies and abilities. This is asymmetrical warfare, since our military capabilities are not on par with those of the U.S. Hence, if we want to stand up [to the U.S.], we must employ 'passive defense' along with 'active defense' [i.e. military warfare], striving to achieve a 'combined defense' [strategy]." [22]

Ironically this attitude of the IRGC argues that Iran is a deterrable entity, after all the supreme

leader of supreme leaders said:

"We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. For patriotism is another name for paganism. I say let this land [Iran] burn. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world."

If Iran is not apocalyptic, then they can be treated as the USSR. The attitude of the IRGC seems concerned with preserving the regime. So who are they...typical corrupt despots wearing funny hats, or lunatic apocalyptoids of the deep, trying to arrange getting 72 pieces of ass in some imagined heaven?

And the Israeli calculus edges closer- IAF practices in Iraq- as oil goes over $146 on nerves

By epaminondas on July 11, 2008 9:17 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Oil isn't going to come down until the USA proves we can PROTECT oil traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz...meanwhile,,,,,

JPOST:

Israel Air Force (IAF) war planes are practicing in Iraqi airspace and land in US airbases on the country as preparation for a potential strike on Iran, sources in the Iraqi Defense Ministry told a local news network, Friday.

The report, carried also by Iranian news outlets, claimed that recently massive nocturnal activity by IAF craft was noted in several American held airbases, including measures by the US army to increase security around the bases.
The Jerusalem Post could not confirm the veracity of the report.
According to the sources, former military officers in the Anbar province said IAF jets arrive during the night from Jordanian airspace, enter Iraq's airspace and land on a runway near the city of Hadita. The sources estimated the jets were practicing for a raid on Iran's nuclear sites.
The sources also said the American bases in Iraq might serve as a platform for the IAF from which to attack Iran. If Israeli warplanes will take off from Iraq, they can reach Bushehr in five minutes - a "record time," the sources said.
After reports of a massive IAF exercise over the Mediterranean surfaced several weeks ago, an Israeli official told the times that the drill was "the dress rehearsal" for an attack on Iran's nuclear sites.

The Photoshop Missiles of Iran, and Saddam's BIG MISTAKE

By epaminondas on July 11, 2008 8:30 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Don't you just wonder, btw, how much the livers of the Kosites and, DU's and Puffho's are filled with bile at LGF and Charles Johnson, AGAIN, and AGAIN....

We now know, from the interviews with Saddam after his capture, that he was trying to convince everyone he really DID have WMD's when he prevented the UN inspectors from fulfilling their tasks in the months leading up to the invasion of Iraq.He also believed the USA could be stopped via his plethora of bribes to the UN, France, Russia and Germany, and that he would be free to act once the same process had lifted sanctions.

Of course WE KNOW, that in the post Pearl Harbor, post 9/11 USA, nothing could have more guaranteed our invasion than his actions over a threat which did not exist, but he did the most to insure we believed was real.

Comes our new friends, the Hojatieh of Iran and the mad mullahs dead set on making us believe they are willing and able to create a 'ball of fire' in the middle east, and their unwitting sunni allies warning of 'unlimited oil' price increases, when they are afraid the whole thing (Israel unleashing a process begun by Iran....) will result in such chaos they get chopped.

So we see their new plane, which turns out to be really a 1960's US trainer, the T-38, which we made in to a low tech lightweight fighter for Taiwan (the F-5), with twin tails 40 years later.
Their navy, while they now own several VERY CAPABLE Russian Kilo subs, remains based on cigar boat swarm tactics, and now to enhance THEIR deterrence they resort to Photoshop to Crayola in extra missiles as if this makes a difference to the those who are trying to figure out if the Iranian nuclear test will be in Tel Aviv.

This is a reminder to be critical in our approch to Iran.
They are not ten feet tall.
That means they may be making the same mistake Saddam made.

Our error in Iraq has meaning. It's not enough to believe they are doing what we think they are, WE must be certain. Israel, however has a different calculus to figure.

Never the less, I hope someone is delivering a message to Khameinei that if they are making up things up to deter us, as Saddam did, they are on the exact path to ENSURE we attack them by their lies, and people are going to get killed for NOTHING. Only they know where they are in their process to refine enough U-235, or/and then process plutonium for weapons. Maybe they are 5 years off (I doubt it), or maybe they are months away (far more likely...it took us 10 months in 1944-45), but if they are 5 years off, and are trying to convince us it's 5 months ..... Iraq redux, without the occupation.

IAEA on bombed Syrian 'nuke site' : "three-man inspection team did not find obvious traces of nuclear material"

By epaminondas on July 5, 2008 8:48 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Where to begin? Maybe with a middle east as a 'Baradei'en ball of fire?

N. Koreans cleaned out Al Kibar site months before IAEA showed up (Today's MENSA News headline!)
LONDON -- The International Atomic Energy Agency was said to have arrived to a suspected nuclear site in Syria months after a major clean-up by crews from North Korea.

Ya think?

Western intelligence sources said North Korea removed virtually all traces of nuclear equipment from the Al Kibar plutonium facility in northeastern Syria. The sources said that within three months another building was completed on the site.
"The clean-up took place in the first two weeks after the Israeli air strike," an intelligence source said. "The assessment is that the North Koreans removed everything."
The sources said Al Kibar, destroyed in an Israeli air strike in September 2007, had not yet received a shipment of uranium or other radioactive material. They said the Al Kibar program was headed by Chon Chibu, a senior nuclear official and scientist in North Korea.

What international agreement with NoKo on nuclear weapons?

On June 24, the IAEA completed a four-day inspection of Al Kibar. The agency, whose access was restricted by Syria, reported that its three-man inspection team did not find obvious traces of nuclear material.
"There is still work that needs to be done," IAEA deputy director-general Olli Heinonen said. "We will see in the days and weeks what will happen next."
Heinonen said the inspectors took environmental samples over a large area. In a June 25 briefing, he did not elaborate.

"We achieved what we wanted on this first trip," Heinonen said. "We continue our discussions, we took the samples we need to take and now it's time to analyze them and also look at the information we got from Syria."
The intelligence sources said North Korea, which on Juen 26 saw the lifting of U.S. sanctions, had constructed the 21-meter high plutonium production facility and was planning to begin operations when Israel destroyed the building in 2007. The sources said the reactor had not yet been completed.
The CIA has concluded that Al Kibar was meant to house a nuclear reactor modeled after that in Yongbyon, North Korea. The sources said IAEA has sought to determine the source of nuclear fuel for the Syrian reactor as well as the location of any reprocessing fuel plant.

B4 WW2, Hitler paid Stalin to train the Wehrmacht, and had manufacturing facilities there to cheat on the Versailles pact, so now....

By epaminondas on July 5, 2008 8:24 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

What axis of evil?
GERTZ:

Iran paid N. Korea for plutonium facility and had scientists based there

LONDON -- Western intelligence sources said Iranian scientists were stationed at the Syrian plutonium production plant in Al Kibar, destroyed in an Israeli air strike in September 2007.

Sequence of photos: By late October 2007, workers covered the site with earth [1], and subsequently laid a new foundation [2], and erected a light metal-framework building [3] over the site of the destroyed reactor. GlobalSecurity.org

They said the Iranians as well as Syrian personnel were trained by North Korea to operate Al Kibar, designed to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons.
"Had Al Kibar not been destroyed, Iranian scientists would have played a major role in plutonium production," a Western source said.
The sources said Al Kibar was virtually completed by the time the Israel Air Force bombed the facility. They said the facility was not believed to have received nuclear material.
Iran paid North Korea for the construction of Al Kibar, the sources said. They said Teheran, which has been completing a heavy water plant at Arak, sought to establish the plutonium production facility to conduct nuclear weapons assembly outside of Iran and near Israel.
Teheran has also financed joint missile production with Syria. The sources said Iran's remaining obstacle to nuclear weapons was the ability to install a nuclear warhead on a missile delivery system.
The Iranian delivery system selected for a nuclear warhead has been the Shihab-3B intermediate-range missile, the sources said. They said Iran, with assistance from North Korea, was expected to complete weaponization by mid-2009.

Apparently this source is NOT EXACTLY UP ON THINGS.

Khan's stolen nuke weapon plans small enough to fit on Shihab 3 type missile

All of this baloney all comes down to three items.
ONE- Is Iran engaged in building nuclear weapons? (DUH)
TWO- Can Iran be negotiated out of being 'bad'? (DUH)
THREE- Can Iran's leaders be deterred just like any other 'normal, non apocalypse believing' nation?

Israel, Iran and the law of untintended consequence - the day after

By epaminondas on June 26, 2008 5:27 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

We have all read of the CBS report that Israel has told Bush that if Iran is not stopped diplomatically before an Obama might take office, they will.

Bill O'Reilly has taken the day after this attack and postulated the political, economic, and military isolation of Israel, and the economic collapse of the world's totally interlocked economy as oil prices double or worse in 24 hours or less after such an attack. (Wish we were drilling everywhere yet?)

1) Can the world economy take an Iran attacked and oil prices doubling? Will oil double?
2) Would Obama revert to Middle East policies before 1967, i.e;, an arms embargo in the ME?

Free Online Poll

Khan's stolen nuke weapon plans small enough to fit on Shihab 3 type missile

By epaminondas on June 24, 2008 7:04 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

"In the last year, we've uncovered probably the most significant hemorrhaging of nuclear weapons technology since the Soviets penetrated the Manhattan Project [in 1947]"

Gertz -
Report reflects four years of research into AQ Khan's ring, and the discovery of the new computer plans in Switzerland....
Money lines..

In 2003, Libya acknowledged receiving blueprints from Khan. But the designs were those of an old and largely obsolete atomic bomb.
In contrast, the Swiss nationals who represented Khan acquired a design for a smaller atomic weapon that could be installed on a ballistic missile. The report said the design -- believed obtained from Pakistan's nuclear weapons program -- would be suitable for the missiles that Iran and Libya have deployed.
The Swiss nationals, at least two of whom remain in jail, also possessed hundreds of pages of files that provided instructions on assembling an advanced nuclear weapon.

......
A report by the Institute for Science and International Security determined that the nuclear smuggling ring led by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan obtained blueprints of an advanced atomic weapon and sold nuclear components and technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.
"These advanced nuclear weapons designs may have long ago been sold off to some of the most treacherous regimes in the world," the report, authored by institute president David Albright, said.
The Khan blueprint was discovered in 2006 on computers owned by Swiss nationals -- Marco and Urs Tinner and their father, Friedrich -- who worked with the smuggling ring. The contents of the computers were destroyed by Switzerland under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

WORSE AND WORSE...

The report said the information could have solved the warhead difficulties for both Iran and North Korea.
"These would have been ideal for two of Khan's other major customers, Iran and North Korea," the report said. "They both faced struggles in building a nuclear warhead small enough to fit atop their ballistic missiles, and these designs were for a warhead that would fit."
While reliable information from inside Pakistan is difficult to come by, it is known that Abdul Qadeer Khan brought millions of dollars into the coffers of Pakistan's ruling military elite. Despite claims by his friend, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, the evidence suggests Khan wasn't motivated by greed. Instead, Khan seems to have been authorized to promote Pakistan's nuclear weapons development through the sale of blueprints and technology to oil-rich Middle East states and the relay of such expertise to such partners as North Korea.
While Khan may not be the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, as he is known, he was clearly the most politically connected and PR-minded of Pakistan's nuclear developers. Khan didn't merely supervise development of Pakistan's bomb; he also helped develop Pakistan's Ghauri intermediate-range missile.
Khan, who had been feted and wooed by Pakistani presidents since 1976, may have been working for Musharraf, who pardoned in 2004 his favorite scientist immediately after he was charged.
"In the last year, we've uncovered probably the most significant hemorrhaging of nuclear weapons technology since the Soviets penetrated the Manhattan Project [in 1947]," said Joseph Cirincione, director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"Pakistan had a multinational, sophisticated operation selling some of the most advanced nuclear weapons technology in the world. We are now claiming it as an intelligence coup, but not imposing penalties of any kind on Pakistan or any of the senior officials involved in this network," he said.
The discovery of the Pakistani nuclear black market disproved the long-held theory that Islamabad would be responsible in its nuclear development program. For decades, the conventional thinking in the CIA and State Department had been that Pakistan would never endanger its standing as an emerging nuclear power by sharing such technology with other countries.

How can RESPONSIBLE, PRUDENT leaders do other than assume that Iran and others inimical to our way of life, have in their possession both the means to manufacture sufficient U-235, and the designs to build a weapon SMALL ENOUGH to fit on an inaccurate (how accurtae does it have to be at 50 kilotons?) older generation liquid fueled missile?

This report does not state that the designs for the small weapon was for a plutonium weapon, or a modern american hydrogen weapon. It states "these designs were for a warhead that would fit".

Any bets on Israel attacking Iran sometime after the November election, and before any other president takes office? How on earth can they do other?

Obama on Defense

By epaminondas on June 23, 2008 4:49 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

"I will cut investments in 'unproven' missile defense systems"
HERE

Successful Sea-Based Missile Defense Intercept
Story Number: NNS080606-08
Release Date: 6/6/2008 1:28:00 PM

From Missile Defense Agency Public Affairs
WASHINGTON (NNS) -- Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry "Trey" Obering III, Missile Defense Agency (MDA) director, announced the successful completion of the latest flight test of the sea-based Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) element, conducted jointly with the U.S. Navy off the coast of Kauai, Hawaii.

The event, designated as Flight Test Maritime-14 (FTM-14), marked the fourteenth overall successful intercept, in 16 attempts, for the Aegis BMD program and the second successful intercept of a terminal phase (last few seconds of flight) target by a modified Standard Missile - 2 Block IV (SM-2 Blk IV) interceptor.

The mission was completed by the cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG 70), using the tactically-certified Aegis BMD shipboard weapon system, modified for a terminal capability, and the modified SM-2 Blk IV. This is the 35th successful terminal and midcourse defense intercept in 43 tests since 2001.

Iran to get ICBMs before missile shield deployed

by Damien McElroy, Foreign Affairs Correspondent, Telegraph UK

Last updated: 7:31 PM BST 23/06/2008

America's proposed missile shield in Europe is unlikely to be operational before Iran acquires inter-continental weapons, it has emerged.

The latest setback to hit the troubled project came after Defence Department experts refused to certify the interceptor missiles to shoot down an incoming threat because they had not been fully tested.
Washington had set a 2013 deadline to finish the system but defence experts believe the Pentagon will miss that date by up to five years.
Democrats in Congress had threatened to withhold funding for the system until certification was obtained.
Meanwhile experts believe Iran will be able to produce inter-continental ballistic missiles capable of reaching Europe, and possibly America, by 2015. Some intelligence reports suggest Iran will have obtained the amount of uranium needed for a nuclear weapon much sooner.
The Pentagon claimed that earlier tests on interceptor missiles in the US missile defence system had proved the viability of the European systems. Scientists disagreed, pointing to significant design differences, most importantly that the European system relied on two stage rockets, one less than the American version.
"It is important to know that this system will work effectively before we buy or deploy it," said Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

A weapons system which aims at no person, harms no person, and has no collateral damage, and yet still, B Obama is against it, along with those others who despite protesting too much, are clearly obvious in the disdain for service, those who serve, and WHY they serve.

The phone call Israel should have made yesterday

By epaminondas on June 21, 2008 9:48 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

"Mr. President, yesterday some unknown 'official' of your govt, whom the NYT deemed to be senior and in the know, revealed details of an exercise Israel conducted, and was compelled to conduct for reasons you well understand.

We wish to express that as an american ally, an important ally, perhaps at this particular moment an ally more important than any NATO ally, we regard this revelation as the act of an unfriendly power, and we wish to understand what your plans are to prevent something like this from happening again, and more importantly, MUCH more importanrtly, just wanted to let you know, that this revelation has caused us to greatly accelerate then plans which we don't wish to see carreid out in the first place.

We know your reservations.

We have no alternative acceptable choice.

Lavrov can kiss our collective jewish asses."

One thing you can be sure of.
No such call was made.
American policy was made by a leak, and Israeli plans, perhaps constrained by the level of detail revealed, and Iran's weapons program will march ahead by the willful actions and inactions of the govts of this world, who will do nothing until after it is too late, and a regional nuclear war is on.

Who's on First?

By epaminondas on June 20, 2008 6:09 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

U.S. says exercise by Israel seemed directed at Iran?

NYT, IHT :"Several American officials said they did not believe that the Israeli government had concluded that it must attack Iran and did not think that such a strike was imminent."

The only argument in favor of such a totally stupid conclusion is that Olmert is in charge of Israel.

WASHINGTON: Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military's capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran's nuclear program.

More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuvers, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece during the first week of June, American officials said.

The exercise also included Israeli helicopters that could be used to rescue downed pilots. The helicopters and refueling tankers flew more than 900 miles, which is about the same distance between Israel and Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, American officials said.

That's the money line. They practiced retrieving pilots. 900 miles for helicopter? Mammoth.

Israeli officials declined to discuss the details of the exercise. A spokesman for the Israeli military would say only that the country's air force "regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel."

But the scope of the Israeli exercise virtually guaranteed that it would be noticed by American and other foreign intelligence agencies. A senior Pentagon official who has been briefed on the exercise, and who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the political delicacy of the matter, said the exercise appeared to serve multiple purposes.

One Israeli goal, the Pentagon official said, was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and all other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclear installations and its long-range conventional missiles.

A second, the official said, was to send a clear message to the United States and other countries that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter.

"They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official said. "There's a lot of signaling going on at different levels."

I don't think so.The goal was to PRACTICE DESTROYING THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM, not to signal the Electrical Workers of America that union negotiations were going to be tougher if there was no settlement. If people noticed, maybe that would do some good in the minds of morons, but have no doubt, they practiced taking out the Iranians. They practiced that to get it right.

Mullahs to chicks: I can see your index finger, dress heavier

By epaminondas on June 16, 2008 2:05 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iranian police have launched a more extensive crackdown on "social corruption" such as women flouting Islamic dress codes, the Farhang-e Ashti newspaper reported on Monday.

"In its wider crackdown which has started from Saturday, police will confront those who appear in public in an indecent way and will also seal off shops selling un-Islamic dress," the newspaper said, quoting an unnamed police official.

The dress code imposed after Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution requires women to cover all their hair and wear long, loose-fitting clothes to disguise the shape of their bodies.

Violators can receive lashes, fines or imprisonment.

The authorities usually launch crackdowns before the hot summer months when women like to wear lighter clothing such as calf-length pants and brightly colored scarves pushed back to expose plenty of hair.

But enforcement of strict moral codes governing women's dress became more strict since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad swept to power in 2005 with the backing of conservative clerics and the Basij religious forces who condemn such "un-Islamic" practices.

"Police will seize women with tight coats and cropped trousers and also men with Western-style hair cut will be arrested," the newspaper said.

Especially in the urban areas, many women ignore traditional head-to-toe black chadors. The Islamic dress code is less commonly challenged in poor suburbs and rural regions.

"Men with Western-style haircuts were confronted by police and also barber shops that gave them such haircuts were sealed off on Sunday," said the daily.

Some women, testing the boundaries of the law by wearing tight clothes were also confronted by morality police, located mainly at the affluent northern Tehran squares.

"Police also swept through popular shopping centers, where such outfits are sold and some of those shops were sealed off," the daily said.

(Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Stephen Weeks)

Say, who actually owns Bushehr, Natanz and those P-1 and 2 centrifuges?

By epaminondas on June 16, 2008 11:26 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Gertz:

Firm owned by elite IRGC involved in Iran's civilian nuclear program

LONDON -- Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps owns a company said to be active in Iran's nuclear program.
In a development that has alarmed nuclear investigators, the International Atomic Energy Agency has identified an IRGC company that was participating in Iran's ostensibly civilian nuclear program. IRGC, an elite military of more than 125,000 troops, has been overseeing the country's strategic programs, including the ballistic missile project.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has identified an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps company that was participating in Iran's ostensibly civilian nuclear program. AP

The IRGC company was identified as Kimia Maadan.

Kimia was said to join other companies and agencies owned by the military -- including the Physics Research Center, Institute of Applied Physics, Educational Research Institute and Defense Industries Organization -- that supported Iran's nuclear program.
"...The role of military related institutes, such as the Physics Research Center, the Institute of Applied Physics and the Education Research Institute -- and their staff -- needs to be better understood, also in view of the fact that substantial parts of the centrifuge components were manufactured in the workshops of the Defense Industries Organization," the agency said. "The agency also needs to understand fully the reasons for the involvement of military related institutions in procurement for the nuclear program."
Kimia, once described by Iran as a private company, was established in 2000 to help mine uranium. The company has been managed by IRGC Brig. Gen. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, identified as a nuclear weapons designer.
Teheran has told IAEA that Kimia ended operations in 2003. But the agency has determined that the company remained a key player in Iran's nuclear project.
An IAEA report asserted that Iran has been conducting activities that cast doubts on Teheran's declaration that its nuclear program was civilian. The report, dated May 26, cited Teheran's effort to design a missile re-entry vehicle and construct a uranium conversion facility.
The uranium conversion facility was meant to transform uranium dioxide to UF4, or Green Salt. The process has been regarded as vital in the production of uranium metal for weapons cores.
"The agency understands that Iran may have additional information, in particular on high explosives testing and missile related activities, which could shed more light on the nature of the alleged activities," IAEA director-general Mohammed El Baradei said.
Iran has focused on enhancing its Shihab-3 ballistic missile, with a range of more than 2,000 kilometers. IAEA said the Shihab-3 was modified to ensure detonation at a point 650 meters above its target, a capability required for nuclear warheads.
"This information, which was provided to the agency by several member states, appears to have been derived from multiple sources over different periods of time, is detailed in content, and appears to be generally consistent," the report, released on June 2, said. "The agency received much of this information only in electronic form and was not authorized to provide copies to Iran."
The agency said Iran, who has dismissed the latest information as a fabrication, has developed and tested exploding bridgewire detonators. The report also cited high explosives testing, another requirement for nuclear weapons.
"A second aspect," the report said, "concerns the development and testing of high voltage detonator firing equipment and exploding bridgewire [EBW] detonators including, inter alia, the simultaneous firing of multiple EBW detonators; an underground testing arrangement and the testing of at least one full scale hemispherical, converging, explosively driven shock system that could be applicable to an implosion-type nuclear device. A third aspect of the studies concerns development work alleged to have been performed to redesign the inner cone of the Shihab-3 missile re-entry vehicle to accommodate a nuclear warhead."
Iran has acknowledged simultaneous testing with two to three EBW detonators with a time precision of about one microsecond, the agency said. Teheran, however, maintained that the tests were intended for civil and conventional military applications.
"It should be noted that the agency currently has no information -- apart from the uranium metal document -- on the actual design or manufacture by Iran of nuclear material components of a nuclear weapon or of certain other key components, such as initiators, or on related nuclear physics studies," the report said. "As regards the uranium metal document found in Iran, Pakistan has confirmed, in response to the agency's request that an identical document exists in Pakistan."

Very nice when fitted with the previous post

It's more dire than even I thought....AQ Khan, and time running out on civilization

By epaminondas on June 16, 2008 10:52 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

From Gertz we have this:

Investigation report: A.Q. Khan network was anti-U.S.
A four-year investigation into the covert nuclear supplier network headed by A.Q. Khan, the Pakistani nuclear designer, disclosed that the centrifuge technician was motivated to supply goods to Iran and Libya because he disliked the United States.
Pakistan's The News reported May 31 that the government investigation revealed that money was not the sole motivation for supplying nuclear goods to Tehran and Tripoli.
Quoting senior Pakistan government sources, the newspaper stated that "the main reason behind nuclear proliferation was because Dr. Khan disliked the U.S. policies."
Khan told investigations that he believed that if Iran and Libya became nuclear weapons states, pressure on Pakistan to halt its nuclear program would be diverted.
Khan also believed the U.S. might destroy Iran or Libya and therefore he wanted to help these nations develop a nuclear deterrent.
According to the report, investigators could not prove U.S. government suspicions that Khan was in contact with Al Qaida leader Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, mastermind of the September 11 attacks. Other links to the terrorist group or the Taliban also could not be proved.
Khan told the newspaper that he was not tortured and did not speak to any foreign investigators during the past four years. "I am a Pathan and nobody could dare touch me because all Pathans would take revenge if anything happened to me," he said.
"I will not answer any question posed by any foreign investigator," he said.
Khan said he was "dragged" into the international proliferation network as the result of a sting operation against Iran and Libya.

A little reminder about the supported nature of this program, HERE

And the from WaPo:

Smugglers Had Design For Advanced Warhead
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, June 15, 2008; A01
An international smuggling ring that sold bomb-related parts to Libya, Iran and North Korea also managed to acquire blueprints for an advanced nuclear weapon, according to a draft report by a former top U.N. arms inspector that suggests the plans could have been shared secretly with any number of countries or rogue groups.
The drawings, discovered in 2006 on computers owned by Swiss businessmen,
included essential details for building a compact nuclear device that could be fitted on a type of ballistic missile used by Iran and more than a dozen developing countries, the report states.
The computer contents -- among more than 1,000 gigabytes of data seized -- were recently destroyed by Swiss authorities under the supervision of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, which is investigating the now-defunct smuggling ring previously led by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.
But U.N. officials cannot rule out the possibility that the blueprints were shared with others before their discovery, said the report's author, David Albright, a prominent nuclear weapons expert who spent four years researching the smuggling network.

Now, I was always figuring that the deliverability factor was the one giving the free world a little bit of leveraged time with regard to Iran handing off to anyone. I think there is not much doubt that based on what we know alone of their program they can have enough U-235 for a weapon in months.10-12 months being the limit, at the outside. 6 months or so the inside. But it's one thing to have 20 lbs of U-235 and another to create a deliverable weapon, other wise you have to drive it quietly to it's destination and detonate. Not THAT easy. Easier in the USA than in Israel, I think.

But from AQ Khan et al we now have the news that for years a design advanced enough for a weapon to be mounted on Iran's existing missiles has been digitally available to the bad guys.

If this news is accurate, and as WaPo makes clear it IS, than it is impossible to assume anything other than that the bad people HAVE THE DESIGN and that this will follow in a matter of months the availability of U-235.

Labor Day, 2009.

At the latest.

Spring 2009 Earliest.

McCain or Obama? Earth to the American electorate.

The strategic implications are vast.

Iraq (our men). Afghanistan (Our men). All reachable.

Israel, either our most important or second most important ally.

Then comes the worry about oil, and Kuwait, KSA and the rest.

"Iran-Syria ties are strategic ties founded on the national interests of the two countries and the world of Islam" uh, whatever

By epaminondas on June 10, 2008 7:49 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran, Syria sign another military cooperation agreement
NICOSIA GERTZ-- Iran and Syria have signed another memorandum of understanding meant to expedite weapons procurement during the visit to Teheran by Syrian Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani.
Officials said Turkmani and his Iranian counterpart, Mustafa Najar, agreed on May 27 to expand military training, technical exchanges and visits.

Translation - "we need to have for capabale and facile means of getting arms and other equipment to Hizballah, while also trying to undermine these syrian fools, and turn them into vassals"

"Iran-Syria ties are strategic ties founded on the national interests of the two countries and the world of Islam," Najar said.
The MoU was signed less than a week after a Syrian military delegation concluded a visit to Russia to discuss weapons procurement. Syria, armed with a pledge of Iranian financial aid, has been examining such Russian platforms as the MiG-29SMT fighter-jet, S-300PMU-2 air defense system and the Amur-1650 submarine.

"The robust Iran-Syria ties neutralize and weaken threats against the line of resistance," Turkmani said.
Iran and Syria have shared weapons and development as well as cooperating in the arming of the Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah in Lebanon. The Iranian government has expressed interest in expanding such ties in 2008.
"So far, Iran's and Syria's joint and mutual relations in various fields have been of utmost usefulness and defense relations must expand to the extent possible," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said after meeting Turkmani.
On May 26, Israeli military intelligence asserted that Syria was maintaining the weapons flow to Hizbullah in Lebanon. Brig. Gen. Yossi Baidatz, head of the Israeli military intelligence's research division, told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iranian weapons were being flown to Damascus. From the Syrian capital, the weapons, including rockets, made their way by truck to the Lebanese border.

World yawns here.

"The weapons are arriving in Lebanon, and then they make their way to the south of the country [to Hizbullah]" Baidatz said. "The rockets are coming in from Syria and Iran."

All that's missing is the date of the next dance

Israeli Minister: "If Iran continues its nuclear weapons programme, we will attack it"

By epaminondas on June 6, 2008 8:47 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

An Israeli deputy prime minister on Friday warned that Iran would face attack if it pursues what he said was its nuclear weapons programme.

"If Iran continues its nuclear weapons programme, we will attack it," said Shaul Mofaz, who is also transportation minister.
"Other options are disappearing. The sanctions are not effective. There will be no alternative but to attack Iran in order to stop the Iranian nuclear programme," Mofaz told the Yediot Aharonot daily.
He stressed such an operation could only be conducted with US support.
A former defence minister and armed forces chief of staff, Mofaz hopes to replace embattled Ehud Olmert as prime minister and at the helm of the Kadima party.

Well, well, the 'stinking corpse' finally speaks.
And now public (deceptive) mission specific training should be made HIGHLY VISIBLE to everyone, for every reason imaginable

"We do not worship Iran, we worship
Allah. For patriotism is another name for paganism.
I say let this land [Iran] burn.
I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world" - Ayatollah Khomeini.
4:51 Hast thou not seen those unto whom a portion of the Scripture hath been given, how they believe in idols and false deities, and how they say of those (idolaters) who disbelieve: "These are more rightly guided than those who believe"?
2:134 This is a people that have passed away; they shall have what they earned and you shall have what you earn, and you shall not be called upon to answer for what they did.

And for your thoughtful consideration, as to why negotiations ought to have worked.... THIS.

Anyone think the Israelis are beyond this kind of development on their own?

Does NEVER AGAIN ring a bell?

Yes, but maybe Barry can 'talk' them out of it

By epaminondas on June 5, 2008 12:15 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Gertz:
Iran's elite IRGC may take direct control of new missile command
NICOSIA -- Iran has been examining the feasibility of creating a missile command.
Under the proposal, the missile command would be formed in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Officials said the command would give the elite IRGC military direct control of the nation's ballistic missile arsenal.

Get it....? The direct bosses of Hizballah, the most radical and most rewarded Khomeinist freaks in Iran will have DIRECT control of the missiles which WILL be nuclear armed unless someone else does something.

Revolutionary Guard Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, at a news conference, in Tehran, in September 2007.

"An independent command might be created in IRGC in order to fortify the structure and activities of the missile section," IRGC commander Gen. Mohammed Ali Jafari said.
Jafari said the proposal, which would require approval from Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

IRGC, with a separate army, navy and air force, has been deemed the leading military force in Iran.
In 2007, IRGC conducted the largest command and control missile exercise in Iranian history. IRGC fired hundreds of missiles within hours in a demonstration of sustained fire.
Jafari, appointed IRGC commander in September 2007, has sought to expand the force's military and technological capabilities. The general has been the architect of Iran's asymmetrical warfare doctrine, meant to confront much larger militaries, such as those of the United States.

Enter the 'moderates' ...Larijani now poised to challenge Ahmadinejad

By epaminondas on June 3, 2008 7:21 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

It's important to keep in mind that the current crop of freaks in Iran, of the Hojatieh bent, like Mesbah Yazdi, Jannati and Achmadinejad, were actually too crazy for Khomeini, who banned them. That does NOT MAKE strict Khomeinists, who called for Iran to burn if it advanced Islam, and was the first to call for the murder of the jews of Israel in post shah Iran, "moderate". The very idea transgresses any vision of truth or reality, and lives in a delusion that all 'truth' is relativistic.

GERTZ:

Iran is on a roll from all appearances. Teheran is riding the wave of international distaste for the U.S. presence in Iraq by exploiting Shi'ite connections there and in the Gulf states while continuing to develop its nuclear arsenal despite polite global disapproval and U.S. sanctions.
But all is not well in Teheran, especially for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The messianic leader has become alienated from most of Iran's elite and has been publicly at odds with his ministers and senior officials.
There is no longer any doubt that Ahmadinejad is losing clout, particularly with the financial and clerical elites. But Ahmadinejad still controls the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij, which could mobilize millions of young Iranians.
Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence sources have been tracking the rise of Iranian politician Ali Larijani, a former nuclear negotiator and outspoken critic of Ahmadinezhad,
Larijani won the first round of parliamentary elections March 14 and on May 28 was elected speaker.
From that powerful post, Larijani will be in position to directly challenge Ahmadinezhad's policies and position.
Larijani lost to Ahmadinezhad in the 2005 presidential election and was forced out by Ahmadinezhad last fall as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator after publicly expressing frustration with Ahmadinezhad's provocative diplomacy.
Larijani has criticized "immature statements and uncalculated decisions by some executive officials," and asserted that the Majles has a responsibility to "rectify the (government's) mistakes," according to the Isargaran website on Feb. 8.

Iran's new parliament speaker Ali Larijani, right, speaks with Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Ali Jafari during the opening session of Iran's new parliament, in Tehran on May 27. Reuters/Raheb Homavandi

He also said that his resignation as a SNSC secretary was due to "differing viewpoints" with Ahmadinezhad on the nuclear issue. Larijani has differed from Ahmadinezhad's aggressive foreign policy strategies and was quoted in an interview last month as saying Tehran must "leave negotiations open and avoid adventurism."
In February, he expressed concerns about Iran's economy, criticizing what he said were "serious flaws in the country's economic planning," which need to be "resolved by experts."
As a fully trusted aide to Khamenei, Larijani, has long been given carte blanche to protect Iran's nuclear program.
However, Iran has simultaneously been examining the feasibility of creating a separate missile command that would be under the direct control of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps which is loyal to Ahmadinezhad.
"An independent command might be created in IRGC in order to fortify the structure and activities of the missile section," IRGC commander Gen. Mohammed Ali Jafari said.
IRGC, with a separate army, navy and air force, has been deemed the leading military force in Iran.
In 2007, IRGC conducted the largest command and control missile exercise in Iranian history. IRGC fired hundreds of missiles within hours in a demonstration of sustained fire.
Jafari, appointed IRGC commander in September 2007, has sought to expand the force's military and technological capabilities. The general has been the architect of Iran's asymmetrical warfare doctrine, meant to confront much larger militaries, such as those of the United States.]
Larijani is projected using his new position to challenge Ahmadinejad's bid for a second term of office in elections next year.
Ahmadinejad and the IRGC champion an ideological -- even apocalyptic -- vision for Iran's near-term strategy while Larijani, with the elite mullahs' backing, favor a more pragmatic course to achieving regional hegemony.
Will it take a civil war for Iran to decide its course of action? Stay tuned as both sides duke it out while anticipating the November election results stateside.

Prior references to Larijani

Shia vs Sunni, 4get it..Young Palestinian trainees see Iran as new power in region - Story Two

By epaminondas on May 28, 2008 8:39 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

TEL AVIV -- Israeli military sources said Iran has been training hundreds of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip in courses that range from one month to a year. The sources said the shortest courses are reserved for Fatah or low-level operatives, while the long courses were meant for Hamas military officers.

Iran has correctly assessed that quranically inspired genocidal murderers will triumph over mafia - corruption led genocidal murderers

"Many young Palestinians in the Gaza Strip seek to obtain permission to train in Iran," a military source said. "The money is good and Iran is seen as the new power in the region."
On May 19, the military reported the arrest of a Palestinian insurgent trained in Iran. The insurgent, captured on April 15, was identified as Alaa Jihad Ouad Abu Madif, who lives in Karara in the southern Gaza Strip.
A military statement said Abu Madif was a member of the Abu Rish faction, which left the PLO in the 1990s and became aligned with Iran and Syria. Abu Madif was said to have participated in rocket attacks against Israel and was designated a suicide bomber.
"Abu Madif participated in a month-long military training course in Iran in May 2007, after being recruited to the Abu Rish faction a short time previously," the statement said.
The military said Abu Madif left the Gaza Strip for Egypt in 2007. From there, he and other Palestinian insurgents flew from Cairo to Damascus and then to Iran. In Iran, Abu Madif was trained by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
"In Iran, they were transferred to isolated military encampments in a mountainous region where they underwent comprehensive military training," the statement said. "The military training included physical training, navigation, weapons training -- including light and heavy weapons operation, anti-tank weapons, hand grenades -- target practice, assembly and operation of explosive devices and indoctrination lessons defining Israel and the United States as the sources of evil. They were also instructed in covert activities, such as discovering and losing reconnaissance."
Abu Madif and other trainees were said to have returned to the Gaza Strip around October 2007, after Hamas captured the Gaza Strip. From then, Abu Madif participated in missile fire against Israel and agreed to participate in a suicide bombing attack against Israeli soldiers along the border with the Gaza Strip. The attack was never carried out.

Why are there so few stories about the significance of the Muslim Brotherhood's most murderous faction allied solidly and without public qualms to the most murderous of Shia? Perhaps because what they have in common is far stronger than what separates them

"Abu Madif's interrogation throws light on the deep Iranian involvement in the encouragement of terror against Israel and in its support, its financing, and its military training for the activists of the various terror organizations operating in Gaza against Israel," the report said. "Syrian aid and assistance in the transfer of activists to Iran is also emphasized."

Not only that, Israel will fit on the head of a pin, so why worry?

By epaminondas on May 19, 2008 6:55 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Obama: Iran is so tiny, the USSR was huge, why is Bush so whiny, if anyone should worry, it's 'prolly' those juze

Likely Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama told supporters Iran is just a "tiny" country at a campaign stop in Oregon Sunday evening.
"Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us," Obama said.

Amazing !

Besides, a regional nuclear war won't affect us anyway, just those pushy juze, and they won't count after november, and the persians whose eliination might affect Nautica stock, but the owners are prolly republicans consumed by property ownership anyway.

So about just giving up Gaza, southern Lebanon, and pre-ceding the West Bank....y'know that power abhors a vacuum thing?

By epaminondas on May 13, 2008 4:53 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran via it's cat's paws of HAMAS and Hizballah will fill every void around Israel.
Iran since 1979 has been lucky in both the president at the birth of the revolutionary government, and the democratic party and it's will and it's perceived benefit at the ballot box ever since.

When we have a close, and important Obama adviser like Ret. Genl Merrill McPeak blaming Iran's behavior on George Bush, there is a big problem.
When we have former presidents unconsciously revealing their bigotry towards a religion AND against their fellow Americans by making cause with the reasonableness of Iran's paid whelps who said Jihad is the only solution, there is a major problem.

And here now is the man the (apparent) next democratic nominee for president wants to sit down with, yet remain perceived as strong....

Ahmadinejad: Israel to be 'swept away soon'

Tehran - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday that Israel would "be soon swept away" from the Palestinian Territories by the Palestinians.
It is the second time within less than three years that the Iranian president predicted the eradication of the Jewish state.

The first time was in 2005 when Ahmadinejad hoped that Israel would be eradicated from the Middle East map. "This terrorist and criminal state is backed by foreign powers, but this regime would soon be swept away by the Palestinians," Ahmadinejad said in a press conference in Tehran.

Referring to worldwide celebrations for the 60th anniversary of Israel's foundation, he said that "it would be futile to hold a birthday ceremony for something which is already dead.""As far as the regional countries are concerned, this regime does not exist," Ahmadinejad added. The Iranian president said last week that the anniversary feasts could not save this "rotten and stinking corpse."Ahmadinejad caused international outrage in the past by hoping for the eradication of Israel, the relocation of the Jewish state to Europe or Alaska and questioning the historic dimensions of the Holocaust.

(WrightMalleyPowersRiceZbigAyersDorhnMcPeak)
All one thing

Washington Times:
Sheik Yazeeb Khader, a Ramallah-based Hamas political activist and editor, said militant groups across the Middle East are gaining power at the expense of U.S.-backed regimes, just as Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip from forces loyal to U.S.-backed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
"What happened in Gaza in 2007 is an achievement; now it is happening in 2008 in Lebanon. It's going to happen in 2009 in Jordan and it's going to happen in 2010 in Egypt,"

We are entering an era of history when the results on the battlefield will determine the politics of the future, and not the other way around. The other side has determined that this must be so, because they are convinced they can win.

Who can blame them.

Iran ok's Russian troops in Iran ?

By epaminondas on May 10, 2008 7:23 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Think carefully about the consequences of this one for us AND for our ally(ies)...

Teheran-Moscow Caspian oil deal would allow Russia troop presence

LONDON --

Iran has been preparing to sign an agreement, supported by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that would enable a Russian military presence.
Western intelligence sources said Ahmadinejad also wants Iran to join the Shanghai Group, a security cooperation regime that includes China and Russia. The sources said Ahmadinejad believes an Iranian alliance with China and Russia could deter the United States.
The Teheran regime has been negotiating a military cooperation accord, meant to end a dispute with Moscow over the Caspian, that would permit Russia to station troops in parts of Iran.
Under the proposal, Teheran would abandon its claim for 20 percent of the crude oil and natural gas in the Caspian. Instead, Iran would agreed to 11 percent of the resources.
The sources said Iran has proposed to abide by a 1921 treaty that would give Russia the right to station troops. They said this would include a Russian military presence along the Caspian Sea.

9% apparently buys a lot.

Strike immediately.

Will Russia really act to 'guard' the Iranians from strikes against their nuclear weapons development?

First Law of Russian Foreign policy:

Anything which hurts the USA and its people -
is good for Russia in the big zero sum great game that doesn't exist.
EVEN IF that means a nuclear detonation in Israel or the USA
since they have judged that a full scale nuclear war will not break out

And of course, the reason the Hizballoid freaks are rampaging and killing? Americans and jews !

By epaminondas on May 9, 2008 4:10 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran on Friday accused the United States and Israel of fueling the deadly sectarian fighting in Lebanon between its Shiite militant Hezbollah ally and the Western-backed ruling majority.
"Adventurous efforts and interventions by the United States and the Zionist regime are the main cause of the continuous chaotic situation in Lebanon," foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said.

"Unfortunately, part of the political plot which was predicted ... has been executed," said Hosseini, who was quoted by ISNA and Fars news agencies.
"We hope that those who have been responsible for creating this situation exert the effort needed to restore stability and calm to Lebanon," he added, without elaborating.
Hezbollah gunmen seized control of west Beirut on Friday after a third day of battles with Sunni militants loyal to the Western-backed government that has killed at least 11 people, Lebanese security official have said.
Hosseini said Iran will pursue "tireless efforts ... to help different political groups reach an understanding."
The United States and Israel have repeatedly accused Iran of arming and financing Hezbollah in a bid to destabilise Lebanon -- a charge the Islamic republic has constantly denied.
The United States has condemned the violence in Lebanon and demanded that Hezbollah, which is also backed by Syria, stops its "destructive activities."
Israeli President Shimon Peres on Friday claimed the violence in Lebanon was fomented by Iran to further what he said was Tehran's goal to control all of the Middle East.

There's something about Johnny

By epaminondas on May 6, 2008 5:28 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

John Bolton: US should bomb Iranian camps

By Damien McElroy, Foreign Affairs Correspondent

Last Updated: 3:35PM BST 06/05/2008

John Bolton, America's ex-ambassador to the United Nations, has called for US air strikes on Iranian camps where insurgents are trained for war in Iraq
.

No John, really, how do you feel about it? Don't hold back, now.

Mr Bolton said that striking Iran would

represent a major step towards victory in Iraq. While he acknowledged that the risk of a hostile Iranian response harming American's overseas interests existed, he said the damage inflicted by Tehran would be "far higher" if Washington took no action.

"This is a case where the use of military force against a training camp to show the Iranians we're not going to tolerate this is really the most prudent thing to do," he said. "Then the ball would be in Iran's court to draw the appropriate lesson to stop harming our troops."

Mr Bolton, an influential former member of President George W Bush's inner circle, dismissed as "dead wrong" reported British intelligence conclusions that the US military had overstated the support that Iran was providing to Iraqi fighters.

Always ready to dance or talk. Little Johnny Bolton.

And just as no less than the NYT reported today....

Colonel Donald Bacon, a spokesman for the coalition in Baghdad, said captured fighters had told interrogators that thousands of Iraqi fighters were undergoing training in the Islamic Republic.

The main camp is located near the town of Jalil Azad, near Tehran, according to coalition officials.

The capture of Qais Khazali, a major figure in the Shia insurgency alongside Ali Mussa Daqduq, a senior Lebanese Hizbollah guerilla, last year yielded a treasure trove of information on Hizbollah's activities in Iraq.

It amazing they just don't wait until a dem is elected. But they just can help being what they are. Arrogant, racist, zealots eager to kill and to die for their version of god.

How the NIE has helped destroy American interests in one simple lesson

By epaminondas on May 1, 2008 6:47 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Financial Times:

Iran-Europe gas deals anger Washington
By Daniel Dombey in Washington, Anna Fifield in Tehran and Haig Simonian in Zurich
Published: April 30 2008 18:05 | Last updated: April 30 2008 18:05
The US and its allies are worried that the sanctions regime against Tehran is under threat from a possible new wave of European investment in Iran's strategically important gas sector.
Tehran has already concluded gas deals with Chinese and Malaysian companies - ending a protracted lull in investment in its energy sector - and has alarmed Washington by reaching an agreement with a Swiss group.
The dilemma threatens to expose the limited US influence over foreign companies strategic decisions.
Although Washington and its allies have convinced the United Nations Security Council to sign up to three sets of sanctions against Iran's nuclear and missile sectors and banks, it has been unable to broaden such international measures into the key energy sector.

If these corporations, and groups of corporations had REAL tangible fear that the US was going to take out Iranian nuclear assetts and oil and gas supplies form Iran were questionable in any following chaos, NO ONE would sign such an agreement. More, the signings mean, as Bill Gertz showed over and over HERE that those considered our friends and partners will more and more ally themselves economically so that they will be against the security needs of the people of the USA. We should recognize this, and recognize that this is natural. Nations have no friends, only interest, it is famously reported.

We need to conduct ourselves in recognition that while we would like the shared values of democracy and freedom of expression to make our interests common enough to be true friends, many other nations conduct themselves as being more 'sophisticated' than the rube, gun toting, nekulturny cowboys.

Thus the NIE, gives life to a process which is working against the safety of the the people, as more and more, when these agreement are signed, the businesses, their employees, and those who receive their supplies from Iran find themselves in the position that anything which disturbs this new relationship endangers their heat, electricity, mobility and jobs.

It is therefore ESSENTIAL that the western democracies take very seriously the idea that agreements of this kind IMPERIL their energy supplies.

Of course it is just this conundrum which finds itself expressed in the polls which tell us the USA and Israel are the most dangerous nations in the world. We had better be. Almost everyone else appears ready to sign with anyone for a buck. We had better be dangerous to such people.

Now, the US fears that a 25-year supply agreement concluded in March between Elektrizitäts-Gesellschaft Laufenburg (EGL) of Switzerland and Iran could encourage other deals, particularly in the gas sector, despite American calls for tougher sanctions against Tehran over its controversial nuclear programme. The Swiss government says the deal could be worth up to €27bn ($42bn, £21bn).
"The worry is that the Swiss deal will lead others, such as the Austrians, to confirm energy investments in Iran, and that companies like [France's] Total could then follow suit and sign contracts of their own," said one western diplomat. He pointed out that the EGL agreement ended a period in which European energy companies had largely confined themselves to agreeing only non-binding memoranda of understanding with Iran.
He added: "There is a lot of attention on sanctions on Iranian banks, but investment in the energy sector is much more important for Iran's economy." Iran has the world's second-largest proven gas reserves, but exports far below its potential.

What Axis of Evil? The REAL Inconvienient facts

By epaminondas on April 11, 2008 2:24 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

TIMES UK

Spy photos reveal 'secret launch site' for Iran's long-range missiles
A close examination of the photographs has indicated that the Iranians are following the same path as North Korea
The secret site where Iran is suspected of developing long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets in Europe has been uncovered by new satellite photographs.
The imagery has pinpointed the facility from where the Iranians launched their Kavoshgar 1 "research rocket" on February 4, claiming that it was in connection with their space programme.
Analysis of the photographs taken by the Digital Globe QuickBird satellite four days after the launch has revealed a number of intriguing features that indicate to experts that it is the same site where Iran is focusing its efforts on developing a ballistic missile with a range of about 6,000km (4,000 miles).
A previously unknown missile location, the site, about 230km southeast of Tehran, and the link with Iran's long-range programme, was revealed by Jane's Intelligence Review after a study of the imagery by a former Iraq weapons inspector. A close examination of the photographs has indicated that the Iranians are following the same path as North Korea, pursuing a space programme that enables Tehran to acquire expertise in long-range missile technology.

Jane's is not exactly known for either jumping the gun or political stances. They and THIS BLOG have reported, along with Bill Gertz on the numerous flights to NoKo the Iranians have taken to observe and cooperate with, fund and analyze the NoKo launches, developments, command and control, salvo firings, and offensive attack theories. Ideas that these actions, which are inarguable facts, do not presage the development of nuclear weapons are simply irresponsible, naive, dangerous and in the end destructive to this nation and our allies and friends, and I am not talking about Israel.

Geoffrey Forden, a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that there was a recently constructed building on the site, about 40 metres in length, which was similar in form and size to the Taepodong long-range missile assembly facility in North Korea.
Avital Johanan, the editor of Jane's Proliferation, said that the analysis of the Iranian site indicated that Tehran may be about five years away from developing a 6,000km ballistic missile. This would tie in with American intelligence estimates and underlines why President Bush wants the Polish and Czech components of the US missile defence system to be up and running by 2013.
The Czech Republic has now agreed to have a special radar system on its soil and the Polish Government is still negotiating with Washington over the American request to site ten interceptor missiles in Poland.
The Kavoshgar 1 rocket that was launched in the presence of President Ahmadinejad of Iran was based on the Shahab 3B missile, a version of the North Korean Nodong liquid-propellant missile.
Dr Forden said that the Kavoshgar launch did not demonstrate any significant advances in ballistic missile technology. "But it does reveal the likely future development of Iran's missile programme," he said.
At a meeting on February 25 between the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Iranians, UN inspectors confronted them with evidence of design studies for mounting nuclear warheads on long-range missiles. The Iranians denied any such aspirations.
However, according to Jane's Intelligence Review, the satellite photographs prove that the Kavoshgar 1 rocket was not part of a civilian space centre project but was consistent with Iran's clandestine programme to develop longer-range missiles.
The examination of the launch site revealed that it was part of a large and growing complex "with very high levels of security and recent construction activity". It was clearly "an important strategic facility", Dr Forden said.
The former Iraq weapons inspector said that Iran was benefiting from the North Korean missile programme and following its designs. The Taepodong 1 consisted of a liquid-propellant Nodong (like the Shahab 3) first stage, a liquid-propellant Scud second stage and a solid-propellant third stage.
"The production and testing facility next to the Kavoshgar 1 launch site would seem well positioned to contribute to this third stage," Dr Forden said.

Remember that TOR-M1, S300 missile defense Russia sold Syria-Iran?

By epaminondas on February 17, 2008 9:16 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Remember how at the time the Russkies said while the S-300 was a good missile defense, not to worry because their REAL defense was the S-400 which was good against US planes, ballistic missiles and low flying cruise missiles, and would be sold to no one?

Well it's the FIRST LAW OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY again, sports fans.

Background on the S-300 and S-400 is HERE

GERTZ:

DIA: Iran set to buy Russian missile defense system
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. intelligence community has reported Iran's intention to purchase a Russian-origin S-400 air and missile defense system.
Officials said the S-400 Triumph, also known as the SA-20, would enable Teheran to intercept U.S. ballistic missiles as well as fighter-jets.
"Iran is close to acquiring long-range SA-20 SAMs, and is developing a new Ashoura medium-range ballistic missile," Defense Intelligence Agency director Michael Maples said.
In testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee on Feb. 5, Maples said Iran was preparing to enhance its air and missile defense capability. He said Teheran was purchasing the latest systems deployed by the Russian military.
The S-400 Triumph was developed by the Almaz Central Design Bureau and stemmed from the S-300PMU air defense system. Industry sources said the S-400 could detect and destroy airborne targets at a distance of up to 400 kilometers, or 2.5 times greater than the S-300PMU.
Maples did not forecast when Iran would purchase the S-400, which Russia said was superior to the U.S.-origin PAC-3 missile defense system. Triumph includes radars said to be capable of detecting low-signature targets. (In other words, they are claiming it can see F-117 and B-2 as well at the new F-22 and F-35 stealth aircraft)
Industry sources said Russia's Fakel Machine Building Design Bureau has developed two missiles for Triumph. One so-called "big missile" was said to have a range of up to 400 kilometers and could destroy airborne early-warning and control aircraft as well as jammers.

The so-called "small missile" was identified as 9M96, designed to destroy aircraft and air-delivered weapons at ranges of more than 120 kilometers. The sources said this missile, equipped with an active homing head, could intercept non-strategic ballistic missiles.
Officials said Iran also acquired missiles, naval platforms and cruise missiles as well as upgrades from such suppliers as China, North Korea and Russia. They said these countries have supplied technology to enable Iran to achieve independent production.
"Iran is acquiring advanced weapons systems and supporting terrorist proxies," Maples said. "New capabilities include missile patrol boats, anti-ship cruise missiles, surface-to-air missile systems and an extended range variant of the Shihab-3 ballistic missile."
The Ashoura was described as an enhanced Shihab-3 variant with a range of 2,000 kilometers. Unlike the Shihab, the Ashoura was said to be a two-stage solid-fuel missile, designed for rapid launch and resistant to missile defense.

There is little or nothing to lose from publicly acknowledging and stating for the record that Russia is not just talking inimically about america, but us taking actions which will get americans killed if we act in favor of ourselves or our allies. In other words, while they themselves are not our enemies, they are helping those who self identify as our enemies.

WHY?

Speaking of Munich, and Czechoslovakia ..Report calls on U.S. to revoke policy presuming Arab threat to Israel

By epaminondas on February 3, 2008 7:30 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

WASHINGTON Gertz -- A new report by two senior U.S. military officers called for a significant revision of Washington's policy to maintain Israel's qualitative military edge in the region. The report argued that Arab countries, including Syria, no longer threaten the Jewish state.

"With the anachronistic strategic bifurcation of the Middle East into Israel and a monolithic group of Arab states no longer analytically useful -- if it ever was -- traditional assumptions regarding QME [qualitative military edge] no longer hold true," the report by the Washington Institute said.
Titled "U.S. Foreign Policy and Israel's Qualitative Military Edge: The Need for a Common Vision," the report argued that Arab states were prepared to form an alliance against Iran.

Some of the teachings from those VERY Arab states tells me that there is no way that they would make an alliance with the USA against Iran, and especially the JEWS. They may be ready to form an alliance against the Shia's ALONE, but that would be totally out of character.Why would they when WE (in the stead of our more needy European friends, who use vastly more mid-east oil, and have vastly less projection capabilities) will need to protect that oil NO MATTER WHAT? What do these guys base this opinion on?

Briere and Wunderle, both lieutenant colonels in the Joint Strategic Plans and Policy Directorate, said their report did not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. military or government, the latter of which seeks to sell $20 billion worth of weapons to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council states.
The authors asserted that Israel's nuclear arsenal has dissipated the strategic significance of U.S. arms sales to Arab allies.

Apples and oranges. Israeli use of nuclear weapons means the end of the world as we know it. Irradiated oil fields, hundreds of millions dead. Disease. Bodies. That kind of threat does not deter Syria, which will use only conventional weapons plus, and depend on the continuous pressure of demographic weight to eventually make the Israeli experiment fail. How long was it from the 1st Crusade to the fall of the last Templar stronghold?

They said many Middle East countries "find themselves strategically aligned in part with Israel's in their desire to contain and deter an increasingly aggressive" Iran.
"The sale of sophisticated conventional weaponry to the Arab states no longer necessarily implies a corresponding reduction in Israel's QME," the report, believed to be the first released by U.S. military officers on the topic, said.

The sale of qualitatively equal technical weapons to anything the Israeli's have to the same people who have tried to wipe out the jews in the levant since 1919 does not diminish the qualitative edge they have, nor does it increase their peril. Is that the argument?

"Instead, such a sale is a double-edged sword, reducing Israel's QME to the extent such Arab states continue to represent Israeli adversaries, but at the same time effectively increasing Israel's QME by improving the military capability of states aligned with it in their desire to deter Iranian threats and aggression."

That is a monumentally arrogant assumption to justify sales of weapons to oil owners. When have these nations EVER joined together and gone to war on their own? Even if they broke history's lessons and DID so, how would their populations hold up as Al Jazeera et al are asking why they are in league with the zionists against brothers?

The report called on Israel to drop any objection to U.S. arms sales as part of a commitment by Washington to support the maintenance of the qualitative military edge of the Jewish state.

These guys can convince themselves of anything.

Briere and Wunderle said U.S. exports to such countries as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries were vital for American foreign policy as well as its defense industry.

$$ ??

"Israel must cease its legitimate but misguided opposition to U.S. government weapons sales to its Arab Gulf allies," the report said. "Iran poses an existential threat to Israel. The government of Israel needs to acknowledge that the United States and Israel will require well-armed Arab allies in confronting and containing the Iranian regime."

Let's flip this around and imagine it's 1980. How would americans be thinking if Israel asked us to understand why they were selling their most advanced weapons to the Warsaw Pact because it satisfied a more local threat reduction, and helped their defense industry?

Instead, the report offered a new definition of QME that examines Arab threat scenarios, prospects of regime change as well as Israeli military capabilities. Briere and Wunderle argued that QME must consider U.S. and Israeli foreign policy interests as well as regional weapons, manpower, training, leadership, and tactical capability.
"The government of Israel favors an expansive definition of QME-related threats, whereas the United States advocates an interpretation based upon realistic short- to mid-term threats," the report said. "These differing views of QME create disagreements between Israel and the United States on some arms sales to the Middle East."
The report was released amid an examination by Congress of the proposed U.S. sale of the Joint Direct Attack Munition to Saudi Arabia. Many House members have expressed concern that JDAM, which converts general purpose bombs into precision-guided munitions, would pose a threat to Israel as well as U.S. forces in the Middle East.
"If another country -- likely Russia -- replaces the United States as the principal source of military hardware and training, the current levels of access and influence afforded to it would be lost," the report said. "The United States is far more likely to limit weapons sales to less capable export variants or smaller quantities than other exporting nations."

Say, what was that Patrick Swayze flick ? The one without "baby" in the corner.

By epaminondas on February 3, 2008 7:13 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

GERTZ:

Iran networking with Latin America's underclass
Welcome to Iran's new playground, located just south of the U.S. border.
Iran has been pumping billions of dollars into creating a network of agents in just about every country in South and Central America. The network has forged close ties to everybody from politicians to organized crime.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, left, Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega, center, and First Lady Rosario Murillo, in Managua, on Jan. 14, 2007.

Iran has gotten lots of help from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Chavez has introduced Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to leaders on the continent and allowed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to train in his country.
But IRGC has chosen to seek out the lower level of society. Iranian agents formed alliances with drug traffickers throughout South America in an effort to be able to export terrorism north toward the United States.
Ahmadinejad has formed strong ties with Bolivia as well. Again, Iranian money and Shi'ite fronts have blended Islamic terrorism with South American crime.
Iran has also made inroads in Ecuador. Chavez convinced Ecuador President Rafael Correa to meet Ahmadinejad, which led to a strategic dialogue with a key country in Latin America.
That has left the United States very uncomfortable. For 100 years, Latin America was regarded as the U.S. sphere of influence, a turf defended even at the height of the Cold War.
But Teheran is not Moscow and Iran has exploited large Shi'ite populations in such countries as Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay.

The initiative is a good thing to have. Our enemies do not fart around waiting while Ann Coulter promises to campaign for Hillary because John McCain doesn't cause 'conservative' orgasms. The mullahs should be spending every second worried about what WE are doing, and what we MIGHT do.

Today, beginning with the Iraq Study Group's report and thru the incredible folding of George Bush towards his sunni "allies", and the 2007 NIE's Munich, the mullahs have had the beliefs of those who say Allah will stay our hand and guide them to victory strengthened every day.

Why would they not continue along the path they are on?

Some morning Iran ..chapter two ...dizinformaziya

By epaminondas on January 5, 2008 7:36 AM | 1 Comment | No TrackBacks

NIE may have been based on Iran disinformation

Senior U.S. national security officials (SUCH AS? Step up to the plate, gents) suspect the Iranian government successfully carried out a disinformation operation against U.S. intelligence agencies that led to the recent National Intelligence Estimate reversing earlier assessments of an active Iranian nuclear arms program.

President Bush being asked about the Iran NIE at a White House press conference.

The officials said there are indications that the intelligence used for the estimate, published in part last month, was based on deliberately misleading information.

Not just that, but information paced with naifs who want to hide from the world

No details of how the estimate was produced have been made public, but there have been reports that it was based on both intercepted communications and human sources.
Both types of sources have been used in the past by American adversaries to spoof U.S. intelligence, according to the officials.
Asked if the NIE reversal was the result of a deliberate Iranian strategic deception operation, one senior U.S. intelligence official who defended the estimate said “we did hold this up to the light.”
“One of the alternative scenarios, and we gamed more than half a dozen, was could this be on the part of the Iranian government a strategic deception in order to conceal a continued nuclear weapons program?”
“And I think the overall judgment is that is plausible but not likely and that the overall assessment of the community is contained in the words you see in the key judgments: high confidence, high confidence, high confidence.”
But two other senior officials said the likelihood that the CIA, which took the lead in formulating the analysis, was fooled, is very high.
U.S. intelligence agencies have no spies inside the Iranian government and large amounts of intercepted communications are suspect and believed to be a main source of intelligence disinformation, these officials said.

Some morning Iran ..chapter one

By epaminondas on January 5, 2008 7:19 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Bahrain hit by 'organized' Shi'ite riots likely sparked by Iran

GERTZ: ABU DHABI — Bahrain has been torn by the worst Shi'ite rioting in years. Bahraini special forces, using tear gas and rubber bullets, confronted thousands of Shi'ites during the Id Al Adha holiday last week in Manama.

Young Shi'ite rioters carry an injured man after a clash with the security forces in Bahrain.

"We believe the riots were organized by foreign elements," a Bahraini security source said. Officials said Iran was thought to have inspired the riots.

The Shi'ite opposition said Bahraini security forces stormed a mosque in Manama on Dec. 21. The opposition said the Interior Ministry launched a crackdown that included the arrest of opposition leaders.

"They were faced brutally by the Special Forces, which entered the mosque while pursuing the rest who fled towards the nearby Water Garden park," the Haq Movement for Liberty and Democracy said. "Tear gas was fired on the people in the park."

The Interior Ministry said police tried to stop a rampage by rioters. The ministry said the rioters torched a police vehicle and destroyed property.

"After following legal procedures, they were arrested and transferred to the general prosecution office," the ministry said.

The riots were said to have taken place nearly every night last week. Officials said the riots intensified after a protester died of tear gas inhalation during a battle with police. On Dec. 21, Bahraini security forces arrested seven opposition members.

Bahrain contains the U.S. Fifth Fleet and naval element of U.S. Central Command. The U.S. embassy has warned of continued violence in the kingdom.

Iran and Nicaragua...quick get Swayze and Sheen for a sequel

By epaminondas on December 25, 2007 10:24 AM | 2 Comments | No TrackBacks

Once again, Ortega's impossible dislike, conjoined now with Chavez's true sickness remind us that while we focus properly on the dangers of salafist and khomeinist murderers, there are murderer's whelps around.

Four consecutive American administrations have designated the Islamic theocracy a State Sponsor of Terrorism since 1984 for ordering Hezbollah and Iranian intelligence operatives, sometimes posing as diplomats, to conduct bombings, assassinations and kidnappings worldwide.

Iran making push into Nicaragua

Web Posted: 12/18/2007 10:25 PM CST

Todd Bensman
Express-News MONKEY POINT, Nicaragua — The second military helicopter in as many days hovered over the jungle and then landed to a most unwelcome reception from several dozen angry Rama Indian and Creole villagers.
Rupert Allen Clear Duncan, a leader of some 400 Creole who live along the shoreline, confronted the foreigners dressed in suits and military uniforms that day in March and demanded to know the purpose of their aerial trespasses.

"This is our land; we have always lived here, and you don't have our permission to be here," Duncan spat, when refused the courtesy of an explanation.

Not until Duncan threatened to have his machete-waving followers damage the aircraft did they learn that some of the men were from the Islamic Republic of Iran and had come promising to establish a Central American foothold in the middle of their territory.

As part of a new partnership with Nicaragua's Sandinista President Daniel Ortega, Iran and its Venezuelan allies plan to help finance a $350 million deep-water port at Monkey Point on the wild Caribbean shore, and then plow a connecting "dry canal" corridor of pipelines, rails and highways across the country to the populous Pacific Ocean. Iran recently established an embassy in Nicaragua's capital.

The real problem here is not juts this, but the greater than 30 members of the Iranian embassy and consulate staff, completely out of line with the sizes of both nations. What do Misters, Brill, Van Diepen, and Fingar have to say

about this?

The following are STILLL wanted for murder in Argentina:

Ali Akbar Rafsanjani , Iranian president, widely heralded as a pragmatic moderate.
Ali Fallahijan , Minister of Intelligence and Security.
Ali Akbar Velayati , Foreign Minister.
Mohsen Rezai , commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Ahmad Vahidi , commander of the Qods Force.
Mohsen Rabbani , in 1994 Iranian cultural attaché in Buenos Aires.
Ahmad Reza Asghari , (also known as Mohsen Randjbaran ), third secretary of the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires .
Imad Moughnieh , head of Hezbollah's External Security Service in 1994, a position he holds to this day, as well as serving as Hassan Nasrallah's military deputy.

Continue reading Iran and Nicaragua...quick get Swayze and Sheen for a sequel.

The Ultimate Iranian Defense - Iranian People, don't talk and don't listen, and don't watch

By epaminondas on December 17, 2007 8:17 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

A few years ago it was satellite TV, now,.......

Iran shuts down 24 cafes in Internet crackdown
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iranian police have closed down 24 Internet cafes and other coffee shops in as many hours, detaining 23 people, as part of a broad crackdown on immoral behavior in the Islamic state, official media said on Sunday.
The action in Tehran province was the latest move in a campaign against fashion and other practices deemed incompatible with Islamic values, including women flouting strict dress codes and barber shops offering men Western hair styles.
"Using immoral computer games, storing obscene photos ... and the presence of women wearing improper hijab were among the reasons why they have been closed down," Colonel Nader Sarkari, a provincial police commander, said.

Since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the presidency in 2005, promising a return to the values of the 1979 Islamic revolution, hardliners have pressed for tighter controls on "immoral behaviour."
Sarkari told the official IRNA news agency that police had inspected 435 coffee shops in the past 24 hours, and 170 had been warned.
The report did not make clear whether they were all Internet cafes, which have mushroomed in Iran over the past few years and are popular especially among young people. Police were not immediately available for comment.
"Twenty-three people were detained," Sarkari said, adding 11 of them were women.

Many young Iranians are avid users of the Internet, some using chat rooms to socialise with the opposite sex. Mingling between sexes outside marriage is banned and many Web sites considered unIslamic are blocked by the authorities.
The cafe crackdown coincides with a winter campaign against women wearing tight trousers tucked into long boots and other "improper dress" such as short overcoats and hats instead of scarves.
Enforcement of Islamic dress codes that require women to
cover their hair and disguise the shape of their bodies has become stricter since 2005, following eight years of reformist rule.
Police regularly clamp down on skimpier clothing and looser headscarves in the summer, but usually for only a few weeks. This year the campaign has run into the winter.
Women found dressing inappropriately may be warned and repeat offenders can be taken to a police station and fined.
"Our people want their women to be able to go in the streets with respect and want their dignity to be protected," senior Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami told worshippers in Tehran on Friday. "Our people want the society to be morally clean."
In a separate campaign, IRNA said police had inspected 275 restaurants in the capital to check compliance with a new ban on smoking in public places. The ban includes water pipes, known in Iran as qalyan, offered in some outlets.
Of those, 138 received a warning and 17 were shut down, police official Mohammad Reza Alipour said.

It's time to break out the real main weapons.....nekid wimmin and mickeydeeeeeeeeeeees. Leave no one alive.

Well, this point has been made here already and now Israel herself says it..NIE can CAUSE a war

By epaminondas on December 16, 2007 7:22 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Israel: US report on Iran may spark war
JERUSALEM - Israel's public security minister warned Saturday that a U.S. intelligence report that said Iran is no longer developing nuclear arms could lead to a regional war that would threaten the Jewish state.
In his remarks — Israel's harshest criticism yet of the U.S. report — Avi Dichter said the assessment also cast doubt on American intelligence in general, including information about Palestinian security forces' crackdown on militant groups. The Palestinian action is required as part of a U.S.-backed renewal of peace talks with Israel this month.
Dichter cautioned that a refusal to recognize Iran's intentions to build weapons of mass destruction could lead to armed conflict in the Middle East.
He compared the possibility of such fighting to a surprise attack on Israel in 1973 by its Arab neighbors, which came to be known in Israel for the Yom Kippur Jewish holy day on which it began.
"The American misconception concerning Iran's nuclear weapons is liable to lead to a regional Yom Kippur where Israel will be among the countries that are threatened," Dichter said in a speech in a suburb south of Tel Aviv, according to his spokesman, Mati Gil. "Something went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity of the Iranian nuclear threat."
Dichter didn't elaborate on the potential scenario but seemed to imply that a world that let its guard down regarding Iran would be more vulnerable to attack by the Islamic regime.

Actually the scenario I have in mind is more along the lines of an Israel isolated in a world which always has either participated in or ignored the killing of jews as a historical game, and did NOTHING (or helped) as the majority of jewish people on the planet were made the product of industrial extermination, STRIKES FIRST with the only weapons which can ensure that Iran's weapons program is destroyed

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had disputed the U.S. intelligence assessment this month, saying that Iran continues its efforts to obtain components necessary to produce nuclear weapons. Tehran still poses a major threat to the West and the world must stop it, Olmert said.
Israel has for years been warning that Iran is working on nuclear weapons and backed the United States in its international efforts to exert pressure on Iran to stop the program. Israel considers Iran a significant threat because of its nuclear ambitions, its long-range missile program and repeated calls by its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, for the disappearance of Israel.
Iran says its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes.
Israel will work to change the American intelligence agencies' view of Iran, said Dichter, a former chief of Israel's Shin Bet secret service agency.
"A misconception by the world's leading superpower is not just an internal American occurrence," Dichter said.
Any future faulty U.S. intelligence on the actions of Palestinian security forces could damage peace efforts, Dichter said.
"Those same (intelligence) arms in the U.S. are apt to make a mistake and declare that the Palestinians have fulfilled their commitments, which would carry with it very serious consequences from Israel's vantage point," Dichter said.

And the NIE details begin to emerge...a crock? When, now or then?

By epaminondas on December 5, 2007 4:54 PM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

From the evil heart of neocondom...The Weekly Standard

Consider that on July 11, 2007, roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (emphasis added):

Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution.

DUH...no really? How much are you making for that conclusion?

MONEY LINE ALERT !!!!!!

We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons--despite its international obligations and international pressure.
This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons.
This paragraph appeared under the subheading: "Iran Assessed As Determined to Develop Nuclear Weapons." And the entirety of Fingar’s 22-page testimony was labeled "Information as of July 11, 2007." No part of it is consistent with the latest NIE, in which our spooks tell us Iran suspended its covert nuclear weapons program in 2003 "primarily in response to international pressure" and they "do not know whether (Iran) currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."
The inconsistencies are more troubling when we realize that, according to the Wall Street Journal, Thomas Fingar is one of the three officials who were responsible for crafting the latest NIE. The Journal cites "an intelligence source" as describing Fingar and his two colleagues as "hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials." (The New York Sundrew attention to one of Fingar’s colleagues yesterday.)

Last ruminations on the 2007 Iran NIE guess? Probably not

By epaminondas on December 5, 2007 7:32 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Stream of thoughts on the contradictory, inexplicable NIE on Iran

American intelligence is a shamble of cyclic politically driven conclusions, and is without credibility ANYWHERE,

therefore so are American pronouncement of policy based on it. Therefore this entire episode is a CALAMITY for us WORLDWIDE

Iran now has a get of jail free card of galactic proportions.

The CIA launched a preemptive attack to prevent Bush from any justification in preemption of Iran's nuclear program before he left office.

In 2003 we learned years later there was official dissent from the NIE's conclusion about Iraq and WMD. Where is that dissent today, on this NIE?

Why are people not being fired left and right for leading the national effort astray for 4+ years?

Why was the executive BLINDSIDED by this report? Who is in charge of the American government and policy?

None of the above is true and Israel has lost the epic battle within the US govt begun between George Marshall and Harry Truman. We are going 'arab'.

None of the above is true and it's about Iraq.

Bush is completely burnt out and others are running the show in the day to day grind of memo, and policy making minutiae building until he gets blindsided.

OR....none of the above is true and the CIA is as smart as a bag of hammers. They were totally wrong before (as they were in 2003 on Iraq) or they are totally wrong now. Or both.

The entire system is broken and we need something OTHER than the CIA to do the job we need done.

The NIE, Iran, and accuracy regarding nuclear weapons

By epaminondas on December 4, 2007 7:24 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

The National Intelligence Estimate which this morning is the center of some controversial claims can be downloaded HERE. It is based on information the national intelligence community has judged to be accurate as of 10/3/07

Keys:

This NIE is an extensive reexamination of the issues in the May 2005 assessment.
This Estimate focuses on the following key questions:
• What are Iran’s intentions toward developing nuclear weapons?
• What domestic factors affect Iran’s decisionmaking on whether to develop nuclear weapons?
• What external factors affect Iran’s decisionmaking on whether to develop nuclear weapons?
• What is the range of potential Iranian actions concerning the development of nuclear
weapons, and the decisive factors that would lead Iran to choose one course of action over
another?
• What is Iran’s current and projected capability to develop nuclear weapons? What are our
key assumptions, and Iran’s key chokepoints/vulnerabilities?
This NIE does not assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons.

Confidence in Assessments. Our assessments and estimates are supported by information that
varies in scope, quality and sourcing. Consequently, we ascribe high, moderate, or low levels of
confidence to our assessments, as follows:
• High confidence generally indicates that our judgments are based on high-quality
information, and/or that the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment.
A “high confidence” judgment is not a fact or a certainty, however, and such judgments still
carry a risk of being wrong.

THE MONEY LINES:

Key Judgments
A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons
program1; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is
keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence
that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium
enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing
international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously
undeclared nuclear work.
• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were
working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of
intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC
assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt
to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.)
• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons
program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop
nuclear weapons.
• We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently
have a nuclear weapon.
• Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined
to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment
that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure
suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged
previously.
B. We continue to assess with low confidence that Iran probably has imported at least
some weapons-usable fissile material, but still judge with moderate-to-high confidence it
has not obtained enough for a nuclear weapon.

In essence, this NIE is saying, whoops? The basis of our foreign policy assumptions, and estimates from 2003 until October have been DEAD WRONG?

I don't hear the sound of heads rolling, somewhere. This is either a serious mistake, or we have made a serious mistake.
The American people need to know why.
Or is this Karl Rove's way of helping Mr. Obama?
More likely that we have some kind of play to isolate Israel in the forlorn hope that the Sunni gulf states will adhere to American policy, while passing this entire mess downstream to a different president.
Mr. Bush from the outside, given what has been going on with Condi and her ABSURD statements regarding peace in the middle east, appears from the outside to simply have been burnt out.

2 early predictors of Iran action

By epaminondas on December 1, 2007 7:59 AM | 1 Comment | No TrackBacks

U.S. Central Command fuel orders 'more than double' the norm

GERTZ - ABU DHABI — The U.S. is organizing increased fuel reserves in the Gulf, giving rise to speculation about military preparations in the region.

Sources said the U.S. Central Command has increased orders of fuel for naval vessels deployed in the Gulf. They said Centcom, in cooperation with the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, plans to establish a huge fuel reserve with supplies that could last more than two months.

Ships from the U.S. Fifth Fleet on patrol in the Persian Gulf region. cusnc.navy.mil

"Orders for fuel for Centcom has been running more than double than usual," a source said. "Tankers are being chartered from several locations in Europe."

In November, the U.S. Navy's Military Sealift Command, or MSC, issued tenders for four tankers to transport at least one million barrels of fuel for aircraft and surface vessels. The tankers were meant for Gulf ports and operations in the region.

Over the last two years, MSC has usually placed orders for one or two tankers per month for operations in Iraq and the Gulf. The Fifth Fleet has been based in Bahrain and is responsible for operations in the Gulf.

The sources said the tankers would transport fuel from such Gulf Cooperation Council countries as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to Bahrain. They said fuel would also be acquired from Saudi Arabia, which raised its annual allocation to the U.S. military from 1.5 million barrels in 2006 to nearly eight million in 2007.

The U.S. Navy has sought to maintain at least two carrier strike groups in the Gulf. In mid-November, the navy conducted exercises in anti-mine and anti-submarine warfare.

"More fuel means more activity, and this could be the beginning of something," the source said.

The United States has not cited the fuel shipments as part of military preparations in the Gulf. On Monday, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the best way to confront Iran's nuclear weapons program was through international diplomatic pressure. Gates said military force should remain a last resort.

"We are engaged in diplomacy with Iran," Gates said. "The administration has made clear that it is prepared to have broader dialogue if [the Iranians] make commitments to stop enriching."

Continue reading 2 early predictors of Iran action.

Step away from that compact, and put your hands up

By epaminondas on November 12, 2007 8:21 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iranian police have unveiled a list of "vices" -- including makeup, un-Islamic dress and decadent movies -- being targeted in an ongoing moral crackdown, a conservative newspaper reported on Monday.
The list was published in the Jomhuri Eslami newspaper as part of a police drive launched in April which has seen the arrest of "thugs", raids on underground parties, seizures of satellite dishes, and street checks of improperly dressed individuals.

Wait till they begin checking american high schools.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week urged police to keep up its crackdown on social vices, saying they must "fulfill their duties regardless of some opposition and propaganda."

Achmadinejad is NOT the problem. He is a SYMPTOM. He has said and done nothing different from ANY of their leaders since 1979, he is just more noticed

Some moderates have questioned the need for the moral crackdown but conservatives have applauded police for a drive they say is popular with the public and necessary to improve security in society.
"The list of illegal behaviour against the security and morality of society which will be pursued by police... has been announced," the Jomhuri Eslami said.
The list, which does not make any reference to gender, highlights the fight against extortionists and drug dealers as well as what it terms "inappropriate" clothing which is short, tight or seethrough.
Thousands of women have been warned for wearing tight, short coats and skimpy headscarves and for flouting the Islamic dress code, which requires every post-pubescent woman to cover their hair and body contours.

Speaking of Chavez and true fascism....

By epaminondas on November 3, 2007 6:52 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

GERTZ-Iran accelerates efforts in America's backyard

Iran is not waiting for the Bush administration to decide what to do about Teheran's nuclear program. Iran is moving to attack the United States through the back door.
Iranian opposition sources said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has ordered an acceleration of efforts to expand Teheran's presence in South and Central America. They said Ahmadinejad wants an Iranian presence that would enable massive attacks on U.S. interests in key South American countries as well as the ability to send terrorists into the United States on short notice.

Never mind terrorists, as detailed here the submarines Chavez wants from the Russians (have they refused yet to sell ANYTHING? In 1999 they offered to sell Akula's to China ,and are NOW SELLING THEM TO INDIA..Jane's Defense Weekly), are easily capable of striking the USA from DOCKSIDE.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran has acquired portions of a classified Iranian government report that details Iran's plans to infiltrate many countries south of the U.S. border. The report by Iran's Supreme National Security Council outlines plans for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the nation's elite military unit, to establish a presence within a stone-throw's distance of Arizona, Texas and New Mexico.

The IRGC priority is to build a presence in Mexico. The 125,000-member IRGC, which controls 30 percent of Iran's economy, would deploy within Shi'ite and Alawite communities and buy its way into the corrupt government in Mexico City. IRGC would also infiltrate the Mexican arms, drug and illegal migrant smuggling network that operates along the U.S. border.

This is too obvious to be any kind of surprise to anyone competent enough to place themselves in Iranian shoes.

But IRGC does not want to be confined to Mexico. The plan also called for an Iranian terrorist presence in Bolivia, Columbia, Nicaragua, Uruguay and Venezuela. Venezuela has already become a leading ally of Ahmadinejad, and Caracas was deemed as one of two headquarters for the IRGC in South America. The other was Managua, Nicaragua.

Continue reading Speaking of Chavez and true fascism.....

Iran orders Mig-29 Fighter engines from Russia for its home built new fighter

By epaminondas on October 28, 2007 7:51 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

GERTZ:

MOSCOW — Iran has ordered Russian engines for its latest indigenous combat aircraft.
Russian industry sources said Iran has submitted an order for 50 engines from Chernyshev Moscow Machine Works. The sources said the engines would be installed on Iran's new indigenous Lightening fighter-jet.
"There will probably be an agreement signed during the visit of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin," an industry source said.

On Oct. 16, Putin arrived in Teheran for a two-day visit and warned against any military strike on Iran. The Russian president attended a Caspian Sea energy summit and discussed defense and military cooperation with Iran.
The sources said Iran has ordered 50 RD-33 turbo-jet engines, produced by Chernyshev for the MiG-29SMT fighter-jet. The Moscow-based Kommersant business daily said the worth of the Iranian order was estimated at $150 million.
"The deal will help Teheran establish serial production of its domestically-manufactured jets," Kommersant said. "Russia in its turn hopes to gain access to an up-and-coming market."
In September, Iran announced serial production of Lightening, or Azarakhsh in Farsi. The Iranian Defense Ministry said the fighter-jet, developed by the state-owned Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries, was modeled on the F/A-18 of the United States.
"We will soon be able to produce jets like Azarakhsh on an industrial scale to add them to the arsenal of the Iranian military," Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Najar said.
Kommersant said Iran's Lightening was a variant of the F-5E fighter-jet, procured in the 1970s. The newspaper said Teheran increased the length and weight of its F-5E, then reshaped the platform's tail fin and engine unit.
Under the project, Iran has replaced the original two U.S.-built J85-GE-21B engines with Russia's RD-33s. Lightening was also said to have received an Iranian radar based on Russia N-019ME Topaz system.

Continue reading Iran orders Mig-29 Fighter engines from Russia for its home built new fighter.

Israel and the United States plan to jointly develop a missile and rocket defense system

By epaminondas on October 28, 2007 6:03 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

If we look at the missile threat which faces us, our forces and our allies. we have presently the 'long' range No Dong, and Shihab (some 1200-2000 miles), somewhat guided artillery rockets like Iskander, Zelzal, and Scuds, and then Katyusha style, Qassam type bombardment rockets. These are three totally different kinds of threats.

'Iron Dome', 'David's Sling' systems to provide multi-layered missile and rocket defense

GERTZ -- WASHINGTON — Israel and the United States plan to jointly develop a missile and rocket defense system that could intercept weapons ranging from Qassam-class missiles to Iran's Shihab-3 ballistic missile.
Officials said the agreement was reached during a recent visit to Washington by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. On Oct. 16, Barak met Defense Secretary Robert Gates and agreed to establish a panel to examine an Israeli proposal to augment missile defense cooperation to include short-range rockets and missiles.

Under the proposal, the United States would finance an Israeli project to intercept short-range missiles and rockets. Over the last year, Israel has launched the David's Sling and Iron Dome projects, meant to protect against missiles and rockets with a range of 10 to 280 kilometers. The United States has maintained similar programs.

"We've agreed to enter into a discussion, a collaborative working relationship, to see what we can develop," Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said.
"If all goes well, in two and a half years we can do our first trials [of Iron Dome]," Barak said.

If nothing shows how complacent and slow governments are, and how lacking in a sense of urgency, it is that last statement. Consider the war of the summer of 2006, I would think a crash 24x7x365 program would be on, to defeat the Qassam and Katyusha, and the Zelzal type as well.

Given the urgent need for Israel and its citizens, and the urgent need for our troops many of whom are as vulnerable to this kind of attack as every single Israeli citizen.....

Why has it taken so long for action to occur
despite the obvious and compelling need of this threat?

Who in western the US and Israeli govts would
oppose such a program and why?

Is there something about the west and democracies

that prevents our responding to unpleasant truths,
and unavoidable pain before the pain
and truth causes death and destruction?

Defense Update goes further....

Israel has suffered Katyusha attacks since the mid 1970s, as Palestinian guerillas, based in South Lebanon used short range 107mm rockets to bypass the border obstacle ('electronic fence") established along the Lebanese border, to prevent terrorist infiltrations.

For 30 years Israel avoided the decision and commitment to establish adequate defenses against such threats. Israel willingly left this capability gap open, despite spending tens of millions of dollars on a joint program with the US to develop laser defenses to counter rocket threats. The prevailing argument was that the risks of rocket attacks did not justify diverting the huge funding from other, higher priority programs.

Continue reading Israel and the United States plan to jointly develop a missile and rocket defense system.

Meanwhile, in a clear determination to achieve a peaceful resolution....

By epaminondas on October 23, 2007 10:30 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks

Iran won't negotiate over atomic rights: president
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will not negotiate with anyone about its right to nuclear technology, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday, hours before talks aimed at defusing an atomic row with the West were to start in Rome.
Western nations accuse Iran of seeking to build an atomic bomb, a charge Tehran denies, insisting it only wants to master atomic technology so it can make electricity and save its huge oil and gas reserves for export.
"We are in favor of talks but we will not negotiate with anyone about our right to nuclear technology," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying by Iranian state television during his trip to Armenia, which ended on Tuesday.
"The party which should set conditions is Iran not the other party," he was quoted as saying.
In comments carried by the Fars News Agency, the president also repeated Iran's position that it would not suspend uranium enrichment, the key demand of the U.N. Security Council.

How many ways can the guy say "BOOM" before it sinks in? He must (and rightfully) be wondering how the west ever achieved anything if we are this stupid.

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